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Technik·Zwillinge

Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?

icon for Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?
Technik·Zwillinge

Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?

$172,669 Vol.

Polymarket

$172,669 Vol.

Polymarket

1490+

$36,431 Vol.

1%

1480+

$87,930 Vol.

1%

1500+

$14,087 Vol.

1%

1510+

$4,046 Vol.

<1%

1520+

$6,983 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".Google's pattern of stealth-testing next-generation Gemini models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—where blind user votes generate Elo rankings—has traders closely watching for the debut of the successor to Gemini 3, likely Gemini 3.2 Flash or 3.5. An unannounced model matching this profile surfaced on the Arena around May 2, topping preliminary benchmarks amid leaks of enhanced multimodal reasoning and efficiency, boosting competitive positioning against OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus. Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian signaled a release "very soon" in late April, with the Android Show (May 12) teasing deeper OS integration but no formal announcement. Google I/O on May 19 remains the key catalyst, though product timelines can shift due to safety evaluations or surprises.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$172,669
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".Google's pattern of stealth-testing next-generation Gemini models on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—where blind user votes generate Elo rankings—has traders closely watching for the debut of the successor to Gemini 3, likely Gemini 3.2 Flash or 3.5. An unannounced model matching this profile surfaced on the Arena around May 2, topping preliminary benchmarks amid leaks of enhanced multimodal reasoning and efficiency, boosting competitive positioning against OpenAI's GPT-5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus. Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian signaled a release "very soon" in late April, with the Android Show (May 12) teasing deeper OS integration but no formal announcement. Google I/O on May 19 remains the key catalyst, though product timelines can shift due to safety evaluations or surprises.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$172,669
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 3:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „1490+" mit 1%, gefolgt von „1480+" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 1¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $172.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 30, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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