**NWS point forecasts and ensemble guidance place San Francisco’s overnight low for October 12 near 52–54 °F under mostly clear skies and light southeast-to-east winds, supporting modest radiational cooling while the marine layer limits further drops.** An upper-level trough moving through the region has produced a cool-down several degrees below seasonal normals, yet high pressure building offshore is expected to keep conditions dry and stable through the night. Historical October 12 lows average 54–55 °F, with records rarely dipping below 48 °F, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 50–61 °F bins and near-zero probability assigned to sub-44 °F outcomes. The next model runs and evening NWS updates will refine the precise minimum before final observations resolve the market.