Google's February 2026 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro as its current flagship model, which delivered major gains in complex reasoning benchmarks such as GPQA and ARC-AGI-2, continues to anchor trader expectations for the next dedicated reasoning update. Recent Android-focused announcements at the May 2026 I/O event highlighted expanded Gemini Intelligence features like agentic task automation and deeper ecosystem integration, yet stopped short of unveiling a full successor model. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5-class releases and Anthropic's Claude iterations, combined with Google's history of mid-year model refreshes, supports the strong market consensus that a new reasoning flagship will arrive by late June. Key near-term catalysts include any post-I/O developer updates or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$96,455 Vol.
22. Mai 2026
15. Mai
<1%
22. Mai
74%
May 31
77%
June 30
93%
$96,455 Vol.
15. Mai
$14,586 Vol.
<1%
22. Mai
$31,118 Vol.
74%
May 31
$43,299 Vol.
77%
June 30
$3,530 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's February 2026 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro as its current flagship model, which delivered major gains in complex reasoning benchmarks such as GPQA and ARC-AGI-2, continues to anchor trader expectations for the next dedicated reasoning update. Recent Android-focused announcements at the May 2026 I/O event highlighted expanded Gemini Intelligence features like agentic task automation and deeper ecosystem integration, yet stopped short of unveiling a full successor model. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5-class releases and Anthropic's Claude iterations, combined with Google's history of mid-year model refreshes, supports the strong market consensus that a new reasoning flagship will arrive by late June. Key near-term catalysts include any post-I/O developer updates or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 30, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$96,455Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's February 2026 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro as its current flagship model, which delivered major gains in complex reasoning benchmarks such as GPQA and ARC-AGI-2, continues to anchor trader expectations for the next dedicated reasoning update. Recent Android-focused announcements at the May 2026 I/O event highlighted expanded Gemini Intelligence features like agentic task automation and deeper ecosystem integration, yet stopped short of unveiling a full successor model. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5-class releases and Anthropic's Claude iterations, combined with Google's history of mid-year model refreshes, supports the strong market consensus that a new reasoning flagship will arrive by late June. Key near-term catalysts include any post-I/O developer updates or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).
Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$96,455Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google's February 2026 launch of Gemini 3.1 Pro as its current flagship model, which delivered major gains in complex reasoning benchmarks such as GPQA and ARC-AGI-2, continues to anchor trader expectations for the next dedicated reasoning update. Recent Android-focused announcements at the May 2026 I/O event highlighted expanded Gemini Intelligence features like agentic task automation and deeper ecosystem integration, yet stopped short of unveiling a full successor model. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5-class releases and Anthropic's Claude iterations, combined with Google's history of mid-year model refreshes, supports the strong market consensus that a new reasoning flagship will arrive by late June. Key near-term catalysts include any post-I/O developer updates or benchmark leaks that could accelerate the timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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