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icon for Parlamentswahl in Schweden: C Über/Unter 6%?
Politik·Schweden

Parlamentswahl in Schweden: C Über/Unter 6%?

icon for Parlamentswahl in Schweden: C Über/Unter 6%?
Politik·Schweden

Parlamentswahl in Schweden: C Über/Unter 6%?

Over

75% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Over

75% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls from firms including Demoskop, Novus, and SCB place Centre Party (Centerpartiet) support at 6.1–7.3% in the run-up to the 13 September 2026 Riksdag election, with most surveys from mid-2026 showing readings above the 6% mark. This positioning follows a period of stabilization after earlier 2025 dips and the October 2025 leadership transition to Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist. Traders appear to view these consistent polling levels—near or above the party’s 2022 result of 6.7%—as the dominant driver of the 75% implied probability for an outcome exceeding 6%, especially given the short remaining campaign window and absence of major downward shifts in the latest data.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volumen
$590
Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls from firms including Demoskop, Novus, and SCB place Centre Party (Centerpartiet) support at 6.1–7.3% in the run-up to the 13 September 2026 Riksdag election, with most surveys from mid-2026 showing readings above the 6% mark. This positioning follows a period of stabilization after earlier 2025 dips and the October 2025 leadership transition to Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist. Traders appear to view these consistent polling levels—near or above the party’s 2022 result of 6.7%—as the dominant driver of the 75% implied probability for an outcome exceeding 6%, especially given the short remaining campaign window and absence of major downward shifts in the latest data.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volumen
$590
Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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