Jordan Bardella holds a clear lead as the implied National Rally nominee for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal appeal over her 2025 conviction for EU funds misuse and resulting five-year public-office ban. The Paris Court of Appeal ruling, expected in July 2026, remains the pivotal near-term factor: an upheld sentence would bar Le Pen and position Bardella, the party’s current president and 2024 European election victor, as the uncontested standard-bearer. Recent polling shows Bardella consistently ahead in first-round voting intentions, while Le Pen’s formal candidacy pledge and joint outreach to business groups sustain residual trader support for her selection. The market’s modest probability on multiple candidates reflects the slim chance of an alternative RN figure emerging before the primary season.