Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to moderating conditions around August 20, with Shanghai under the influence of a weakening subtropical high and increased moisture leading to cloud cover and scattered showers that cap daytime maxima near 30–31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this tight consensus, with traders weighting model runs showing highs of 30°C (34.5%) slightly ahead of 31°C (30.0%) due to urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns that could shift peaks by 1°C. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, yet current steering patterns and potential typhoon remnants introduce uncertainty, keeping 32°C or higher at lower implied probabilities until updated model guidance arrives.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 20. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 20. August?
30°C 35%
31°C 32%
32°C 12%
29°C 10%
NEU
NEU
20. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
10%
30°C
35%
31°C
32%
32°C
12%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 35%
31°C 32%
32°C 12%
29°C 10%
NEU
NEU
20. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$145 Vol.
1%
28°C
$77 Vol.
7%
29°C
$123 Vol.
10%
30°C
$292 Vol.
35%
31°C
$89 Vol.
32%
32°C
$24 Vol.
12%
33°C
$0 Vol.
5%
34°C
$18 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to moderating conditions around August 20, with Shanghai under the influence of a weakening subtropical high and increased moisture leading to cloud cover and scattered showers that cap daytime maxima near 30–31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this tight consensus, with traders weighting model runs showing highs of 30°C (34.5%) slightly ahead of 31°C (30.0%) due to urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns that could shift peaks by 1°C. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, yet current steering patterns and potential typhoon remnants introduce uncertainty, keeping 32°C or higher at lower implied probabilities until updated model guidance arrives.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$782Enddatum
20. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to moderating conditions around August 20, with Shanghai under the influence of a weakening subtropical high and increased moisture leading to cloud cover and scattered showers that cap daytime maxima near 30–31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this tight consensus, with traders weighting model runs showing highs of 30°C (34.5%) slightly ahead of 31°C (30.0%) due to urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns that could shift peaks by 1°C. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, yet current steering patterns and potential typhoon remnants introduce uncertainty, keeping 32°C or higher at lower implied probabilities until updated model guidance arrives.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$782Enddatum
20. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to moderating conditions around August 20, with Shanghai under the influence of a weakening subtropical high and increased moisture leading to cloud cover and scattered showers that cap daytime maxima near 30–31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this tight consensus, with traders weighting model runs showing highs of 30°C (34.5%) slightly ahead of 31°C (30.0%) due to urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns that could shift peaks by 1°C. Historical August baselines average 31–32°C, yet current steering patterns and potential typhoon remnants introduce uncertainty, keeping 32°C or higher at lower implied probabilities until updated model guidance arrives.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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