OpenAI’s current frontier models, including GPT-5.4 Pro and GPT-6 Astra variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-to-high 50s percent range as of September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders at 59–65 percent under comparable conditions. The expert-authored benchmark, with its 2,500 graduate-level questions across math, physics, biology, and humanities, remains far from saturated and rewards deep reasoning over retrieval. Traders are watching for OpenAI’s next major releases or reasoning upgrades before year-end, as incremental tool-use improvements and model scaling have driven recent gains across labs. Any breakthrough in multi-step inference or benchmark-specific fine-tuning could shift OpenAI’s position relative to competitors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$107,737 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
55 %+
78%
60 %+
32%
65 %+
16%
70 %+
10%
$107,737 Vol.
55 %+
$34,352 Vol.
78%
60 %+
$41,111 Vol.
32%
65 %+
$9,428 Vol.
16%
70 %+
$5,516 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s current frontier models, including GPT-5.4 Pro and GPT-6 Astra variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-to-high 50s percent range as of September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders at 59–65 percent under comparable conditions. The expert-authored benchmark, with its 2,500 graduate-level questions across math, physics, biology, and humanities, remains far from saturated and rewards deep reasoning over retrieval. Traders are watching for OpenAI’s next major releases or reasoning upgrades before year-end, as incremental tool-use improvements and model scaling have driven recent gains across labs. Any breakthrough in multi-step inference or benchmark-specific fine-tuning could shift OpenAI’s position relative to competitors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volumen
$107,737Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s current frontier models, including GPT-5.4 Pro and GPT-6 Astra variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-to-high 50s percent range as of September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders at 59–65 percent under comparable conditions. The expert-authored benchmark, with its 2,500 graduate-level questions across math, physics, biology, and humanities, remains far from saturated and rewards deep reasoning over retrieval. Traders are watching for OpenAI’s next major releases or reasoning upgrades before year-end, as incremental tool-use improvements and model scaling have driven recent gains across labs. Any breakthrough in multi-step inference or benchmark-specific fine-tuning could shift OpenAI’s position relative to competitors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$107,737Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s current frontier models, including GPT-5.4 Pro and GPT-6 Astra variants, have posted HLE scores in the mid-to-high 50s percent range as of September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 leaders at 59–65 percent under comparable conditions. The expert-authored benchmark, with its 2,500 graduate-level questions across math, physics, biology, and humanities, remains far from saturated and rewards deep reasoning over retrieval. Traders are watching for OpenAI’s next major releases or reasoning upgrades before year-end, as incremental tool-use improvements and model scaling have driven recent gains across labs. Any breakthrough in multi-step inference or benchmark-specific fine-tuning could shift OpenAI’s position relative to competitors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird das höchste Ergebnis, das bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 erzielt wird, 60 % oder mehr betragen?
44%
Ja
Wird die höchste von einem Meta-Modell erreichte Punktzahl bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 55 % oder mehr betragen?
25%
Ja
Wird die höchste von einem Anthropic Claude Modell erreichte Punktzahl bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 55 % oder höher sein?
86%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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