Recent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized near 4.69–4.70% amid resilient economic growth, core PCE inflation holding above 2.9%, and Federal Reserve communications signaling a potential policy hold or even modest rate hikes by year-end rather than aggressive easing. This environment has pushed the yield curve higher and flatter through 2026, limiting expectations for significant further declines. Trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns overwhelming probability to the yield staying above 4.0% before 2027, reflecting skepticism that inflation will moderate enough or growth slow sufficiently to drive yields lower. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment data, the next FOMC meeting, and any revisions to the Fed’s dot plot that could shift rate-path expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$225,300 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
3,9 %
12%
3,8 %
5%
3,7 %
2%
3,6 %
5%
3,5 %
2%
3,0 %
3%
2,0 %
2%
1,0 %
2%
$225,300 Vol.
3,9 %
$44,197 Vol.
12%
3,8 %
$41,312 Vol.
5%
3,7 %
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3,6 %
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3,5 %
$33,040 Vol.
2%
3,0 %
$917 Vol.
3%
2,0 %
$535 Vol.
2%
1,0 %
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized near 4.69–4.70% amid resilient economic growth, core PCE inflation holding above 2.9%, and Federal Reserve communications signaling a potential policy hold or even modest rate hikes by year-end rather than aggressive easing. This environment has pushed the yield curve higher and flatter through 2026, limiting expectations for significant further declines. Trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns overwhelming probability to the yield staying above 4.0% before 2027, reflecting skepticism that inflation will moderate enough or growth slow sufficiently to drive yields lower. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment data, the next FOMC meeting, and any revisions to the Fed’s dot plot that could shift rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volumen
$225,300Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized near 4.69–4.70% amid resilient economic growth, core PCE inflation holding above 2.9%, and Federal Reserve communications signaling a potential policy hold or even modest rate hikes by year-end rather than aggressive easing. This environment has pushed the yield curve higher and flatter through 2026, limiting expectations for significant further declines. Trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns overwhelming probability to the yield staying above 4.0% before 2027, reflecting skepticism that inflation will moderate enough or growth slow sufficiently to drive yields lower. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment data, the next FOMC meeting, and any revisions to the Fed’s dot plot that could shift rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$225,300Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized near 4.69–4.70% amid resilient economic growth, core PCE inflation holding above 2.9%, and Federal Reserve communications signaling a potential policy hold or even modest rate hikes by year-end rather than aggressive easing. This environment has pushed the yield curve higher and flatter through 2026, limiting expectations for significant further declines. Trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns overwhelming probability to the yield staying above 4.0% before 2027, reflecting skepticism that inflation will moderate enough or growth slow sufficiently to drive yields lower. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment data, the next FOMC meeting, and any revisions to the Fed’s dot plot that could shift rate-path expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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