Elon Musk’s recent posting pace has solidified trader consensus around the 160-179 tweet range for August 11–18, 2026, as the dominant outcome. Data trackers show his August 2026 daily average hovering near 24 tweets, with weekday peaks around 40 and weekends dropping to the mid-teens, producing weekly totals clustered near 170. This aligns with the market’s 58.5% implied probability for 160-179 and the secondary 25.5% on 180-199, reflecting a moderation from earlier 2025 peaks near 100 daily tweets. The window’s inclusion of a low-activity weekend, coupled with no major Tesla, SpaceX, or regulatory catalysts to drive threads or replies, has anchored volumes in the moderate band. Sub-markets for shorter stretches confirm this pattern, with traders favoring lower buckets absent explosive news flow. The resolution on August 18 leaves limited room for a late surge, reinforcing the current skin-in-the-game assessment of steady but not elevated activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert160-179 59%
180-199 26%
140-159 11.8%
200-219 3.5%
$1,829,159 Vol.
$1,829,159 Vol.
140-159
12%
160-179
59%
180-199
26%
200-219
3%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 59%
180-199 26%
140-159 11.8%
200-219 3.5%
$1,829,159 Vol.
$1,829,159 Vol.
140-159
12%
160-179
59%
180-199
26%
200-219
3%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent posting pace has solidified trader consensus around the 160-179 tweet range for August 11–18, 2026, as the dominant outcome. Data trackers show his August 2026 daily average hovering near 24 tweets, with weekday peaks around 40 and weekends dropping to the mid-teens, producing weekly totals clustered near 170. This aligns with the market’s 58.5% implied probability for 160-179 and the secondary 25.5% on 180-199, reflecting a moderation from earlier 2025 peaks near 100 daily tweets. The window’s inclusion of a low-activity weekend, coupled with no major Tesla, SpaceX, or regulatory catalysts to drive threads or replies, has anchored volumes in the moderate band. Sub-markets for shorter stretches confirm this pattern, with traders favoring lower buckets absent explosive news flow. The resolution on August 18 leaves limited room for a late surge, reinforcing the current skin-in-the-game assessment of steady but not elevated activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen