Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert40-64 55%
65-89 45%
90-114 1.8%
115-139 1.5%
$975,065 Vol.
$975,065 Vol.
18. Mai 2026
<40
<1%
40-64
55%
65-89
45%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 55%
65-89 45%
90-114 1.8%
115-139 1.5%
$975,065 Vol.
$975,065 Vol.
18. Mai 2026
<40
$345,763 Vol.
<1%
40-64
$109,195 Vol.
55%
65-89
$102,943 Vol.
45%
90-114
$130,925 Vol.
2%
115-139
$108,292 Vol.
1%
140-164
$63,192 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$53,265 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$37,343 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$15,853 Vol.
<1%
240+
$19,735 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$975,065Enddatum
18. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$975,065Enddatum
18. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s consistent posting rhythm on X during the first half of May has anchored trader expectations around the 40-64 tweet range, currently commanding a 57.5% implied probability. Active threads on AI timelines, Tesla FSD v14.3.3 refinements, Starship V3 progress, and cultural commentary have sustained steady output without the spikes seen during major product launches or political flashpoints. With the three-day window closing on May 18, late-day replies and media shares could still nudge totals toward the upper end of that bracket or briefly test 65-89, though historical patterns show limited chance of extreme volume absent a breaking announcement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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