Recent forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate a high near 19–20°C for Warsaw on August 23, driven by a shift to cooler northwesterly flow, increased cloud cover, and light showers that limit daytime heating. Late-August climatology shows average highs declining from mid-summer peaks toward 22–23°C, with typical variability of several degrees tied to synoptic patterns. Updated guidance over the past 48 hours has reinforced this range, pushing trader consensus toward the 19°C and 20°C bins that together imply an 78% probability. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the Warsaw station, with any unexpected clear-sky warming or stronger cold advection as the main variables that could shift outcomes.