Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including March CPI rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, with the median dot plot still projecting one cut for 2026 amid core PCE forecasts of 2.7% this year. Resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.3% have tempered expectations for near-term easing, pushing CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike to around 45-60% by early 2027. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a policy dilemma as markets reprice the path of monetary policy. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming April-May CPI and PCE releases will provide key data points that could further influence the implied rate trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$148,571 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Junisitzung
1%
Julisitzung
8%
September-Treffen
16%
Oktobersitzung
26%
$148,571 Vol.
Junisitzung
$14,616 Vol.
1%
Julisitzung
$1,008 Vol.
8%
September-Treffen
$161 Vol.
16%
Oktobersitzung
$1,477 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including March CPI rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, with the median dot plot still projecting one cut for 2026 amid core PCE forecasts of 2.7% this year. Resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.3% have tempered expectations for near-term easing, pushing CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike to around 45-60% by early 2027. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a policy dilemma as markets reprice the path of monetary policy. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming April-May CPI and PCE releases will provide key data points that could further influence the implied rate trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$148,571Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including March CPI rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, with the median dot plot still projecting one cut for 2026 amid core PCE forecasts of 2.7% this year. Resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.3% have tempered expectations for near-term easing, pushing CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike to around 45-60% by early 2027. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a policy dilemma as markets reprice the path of monetary policy. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming April-May CPI and PCE releases will provide key data points that could further influence the implied rate trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$148,571Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including March CPI rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, with the median dot plot still projecting one cut for 2026 amid core PCE forecasts of 2.7% this year. Resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.3% have tempered expectations for near-term easing, pushing CME FedWatch probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike to around 45-60% by early 2027. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh faces a policy dilemma as markets reprice the path of monetary policy. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming April-May CPI and PCE releases will provide key data points that could further influence the implied rate trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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