**Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026, with daily commercial traffic often in the low single digits or near zero versus the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100–160 vessels per day.** Recent marine tracking shows mostly sporadic or “dark” passages, many involving U.S. military coordination, amid Iran’s control measures, vetting requirements, and reported risks that have idled large numbers of tankers and bulk carriers. A potential U.S.-Iran agreement, with signing reportedly scheduled for June 15 and immediate reopening signaled by officials and negotiators, has introduced the main near-term variable for the week ahead. Shipping executives have noted that credible security assurances could allow a rapid increase in movements, while persistent uncertainty or enforcement frictions could sustain low volumes. The tight clustering around the 25–49 and 75–99 brackets reflects trader assessments of whether the diplomatic timeline produces a swift rebound within the resolution window or whether caution and procedural hurdles keep weekly totals subdued. Verified traffic data in the days after June 15, along with any confirmed deal implementation, would likely drive clearer separation among the outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
25-49 42%
100+ 41%
75-99 40%
50-74 38%
NEU
NEU
21. Juni 2026
<25
34%
25-49
42%
50-74
38%
75-99
40%
100+
41%
25-49 42%
100+ 41%
75-99 40%
50-74 38%
NEU
NEU
21. Juni 2026
<25
$0 Vol.
34%
25-49
$0 Vol.
42%
50-74
$3 Vol.
38%
75-99
$0 Vol.
40%
100+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026, with daily commercial traffic often in the low single digits or near zero versus the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100–160 vessels per day.** Recent marine tracking shows mostly sporadic or “dark” passages, many involving U.S. military coordination, amid Iran’s control measures, vetting requirements, and reported risks that have idled large numbers of tankers and bulk carriers.
A potential U.S.-Iran agreement, with signing reportedly scheduled for June 15 and immediate reopening signaled by officials and negotiators, has introduced the main near-term variable for the week ahead. Shipping executives have noted that credible security assurances could allow a rapid increase in movements, while persistent uncertainty or enforcement frictions could sustain low volumes. The tight clustering around the 25–49 and 75–99 brackets reflects trader assessments of whether the diplomatic timeline produces a swift rebound within the resolution window or whether caution and procedural hurdles keep weekly totals subdued. Verified traffic data in the days after June 15, along with any confirmed deal implementation, would likely drive clearer separation among the outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$3Enddatum
21. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026, with daily commercial traffic often in the low single digits or near zero versus the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100–160 vessels per day.** Recent marine tracking shows mostly sporadic or “dark” passages, many involving U.S. military coordination, amid Iran’s control measures, vetting requirements, and reported risks that have idled large numbers of tankers and bulk carriers.
A potential U.S.-Iran agreement, with signing reportedly scheduled for June 15 and immediate reopening signaled by officials and negotiators, has introduced the main near-term variable for the week ahead. Shipping executives have noted that credible security assurances could allow a rapid increase in movements, while persistent uncertainty or enforcement frictions could sustain low volumes. The tight clustering around the 25–49 and 75–99 brackets reflects trader assessments of whether the diplomatic timeline produces a swift rebound within the resolution window or whether caution and procedural hurdles keep weekly totals subdued. Verified traffic data in the days after June 15, along with any confirmed deal implementation, would likely drive clearer separation among the outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$3Enddatum
21. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026, with daily commercial traffic often in the low single digits or near zero versus the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100–160 vessels per day.** Recent marine tracking shows mostly sporadic or “dark” passages, many involving U.S. military coordination, amid Iran’s control measures, vetting requirements, and reported risks that have idled large numbers of tankers and bulk carriers. A potential U.S.-Iran agreement, with signing reportedly scheduled for June 15 and immediate reopening signaled by officials and negotiators, has introduced the main near-term variable for the week ahead. Shipping executives have noted that credible security assurances could allow a rapid increase in movements, while persistent uncertainty or enforcement frictions could sustain low volumes. The tight clustering around the 25–49 and 75–99 brackets reflects trader assessments of whether the diplomatic timeline produces a swift rebound within the resolution window or whether caution and procedural hurdles keep weekly totals subdued. Verified traffic data in the days after June 15, along with any confirmed deal implementation, would likely drive clearer separation among the outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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