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Economy·Globale Preise

South African Reserve Bank decision in July?

icon for South African Reserve Bank decision in July?
Economy·Globale Preise

South African Reserve Bank decision in July?

25 bps hike 65%

No Change 31%

50+ bps hike 22%

50+ bps cut 18%

Polymarket
NEU

25 bps hike 65%

No Change 31%

50+ bps hike 22%

50+ bps cut 18%

Polymarket
NEU

50+ bps cut

$43 Vol.

18%

25 bps cut

$171 Vol.

5%

No Change

$666 Vol.

31%

25 bps hike

$558 Vol.

65%

50+ bps hike

$53 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The South African Reserve Bank’s May 2026 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 7%—its first hike since 2023—following April CPI surging to 4.0% from 3.1% in March, driven primarily by fuel prices amid Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for another 25 basis point increase at the July 23 meeting. The central bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 4.4% and flagged upside risks plus potential second-round effects, supporting the 66% implied probability on a modest hike while also leaving room for a larger 50+ basis point move at 42.5%. Weak GDP growth forecasts around 1.2%, elevated unemployment near 32.7%, and recent rand strength provide some offset, tempering odds of cuts or a hold ahead of the June 17 CPI release.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).

This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,491
Enddatum
23. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The South African Reserve Bank’s May 2026 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 7%—its first hike since 2023—following April CPI surging to 4.0% from 3.1% in March, driven primarily by fuel prices amid Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for another 25 basis point increase at the July 23 meeting. The central bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 4.4% and flagged upside risks plus potential second-round effects, supporting the 66% implied probability on a modest hike while also leaving room for a larger 50+ basis point move at 42.5%. Weak GDP growth forecasts around 1.2%, elevated unemployment near 32.7%, and recent rand strength provide some offset, tempering odds of cuts or a hold ahead of the June 17 CPI release.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).

This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,491
Enddatum
23. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„South African Reserve Bank decision in July?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „25 bps hike" mit 65%, gefolgt von „No Change" mit 31%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 65¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„South African Reserve Bank decision in July?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am May 28, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „South African Reserve Bank decision in July?" ist „25 bps hike" mit 65%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „No Change" mit 31%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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