**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic in late February 2026, continue to suppress weekly transits well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 700–900 vessels.** Heightened risks of attacks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums exceeding 16 times normal rates, and suspensions by major carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM have kept daily movements near zero for extended periods, with only modest upticks from U.S. naval coordination of select routes in late May. As of early June, marine traffic data show persistent low throughput, with Iranian coordination or U.S.-protected lanes permitting limited passages but no sustained normalization. This environment drives strong trader consensus around the 25-49 bracket at 79.0% implied probability, reflecting the market’s pricing of constrained volumes for the June 8 week amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Key upcoming data releases on weekly ship counts through June 14 will clarify whether incremental U.S. assistance produces any meaningful lift.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
25-49 79%
50-74 8.1%
<25 8%
75-99 2.7%
NEU
NEU
14. Juni 2026
<25
8%
25-49
79%
50-74
8%
75-99
3%
100+
3%
25-49 79%
50-74 8.1%
<25 8%
75-99 2.7%
NEU
NEU
14. Juni 2026
<25
$2,477 Vol.
8%
25-49
$1,647 Vol.
79%
50-74
$587 Vol.
8%
75-99
$475 Vol.
3%
100+
$895 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic in late February 2026, continue to suppress weekly transits well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 700–900 vessels.** Heightened risks of attacks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums exceeding 16 times normal rates, and suspensions by major carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM have kept daily movements near zero for extended periods, with only modest upticks from U.S. naval coordination of select routes in late May. As of early June, marine traffic data show persistent low throughput, with Iranian coordination or U.S.-protected lanes permitting limited passages but no sustained normalization. This environment drives strong trader consensus around the 25-49 bracket at 79.0% implied probability, reflecting the market’s pricing of constrained volumes for the June 8 week amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Key upcoming data releases on weekly ship counts through June 14 will clarify whether incremental U.S. assistance produces any meaningful lift.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volumen
$6,081Enddatum
14. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic in late February 2026, continue to suppress weekly transits well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 700–900 vessels.** Heightened risks of attacks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums exceeding 16 times normal rates, and suspensions by major carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM have kept daily movements near zero for extended periods, with only modest upticks from U.S. naval coordination of select routes in late May. As of early June, marine traffic data show persistent low throughput, with Iranian coordination or U.S.-protected lanes permitting limited passages but no sustained normalization. This environment drives strong trader consensus around the 25-49 bracket at 79.0% implied probability, reflecting the market’s pricing of constrained volumes for the June 8 week amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Key upcoming data releases on weekly ship counts through June 14 will clarify whether incremental U.S. assistance produces any meaningful lift.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$6,081Enddatum
14. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic in late February 2026, continue to suppress weekly transits well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 700–900 vessels.** Heightened risks of attacks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums exceeding 16 times normal rates, and suspensions by major carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM have kept daily movements near zero for extended periods, with only modest upticks from U.S. naval coordination of select routes in late May. As of early June, marine traffic data show persistent low throughput, with Iranian coordination or U.S.-protected lanes permitting limited passages but no sustained normalization. This environment drives strong trader consensus around the 25-49 bracket at 79.0% implied probability, reflecting the market’s pricing of constrained volumes for the June 8 week amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Key upcoming data releases on weekly ship counts through June 14 will clarify whether incremental U.S. assistance produces any meaningful lift.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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