The substantial 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has created significant borrowing headroom, with analysts projecting the limit will next be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Congress has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to enact raises or suspensions ahead of any breach, drawing on extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service to maintain obligations. This track record, alongside the U.S. government's unmatched access to capital markets and institutional safeguards, underpins the market's strong consensus against default. Potential disruptions remain limited to extended partisan standoffs over appropriations or reconciliation that delay action into late 2027, though even those episodes have historically resolved without triggering missed payments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
US-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
Ja
3% Chance
$16,303 Vol.
$16,303 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
3% Chance
$16,303 Vol.
$16,303 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has created significant borrowing headroom, with analysts projecting the limit will next be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Congress has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to enact raises or suspensions ahead of any breach, drawing on extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service to maintain obligations. This track record, alongside the U.S. government's unmatched access to capital markets and institutional safeguards, underpins the market's strong consensus against default. Potential disruptions remain limited to extended partisan standoffs over appropriations or reconciliation that delay action into late 2027, though even those episodes have historically resolved without triggering missed payments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$16,303Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has created significant borrowing headroom, with analysts projecting the limit will next be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Congress has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to enact raises or suspensions ahead of any breach, drawing on extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service to maintain obligations. This track record, alongside the U.S. government's unmatched access to capital markets and institutional safeguards, underpins the market's strong consensus against default. Potential disruptions remain limited to extended partisan standoffs over appropriations or reconciliation that delay action into late 2027, though even those episodes have historically resolved without triggering missed payments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$16,303Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The substantial 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has created significant borrowing headroom, with analysts projecting the limit will next be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Congress has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to enact raises or suspensions ahead of any breach, drawing on extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service to maintain obligations. This track record, alongside the U.S. government's unmatched access to capital markets and institutional safeguards, underpins the market's strong consensus against default. Potential disruptions remain limited to extended partisan standoffs over appropriations or reconciliation that delay action into late 2027, though even those episodes have historically resolved without triggering missed payments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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