Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, with the models posting leading scores of 59–65% across leaderboards that incorporate adaptive reasoning and tool use on the 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark. These iterative improvements in reasoning chains, context handling, and agentic workflows have widened Anthropic’s edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/6 variants and Meta’s Muse models, which trail in the low-to-mid 50s. Traders are pricing in continued progress through additional 2026 releases and efficiency optimizations before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation risks and potential safety-related restrictions on frontier capabilities remain swing factors for thresholds above 60%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$106,129 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
55 %+
81%
60 %+
43%
65 %+
19%
70 %+
14%
75%+
9%
$106,129 Vol.
55 %+
$26,759 Vol.
81%
60 %+
$45,258 Vol.
43%
65 %+
$28,311 Vol.
19%
70 %+
$4,458 Vol.
14%
75%+
$1,344 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, with the models posting leading scores of 59–65% across leaderboards that incorporate adaptive reasoning and tool use on the 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark. These iterative improvements in reasoning chains, context handling, and agentic workflows have widened Anthropic’s edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/6 variants and Meta’s Muse models, which trail in the low-to-mid 50s. Traders are pricing in continued progress through additional 2026 releases and efficiency optimizations before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation risks and potential safety-related restrictions on frontier capabilities remain swing factors for thresholds above 60%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volumen
$106,129Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://agi.safe.ai/Abwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, with the models posting leading scores of 59–65% across leaderboards that incorporate adaptive reasoning and tool use on the 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark. These iterative improvements in reasoning chains, context handling, and agentic workflows have widened Anthropic’s edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/6 variants and Meta’s Muse models, which trail in the low-to-mid 50s. Traders are pricing in continued progress through additional 2026 releases and efficiency optimizations before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation risks and potential safety-related restrictions on frontier capabilities remain swing factors for thresholds above 60%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$106,129Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://agi.safe.ai/Abwickler
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, with the models posting leading scores of 59–65% across leaderboards that incorporate adaptive reasoning and tool use on the 2,500-question PhD-level benchmark. These iterative improvements in reasoning chains, context handling, and agentic workflows have widened Anthropic’s edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.4/6 variants and Meta’s Muse models, which trail in the low-to-mid 50s. Traders are pricing in continued progress through additional 2026 releases and efficiency optimizations before year-end, while noting that benchmark saturation risks and potential safety-related restrictions on frontier capabilities remain swing factors for thresholds above 60%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird das höchste Ergebnis, das bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 erzielt wird, 60 % oder mehr betragen?
52%
Ja
Wird die höchste Punktzahl, die ein OpenAI-Modell bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 erreicht, 55 % oder höher sein?
77%
Ja
Wird die höchste von einem Meta-Modell erreichte Punktzahl bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 55 % oder mehr betragen?
36%
Ja
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