Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,403,046 Vol.
$1,403,046 Vol.
2. Mai 2026
<40
Nein
40-64
Ja
65-89
Nein
90-114
Nein
115-139
Nein
140-164
Nein
165-189
Nein
190-214
Nein
215-239
Nein
240+
Nein
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,403,046 Vol.
$1,403,046 Vol.
2. Mai 2026
<40
$199,503 Vol.
Nein
40-64
$235,105 Vol.
Ja
65-89
$340,735 Vol.
Nein
90-114
$276,547 Vol.
Nein
115-139
$135,434 Vol.
Nein
140-164
$62,547 Vol.
Nein
165-189
$45,512 Vol.
Nein
190-214
$46,496 Vol.
Nein
215-239
$32,908 Vol.
Nein
240+
$28,258 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,403,046Enddatum
2. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$1,403,046Enddatum
2. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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