Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, aligning with Elon Musk’s typical daily output of 15-20 posts during active stretches on X. Market-implied odds reflect his established pattern of mixing company announcements, policy commentary, and replies without extreme spikes or lulls over short windows. Recent sustained engagement around xAI and Tesla developments has kept volume steady through early August, while the 23.5% chance for under 40 tweets accounts for possible quieter days. Higher brackets remain remote longshots given historical precedent and the brief three-day timeframe ending August 8.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert40-64 59%
<40 24%
65-89 19%
90-114 1.7%
$170,457 Vol.
$170,457 Vol.
8. Aug. 2026
<40
24%
40-64
59%
65-89
19%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 59%
<40 24%
65-89 19%
90-114 1.7%
$170,457 Vol.
$170,457 Vol.
8. Aug. 2026
<40
$28,267 Vol.
24%
40-64
$18,952 Vol.
59%
65-89
$16,916 Vol.
19%
90-114
$28,798 Vol.
2%
115-139
$35,735 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$16,016 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$9,806 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$9,804 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$3,081 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,240 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, aligning with Elon Musk’s typical daily output of 15-20 posts during active stretches on X. Market-implied odds reflect his established pattern of mixing company announcements, policy commentary, and replies without extreme spikes or lulls over short windows. Recent sustained engagement around xAI and Tesla developments has kept volume steady through early August, while the 23.5% chance for under 40 tweets accounts for possible quieter days. Higher brackets remain remote longshots given historical precedent and the brief three-day timeframe ending August 8.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$170,457Enddatum
8. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, aligning with Elon Musk’s typical daily output of 15-20 posts during active stretches on X. Market-implied odds reflect his established pattern of mixing company announcements, policy commentary, and replies without extreme spikes or lulls over short windows. Recent sustained engagement around xAI and Tesla developments has kept volume steady through early August, while the 23.5% chance for under 40 tweets accounts for possible quieter days. Higher brackets remain remote longshots given historical precedent and the brief three-day timeframe ending August 8.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$170,457Enddatum
8. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, aligning with Elon Musk’s typical daily output of 15-20 posts during active stretches on X. Market-implied odds reflect his established pattern of mixing company announcements, policy commentary, and replies without extreme spikes or lulls over short windows. Recent sustained engagement around xAI and Tesla developments has kept volume steady through early August, while the 23.5% chance for under 40 tweets accounts for possible quieter days. Higher brackets remain remote longshots given historical precedent and the brief three-day timeframe ending August 8.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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