Russia and Ukraine enter this extended "series" with sharply mismatched recent form, as stalled trilateral talks through mid-2026 show persistent defensive stands on territory and security guarantees without meaningful concessions. Key lineup issues, including Russia's refusal to accept unconditional ceasefires and Ukraine's insistence on sovereignty protections akin to a strong home record, have created a rugged matchup where breakthroughs remain rare. Brief "exhibition" pauses like the April Easter ceasefire highlight temporary resets rather than sustained momentum shifts, while external schedule congestion from Middle East developments has limited preparation time for deals. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing underscores the underdog status of any swift resolution, given historical patterns of prolonged stalemates and no clear path to all required conditions by year-end.