Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble models position 37–38°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 8 amid a post-cool-spell rebound, with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 38°C reflecting consensus on modest intensification under persistent high pressure. Madrid’s continental plateau location favors strong daytime heating through clear-sky insolation and downslope warming, while August climatology shows average highs near 34°C that routinely exceed 37°C during warm anomalies. Limited moisture and light winds further support efficient boundary-layer warming without significant convective capping. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 39°C outlier against the narrower spread around the seasonal baseline, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour observational window from Retiro or Barajas stations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 8. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 8. August?
38°C 56%
37°C 25%
39°C 20%
40°C <1%
NEU
$24,424 Vol.
NEU
$24,424 Vol.
8. Aug. 2026
34°C oder weniger
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
25%
38°C
56%
39°C
20%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C oder höher
<1%
38°C 56%
37°C 25%
39°C 20%
40°C <1%
NEU
$24,424 Vol.
NEU
$24,424 Vol.
8. Aug. 2026
34°C oder weniger
$658 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$2,045 Vol.
1%
37°C
$5,857 Vol.
25%
38°C
$4,889 Vol.
56%
39°C
$6,357 Vol.
20%
40°C
$2,092 Vol.
1%
41°C
$513 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$650 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$427 Vol.
<1%
44°C oder höher
$442 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble models position 37–38°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 8 amid a post-cool-spell rebound, with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 38°C reflecting consensus on modest intensification under persistent high pressure. Madrid’s continental plateau location favors strong daytime heating through clear-sky insolation and downslope warming, while August climatology shows average highs near 34°C that routinely exceed 37°C during warm anomalies. Limited moisture and light winds further support efficient boundary-layer warming without significant convective capping. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 39°C outlier against the narrower spread around the seasonal baseline, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour observational window from Retiro or Barajas stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$24,424Enddatum
8. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble models position 37–38°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 8 amid a post-cool-spell rebound, with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 38°C reflecting consensus on modest intensification under persistent high pressure. Madrid’s continental plateau location favors strong daytime heating through clear-sky insolation and downslope warming, while August climatology shows average highs near 34°C that routinely exceed 37°C during warm anomalies. Limited moisture and light winds further support efficient boundary-layer warming without significant convective capping. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 39°C outlier against the narrower spread around the seasonal baseline, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour observational window from Retiro or Barajas stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$24,424Enddatum
8. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble models position 37–38°C as the most probable peak for Madrid on August 8 amid a post-cool-spell rebound, with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 38°C reflecting consensus on modest intensification under persistent high pressure. Madrid’s continental plateau location favors strong daytime heating through clear-sky insolation and downslope warming, while August climatology shows average highs near 34°C that routinely exceed 37°C during warm anomalies. Limited moisture and light winds further support efficient boundary-layer warming without significant convective capping. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 39°C outlier against the narrower spread around the seasonal baseline, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour observational window from Retiro or Barajas stations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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