Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X over the past week has anchored trader expectations for a final May 12–19 total in the 180–219 range, with 180–199 holding the clearest edge at 44.9 percent implied probability. Daily commentary on free-speech controversies, UK politics, and cultural double standards has kept his output consistently elevated, mirroring patterns seen during other high-engagement news cycles. The market reflects real-time tracking of his account activity rather than speculation, with traders weighing the remaining three days of the period against his typical weekend rhythm. A surge or slowdown tied to any breaking story could still nudge the count toward the 200–219 bracket, but the current trajectory favors the lower half of the frontrunning outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert180-199 43.6%
200-219 29.9%
220-239 11.7%
160-179 7.1%
$9,614,348 Vol.
$9,614,348 Vol.
140-159
<1%
160-179
7%
180-199
44%
200-219
30%
220-239
12%
240-259
3%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 43.6%
200-219 29.9%
220-239 11.7%
160-179 7.1%
$9,614,348 Vol.
$9,614,348 Vol.
140-159
<1%
160-179
7%
180-199
44%
200-219
30%
220-239
12%
240-259
3%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X over the past week has anchored trader expectations for a final May 12–19 total in the 180–219 range, with 180–199 holding the clearest edge at 44.9 percent implied probability. Daily commentary on free-speech controversies, UK politics, and cultural double standards has kept his output consistently elevated, mirroring patterns seen during other high-engagement news cycles. The market reflects real-time tracking of his account activity rather than speculation, with traders weighing the remaining three days of the period against his typical weekend rhythm. A surge or slowdown tied to any breaking story could still nudge the count toward the 200–219 bracket, but the current trajectory favors the lower half of the frontrunning outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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