Traders currently see the tightest clustering around 27–30°C for Hong Kong’s August 9 minimum because short-range model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles shows only modest day-to-day variability in the subtropical summer regime. Typical August nocturnal radiative cooling under light southerly flow and high humidity produces lows near 27–28°C, yet scattered cloud cover or a transient monsoon surge can suppress cooling by 1–2°C while clearer skies or stronger winds enhance it. With the market-implied odds nearly even across the central outcomes, participants are pricing residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention rather than any single large-scale driver. Updated HKO forecasts and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen these probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Hongkong am 9. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Hongkong am 9. August?
28°C 35%
29°C 24%
27°C 19%
30°C 17%
NEU
NEU
9. Aug. 2026
24°C oder darunter
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
10%
27°C
19%
28°C
35%
29°C
24%
30°C
17%
31°C
8%
32°C
7%
33°C
<1%
34°C oder höher
1%
28°C 35%
29°C 24%
27°C 19%
30°C 17%
NEU
NEU
9. Aug. 2026
24°C oder darunter
$12 Vol.
1%
25°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
10%
27°C
$0 Vol.
19%
28°C
$0 Vol.
35%
29°C
$37 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
17%
31°C
$0 Vol.
8%
32°C
$277 Vol.
7%
33°C
$159 Vol.
<1%
34°C oder höher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders currently see the tightest clustering around 27–30°C for Hong Kong’s August 9 minimum because short-range model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles shows only modest day-to-day variability in the subtropical summer regime. Typical August nocturnal radiative cooling under light southerly flow and high humidity produces lows near 27–28°C, yet scattered cloud cover or a transient monsoon surge can suppress cooling by 1–2°C while clearer skies or stronger winds enhance it. With the market-implied odds nearly even across the central outcomes, participants are pricing residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention rather than any single large-scale driver. Updated HKO forecasts and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$517Enddatum
9. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders currently see the tightest clustering around 27–30°C for Hong Kong’s August 9 minimum because short-range model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles shows only modest day-to-day variability in the subtropical summer regime. Typical August nocturnal radiative cooling under light southerly flow and high humidity produces lows near 27–28°C, yet scattered cloud cover or a transient monsoon surge can suppress cooling by 1–2°C while clearer skies or stronger winds enhance it. With the market-implied odds nearly even across the central outcomes, participants are pricing residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention rather than any single large-scale driver. Updated HKO forecasts and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$517Enddatum
9. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders currently see the tightest clustering around 27–30°C for Hong Kong’s August 9 minimum because short-range model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles shows only modest day-to-day variability in the subtropical summer regime. Typical August nocturnal radiative cooling under light southerly flow and high humidity produces lows near 27–28°C, yet scattered cloud cover or a transient monsoon surge can suppress cooling by 1–2°C while clearer skies or stronger winds enhance it. With the market-implied odds nearly even across the central outcomes, participants are pricing residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention rather than any single large-scale driver. Updated HKO forecasts and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen these probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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