Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range at a dominant 73.5% implied probability because it aligns closely with Elon Musk’s established baseline of roughly 15-21 posts per day on X during routine periods. Recent activity through August 4-5 shows steady engagement with SpaceX updates, Grok shares, and quick replies rather than any sustained viral spike or quiet stretch that would push totals outside this window. Historical trackers confirm this pace holds across weekdays without major news catalysts, while the low odds on 65-plus or sub-40 brackets reflect the limited chance of sudden escalation or sharp drop-off in such a short window. With the period wrapping up, market consensus treats the outcome as a straightforward extension of his documented high-volume but not extreme pattern.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertElon Musk # tweets 3. August - 5. August 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets 3. August - 5. August 2026?
40-64 72%
<40 23.3%
65-89 5%
90-114 <1%
$438,404 Vol.
$438,404 Vol.
5. Aug. 2026
<40
23%
40-64
72%
65-89
5%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 72%
<40 23.3%
65-89 5%
90-114 <1%
$438,404 Vol.
$438,404 Vol.
5. Aug. 2026
<40
$109,829 Vol.
23%
40-64
$56,035 Vol.
72%
65-89
$86,959 Vol.
5%
90-114
$69,009 Vol.
<1%
115-139
$60,165 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$25,628 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$14,290 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$6,746 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$5,970 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,773 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range at a dominant 73.5% implied probability because it aligns closely with Elon Musk’s established baseline of roughly 15-21 posts per day on X during routine periods. Recent activity through August 4-5 shows steady engagement with SpaceX updates, Grok shares, and quick replies rather than any sustained viral spike or quiet stretch that would push totals outside this window. Historical trackers confirm this pace holds across weekdays without major news catalysts, while the low odds on 65-plus or sub-40 brackets reflect the limited chance of sudden escalation or sharp drop-off in such a short window. With the period wrapping up, market consensus treats the outcome as a straightforward extension of his documented high-volume but not extreme pattern.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$438,404Enddatum
5. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range at a dominant 73.5% implied probability because it aligns closely with Elon Musk’s established baseline of roughly 15-21 posts per day on X during routine periods. Recent activity through August 4-5 shows steady engagement with SpaceX updates, Grok shares, and quick replies rather than any sustained viral spike or quiet stretch that would push totals outside this window. Historical trackers confirm this pace holds across weekdays without major news catalysts, while the low odds on 65-plus or sub-40 brackets reflect the limited chance of sudden escalation or sharp drop-off in such a short window. With the period wrapping up, market consensus treats the outcome as a straightforward extension of his documented high-volume but not extreme pattern.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$438,404Enddatum
5. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range at a dominant 73.5% implied probability because it aligns closely with Elon Musk’s established baseline of roughly 15-21 posts per day on X during routine periods. Recent activity through August 4-5 shows steady engagement with SpaceX updates, Grok shares, and quick replies rather than any sustained viral spike or quiet stretch that would push totals outside this window. Historical trackers confirm this pace holds across weekdays without major news catalysts, while the low odds on 65-plus or sub-40 brackets reflect the limited chance of sudden escalation or sharp drop-off in such a short window. With the period wrapping up, market consensus treats the outcome as a straightforward extension of his documented high-volume but not extreme pattern.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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