Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI prints, with core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and persistent energy-driven pressures, have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks reinforced credibility concerns and the need for action, prompting Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley to forecast a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Futures and interest-rate swaps now price an 87-94% implied probability of that move from the current 3.50-3.75% target range, marking the first increase since 2023. Polymarket contracts reflect similar consensus. Attention now turns to the post-meeting dot plot and any signals on December prospects amid sticky inflation readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$3,671,213 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
September-Treffen
87%
Oktobersitzung
92%
$3,671,213 Vol.
September-Treffen
$1,725,171 Vol.
87%
Oktobersitzung
$986,042 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI prints, with core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and persistent energy-driven pressures, have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks reinforced credibility concerns and the need for action, prompting Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley to forecast a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Futures and interest-rate swaps now price an 87-94% implied probability of that move from the current 3.50-3.75% target range, marking the first increase since 2023. Polymarket contracts reflect similar consensus. Attention now turns to the post-meeting dot plot and any signals on December prospects amid sticky inflation readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$3,671,213Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI prints, with core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and persistent energy-driven pressures, have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks reinforced credibility concerns and the need for action, prompting Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley to forecast a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Futures and interest-rate swaps now price an 87-94% implied probability of that move from the current 3.50-3.75% target range, marking the first increase since 2023. Polymarket contracts reflect similar consensus. Attention now turns to the post-meeting dot plot and any signals on December prospects amid sticky inflation readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,671,213Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI prints, with core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and persistent energy-driven pressures, have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks reinforced credibility concerns and the need for action, prompting Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley to forecast a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Futures and interest-rate swaps now price an 87-94% implied probability of that move from the current 3.50-3.75% target range, marking the first increase since 2023. Polymarket contracts reflect similar consensus. Attention now turns to the post-meeting dot plot and any signals on December prospects amid sticky inflation readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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