Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert160-179 59%
180-199 27%
140-159 10.7%
200-219 2.6%
$1,865,821 Vol.
$1,865,821 Vol.
18. Aug. 2026
140-159
11%
160-179
59%
180-199
27%
200-219
3%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 59%
180-199 27%
140-159 10.7%
200-219 2.6%
$1,865,821 Vol.
$1,865,821 Vol.
18. Aug. 2026
140-159
$274,121 Vol.
11%
160-179
$159,301 Vol.
59%
180-199
$122,845 Vol.
27%
200-219
$121,046 Vol.
3%
220-239
$103,005 Vol.
<1%
240-259
$131,069 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$108,245 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$91,008 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$83,049 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$43,368 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$42,323 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$29,969 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$25,087 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$22,118 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$15,300 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$15,044 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$6,196 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$5,696 Vol.
<1%
500+
$43,869 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volumen
$1,865,821Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$1,865,821Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent X activity, averaging roughly 20–30 posts daily amid ongoing commentary on SpaceX launches, Tesla production, Grok updates, and AI topics, has anchored trader consensus around the 160–179 range at 58.5% implied probability. With the counting window closing August 18, partial tallies through mid-August show steady engagement without major spikes or quiet periods, aligning with his typical weekly volume. The 180–199 bin at 26.5% reflects the chance of a late surge from high-engagement threads, while lower brackets remain thin. Market positioning tracks verified posting cadence rather than speculation, with final resolution hinging on the next 24 hours of replies and original posts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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