Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering $360 million domestic opening in late July established it as the clear frontrunner for second-biggest 2026 debut, eclipsing every other release to date and sitting just behind Avengers: Endgame’s all-time mark. Its combination of franchise momentum, strong reviews, and record previews created unmatched early-year momentum that later titles have yet to approach. Avengers: Doomsday remains the primary swing factor with robust presales and December timing, yet faces holiday competition and lacks IMAX screens domestically, keeping its implied probability below Spider-Man’s. Toy Story 5’s earlier $160 million start and other 2026 entries trail significantly, while Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping post minimal odds due to lower tracking. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s proven numbers against Doomsday’s untested holiday potential, with the December event as the key remaining catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWelcher Film hat das zweitgrößte Eröffnungswochenende im Jahr 2026?
Welcher Film hat das zweitgrößte Eröffnungswochenende im Jahr 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$118,211 Vol.
$118,211 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
53%
Avengers: Doomsday
45%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$118,211 Vol.
$118,211 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$60,027 Vol.
53%
Avengers: Doomsday
$45,498 Vol.
45%
Dune: Messiah
$8,245 Vol.
<1%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering $360 million domestic opening in late July established it as the clear frontrunner for second-biggest 2026 debut, eclipsing every other release to date and sitting just behind Avengers: Endgame’s all-time mark. Its combination of franchise momentum, strong reviews, and record previews created unmatched early-year momentum that later titles have yet to approach. Avengers: Doomsday remains the primary swing factor with robust presales and December timing, yet faces holiday competition and lacks IMAX screens domestically, keeping its implied probability below Spider-Man’s. Toy Story 5’s earlier $160 million start and other 2026 entries trail significantly, while Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping post minimal odds due to lower tracking. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s proven numbers against Doomsday’s untested holiday potential, with the December event as the key remaining catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volumen
$118,211Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering $360 million domestic opening in late July established it as the clear frontrunner for second-biggest 2026 debut, eclipsing every other release to date and sitting just behind Avengers: Endgame’s all-time mark. Its combination of franchise momentum, strong reviews, and record previews created unmatched early-year momentum that later titles have yet to approach. Avengers: Doomsday remains the primary swing factor with robust presales and December timing, yet faces holiday competition and lacks IMAX screens domestically, keeping its implied probability below Spider-Man’s. Toy Story 5’s earlier $160 million start and other 2026 entries trail significantly, while Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping post minimal odds due to lower tracking. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s proven numbers against Doomsday’s untested holiday potential, with the December event as the key remaining catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$118,211Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering $360 million domestic opening in late July established it as the clear frontrunner for second-biggest 2026 debut, eclipsing every other release to date and sitting just behind Avengers: Endgame’s all-time mark. Its combination of franchise momentum, strong reviews, and record previews created unmatched early-year momentum that later titles have yet to approach. Avengers: Doomsday remains the primary swing factor with robust presales and December timing, yet faces holiday competition and lacks IMAX screens domestically, keeping its implied probability below Spider-Man’s. Toy Story 5’s earlier $160 million start and other 2026 entries trail significantly, while Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping post minimal odds due to lower tracking. Traders are pricing in Spider-Man’s proven numbers against Doomsday’s untested holiday potential, with the December event as the key remaining catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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