Singapore's tropical climate and ongoing El Niño conditions, which favor warmer and drier weather through the southwest monsoon, establish a baseline favoring daily maximum temperatures near 32–33°C. National Environment Agency outlooks issued in late July projected maxima of 33–34°C on most days in the first half of August due to reduced cloud cover, while short-range model guidance for August 20 indicates isolated thunderstorms and highs around 32°C. These factors, combined with typical August variability rarely exceeding 34°C or falling below 31°C, underpin the market's heavy weighting toward 32°C and 33°C as the most probable outcomes, with limited probability mass on extremes given the moderating influence of humidity and convective activity.