Ukrainian officials floated plans in February 2026 for a presidential election paired with a referendum on any peace agreement, potentially as early as May, under U.S. pressure for rapid de-escalation. Those timelines collapsed after a brief U.S.-brokered ceasefire from May 9-11 fell apart amid mutual violation claims and renewed artillery exchanges along the front. Russia continues to demand territorial concessions, including full control of remaining Donbas areas, while Ukraine rejects those terms and maintains that any deal requires parliamentary or popular approval only after security guarantees are secured. No referendum date has been set, civil-society opposition remains vocal, and active hostilities persist without fresh diplomatic breakthroughs. Trader pricing therefore reflects the low likelihood that a formal vote occurs and passes before the end of 2026.