Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong August solar insolation, supports daytime maxima centered near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7 according to recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance. These conditions sustain the fourth heatwave of 2026, with warm-air advection from North Africa reinforcing above-normal warmth across central Spain. Model consensus and current observational trends position 38°C as the most probable outcome (46.5% implied probability), followed by 39°C (27.5%), while probabilities drop sharply below 36°C or above 40°C due to limited intensification potential before any frontal passage. Updated forecasts in the next 24–48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 7. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 7. August?
38°C 47%
39°C 28%
40°C 10%
37°C 10%
NEU
NEU
7. Aug. 2026
35°C or below
2%
36°C
4%
37°C
10%
38°C
47%
39°C
28%
40°C
10%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 47%
39°C 28%
40°C 10%
37°C 10%
NEU
NEU
7. Aug. 2026
35°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
36°C
$9 Vol.
4%
37°C
$21 Vol.
10%
38°C
$152 Vol.
47%
39°C
$35 Vol.
28%
40°C
$90 Vol.
10%
41°C
$73 Vol.
2%
42°C
$60 Vol.
1%
43°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong August solar insolation, supports daytime maxima centered near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7 according to recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance. These conditions sustain the fourth heatwave of 2026, with warm-air advection from North Africa reinforcing above-normal warmth across central Spain. Model consensus and current observational trends position 38°C as the most probable outcome (46.5% implied probability), followed by 39°C (27.5%), while probabilities drop sharply below 36°C or above 40°C due to limited intensification potential before any frontal passage. Updated forecasts in the next 24–48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$419Enddatum
7. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong August solar insolation, supports daytime maxima centered near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7 according to recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance. These conditions sustain the fourth heatwave of 2026, with warm-air advection from North Africa reinforcing above-normal warmth across central Spain. Model consensus and current observational trends position 38°C as the most probable outcome (46.5% implied probability), followed by 39°C (27.5%), while probabilities drop sharply below 36°C or above 40°C due to limited intensification potential before any frontal passage. Updated forecasts in the next 24–48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$419Enddatum
7. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies, light southerly flow, and strong August solar insolation, supports daytime maxima centered near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7 according to recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance. These conditions sustain the fourth heatwave of 2026, with warm-air advection from North Africa reinforcing above-normal warmth across central Spain. Model consensus and current observational trends position 38°C as the most probable outcome (46.5% implied probability), followed by 39°C (27.5%), while probabilities drop sharply below 36°C or above 40°C due to limited intensification potential before any frontal passage. Updated forecasts in the next 24–48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen