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Wahlen·Französische Wahlen

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Wahlen·Französische Wahlen

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

$21,875 Vol.

23. Apr. 2027
Polymarket

$21,875 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$238 Vol.

73%

Jordan Bardella

$1,558 Vol.

76%

Michel Barnier

$162 Vol.

11%

Valérie Pécresse

$156 Vol.

11%

Élisabeth Borne

$278 Vol.

15%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$385 Vol.

13%

Jean Castex

$64 Vol.

29%

Gérald Darmanin

$171 Vol.

35%

Sébastien Lecornu

$172 Vol.

34%

François Bayrou

$486 Vol.

11%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$51 Vol.

32%

Carole Delga

$154 Vol.

18%

Olivier Faure

$229 Vol.

50%

François Hollande

$132 Vol.

51%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$523 Vol.

67%

Manuel Bompard

$397 Vol.

6%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$6,393 Vol.

99%

Mathilde Panot

$8,757 Vol.

5%

Dominique de Villepin

$25 Vol.

72%

Marine Le Pen

$147 Vol.

22%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Several major political figures have already confirmed their candidacies for France's April 2027 presidential election during spring 2026, including Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Bruno Retailleau, who secured Les Républicains' endorsement via an April party vote. Jordan Bardella of the National Rally remains the polling frontrunner. This record number of contenders stems from term limits barring Emmanuel Macron and fragmented party positioning ahead of the first-round vote. Additional declarations in May and early June, such as those by Bernard Cazeneuve and Karim Bouamrane, alongside withdrawals like Laurent Wauquiez, reflect ongoing coalition negotiations and signature-gathering requirements. Upcoming municipal and internal party dynamics through late 2026 could prompt further announcements before the campaign intensifies.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$21,875
Enddatum
23. Apr. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Several major political figures have already confirmed their candidacies for France's April 2027 presidential election during spring 2026, including Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Bruno Retailleau, who secured Les Républicains' endorsement via an April party vote. Jordan Bardella of the National Rally remains the polling frontrunner. This record number of contenders stems from term limits barring Emmanuel Macron and fragmented party positioning ahead of the first-round vote. Additional declarations in May and early June, such as those by Bernard Cazeneuve and Karim Bouamrane, alongside withdrawals like Laurent Wauquiez, reflect ongoing coalition negotiations and signature-gathering requirements. Upcoming municipal and internal party dynamics through late 2026 could prompt further announcements before the campaign intensifies.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$21,875
Enddatum
23. Apr. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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„French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Gabriel Attal" mit 100%, gefolgt von „Jean-Luc Mélenchon" mit 99%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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