The 72.5% probability assigned to “No” reflects the White House’s routine scheduling of closed-press executive time, intelligence briefings, and private policy meetings that restrict daily public photo opportunities. Mid-week bilateral talks in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced extensive coverage on May 14-15, yet early-week and weekend segments of the schedule follow established patterns of limited visibility, including travel returns and in-town pool calls without guaranteed editorial images. Traders weigh these structural constraints against isolated public events, such as the announced National Prayer Event on May 17, concluding that at least one day in the May 11-17 window is likely to lack a qualifying tagged photograph.