Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 63%
OpenAI 21%
Google 15%
xAI <1%
$114,342 Vol.
$114,342 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
17%
15%
xAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 21%
Google 15%
xAI <1%
$114,342 Vol.
$114,342 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Anthropic
$18,193 Vol.
63%
OpenAI
$18,632 Vol.
17%
$11,032 Vol.
15%
xAI
$8,724 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$6,720 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$6,536 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$6,392 Vol.
1%
Meta
$6,348 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$6,786 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$7,026 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$7,869 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,116 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,546 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$114,342Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$114,342Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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