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icon for Schweden Parlamentswahl: KD Über/Unter 6%?
Politik·Globale Wahlen

Schweden Parlamentswahl: KD Über/Unter 6%?

icon for Schweden Parlamentswahl: KD Über/Unter 6%?
Politik·Globale Wahlen

Schweden Parlamentswahl: KD Über/Unter 6%?

Over

64% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Over

64% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna (KD) between 6.1% and 7.5% in July and August readings from Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop, showing modest gains of roughly one point over prior months. As the smallest partner in the Tidö governing alliance alongside Moderaterna, Sverigedemokraterna, and Liberalerna, the party has drawn incremental consolidation within the centre-right bloc even while the overall right-leaning side trails the red-green opposition. This polling range near the 6% mark, combined with KD’s historical record of clearing electoral thresholds in coalition settings, underpins the 64% market-implied probability for an “over” outcome ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Volatility among undecided voters and bloc dynamics remain the main variables that could still alter the final result.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volumen
$229
Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna (KD) between 6.1% and 7.5% in July and August readings from Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop, showing modest gains of roughly one point over prior months. As the smallest partner in the Tidö governing alliance alongside Moderaterna, Sverigedemokraterna, and Liberalerna, the party has drawn incremental consolidation within the centre-right bloc even while the overall right-leaning side trails the red-green opposition. This polling range near the 6% mark, combined with KD’s historical record of clearing electoral thresholds in coalition settings, underpins the 64% market-implied probability for an “over” outcome ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Volatility among undecided voters and bloc dynamics remain the main variables that could still alter the final result.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volumen
$229
Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Verwandte

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icon for Werden die Christdemokraten (KD) zwischen 5 % und 7 % aller gültigen Stimmen gewinnen?

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45%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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