The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, approved in a 3-2 vote and accompanied by explicit guidance that the easing cycle has concluded, anchors the 90.9 percent implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. April 2026 headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent year-over-year while core measures fell to 4.26 percent, remaining above the 3 percent target yet showing sufficient moderation alongside Q1 economic contraction to justify a pause. Traders price in this holding stance given elevated geopolitical uncertainties and the central bank’s forward-looking assessment that the current restrictive level remains appropriate. A hotter-than-expected May or June inflation print or an abrupt rebound in activity could still reopen the door to further easing, though such shifts would require material deviation from the latest data trajectory.