President Trump imposed a US naval blockade on Iranian ships and ports in the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, after US-Iran peace talks collapsed amid escalating tensions over Tehran's nuclear program and regional actions. The blockade persists despite incidents like Iranian seizures of vessels on April 22 and US firing on tankers, with Trump announcing a temporary pause in clearance operations on May 5 to prioritize diplomacy. On May 13, Trump arrived in Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping, leveraging China's role as Iran's top oil buyer to pressure for de-escalation and safe passage restoration. Traders eye the talks' outcome and oil market strains from disrupted 25% of global supply, alongside potential naval tests like a Chinese supertanker's recent Gulf transit, as catalysts for an official lift announcement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo new official lift‑announcement;
May 22 dips to 9%3%
analysts note that Trump’s earlier “Project Freedom” guidance applies only to non‑Iranian traffic, confirming that the blockade stays in place through the deadline
No official US government or President Trump announcement is made to lift the blockade by May 15, solidifying market consensus that the blockade will continue beyond the
No official US government or President Trump announcement is made to lift the blockade by May 15, solidifying market consensus that the blockade will continue beyond the resolution date
U.S. Central Command denies Iran’s claim of striking a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 53%11%
warship, reducing immediate escalation risk and giving a modest uptick in lift expectations (derived from market bounce on reduced tension; source 1 notes the denial on May 6, which continued to influence sentiment through early May).
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, confirming no
May 15 dips to 2%1%
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, confirming no imminent US lifting and pushing market
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the Strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, escalating
May 31 plunges to 23%18%
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the Strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, escalating tensions and pushing market lower
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure but no official US lifting announcement,
May 15 dips to 3%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure but no official US lifting announcement, maintaining low market confidence in blockade removal by May 15
US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the Strait but states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reducing market
May 31 drops to 40%10%
US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the Strait but states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reducing market optimism sharply
The US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the strait but explicitly states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached,
May 15 drops to 5%14%
The US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the strait but explicitly states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade and causing a sharp
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift
May 8 plunges to 1%29%
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift before May 8
Reports confirm Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Iran meets US nuclear demands,
May 31 surges to 50%25%
Reports confirm Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Iran meets US nuclear demands, causing a temporary market rebound
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
May 8 dips to 3%2%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lift announcement soon
No new official announcement of a blockade lift appears;
the continued absence of a qualifying statement keeps the “Yes”
White House spokesperson reiterates that the U.S.
June 30 drops to 59%12%
naval blockade remains “fully in effect” until a deal is reached, dampening lift‑expectations and pulling the
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully
June 30 surges to 71%15%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and ready for business,” sparking optimism that the U.S. blockade could be lifted
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of regional escalation, adding diplomatic pressure but no US lift announcement, contributing to market
May 31 plunges to 25%16%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of regional escalation, adding diplomatic pressure but no US lift announcement, contributing to market decline
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full
May 8 dips to 4%2%
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full effect
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced and that the operation is set to continue
Trump launches “Project Freedom,” directing the U.S.
June 30 surges to 71%23%
Navy to guide stranded neutral commercial ships through Hormuz while keeping the blockade on Iranian ports
Trump launches “Project Freedom” to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while explicitly maintaining the blockade until a comprehensive deal, reinforcing
May 31 dips to 41%4%
Trump launches “Project Freedom” to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while explicitly maintaining the blockade until a comprehensive deal, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade and market drop
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not
May 22 drops to 16%10%
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not being lifted
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a
May 8 dips to 5%3%
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a lift before May 8 is unlikely
President Trump orders the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing operations, signaling escalation and no intention
May 15 drops to 8%6%
President Trump orders the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing operations, signaling escalation and no intention to lift the blockade soon, further depressing market optimism
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S.
May 22 dips to 26%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S. lift announcement
Trump announces “Project Freedom,” a U.S.
May 8 drops to 12%10%
operation to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, but makes clear the blockade itself is unchanged
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to
May 22 dips to 26%4%
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to non‑Iranian ports are still allowed
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed until the U.S.
May 22 plunges to 30%30%
blockade is lifted, warning vessels that any approach will be treated as hostile
Reports confirm sanctioned tankers continue to pass through the Strait despite the blockade, exposing enforcement gaps but no official lifting announcement.
April 30 dips to 3%3%
Traders interpret this as erosion of blockade effectiveness but not a formal end, pushing
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear
May 8 plunges to 10%42%
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear demands, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after peace talks collapse and Iran rejects partial reopening offers, confirming low near-term prospects for
May 31 drops to 45%11%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after peace talks collapse and Iran rejects partial reopening offers, confirming low near-term prospects for lifting, leading to further
President Trump tells aides to prepare for a prolonged U.S.
May 15 jumps to 39%5%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, signalling no near‑term lift
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, underscoring a strategy of sustained pressure on Iran amid stalled diplomacy and no lifting announcement.
April 30 drops to 6%7%
This official preparation for prolonging the blockade further reduced market confidence in lifting by April 30
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling
May 15 drops to 14%6%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade and causing a sharp drop in market confidence
Iran offers to reopen the Strait if the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, but Trump and US officials reject the offer as insufficient, maintaining blockade conditions.
April 30 drops to 13%11%
This diplomatic stalemate pushed market odds lower
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
April 30 drops to 16%12%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to further
US and Iran extend a two-week ceasefire without clear progress;
May 31 drops to 56%13%
calls for lifting the blockade intensify but no official US lift announcement, maintaining market uncertainty and slight
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US maintains blockade;
April 30 plunges to 38%30%
Iranian Foreign Minister had briefly declared it open tied to a ceasefire, but the US refusal to lift blockade led to reclosure, causing market uncertainty and a sharp
U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade;
May 31 rises to 80%3%
Iran captured two U.S.‑linked vessels in retaliation
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, reinforcing US enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting.
April 30 drops to 50%10%
This action likely contributed to a
Iran reportedly lays mines and threatens counter-closure of the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 plunges to 65%17%
US orders Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and triples mine-clearing operations, signaling escalation and no imminent lift, causing market drop
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming its blockade and firing on ships attempting passage, after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
April 30 plunges to 38%25%
Trump confirms the US blockade remains fully in effect, escalating tensions and reducing odds of a near-term lifting
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, reimposing strict military control and firing on ships
May 15 drops to 20%5%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, reimposing strict military control and firing on ships attempting passage, escalating tensions and reducing near-term prospects for blockade lifting
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz;
May 8 plunges to 31%21%
Trump replies on Truth Social that the naval blockade “will remain in full force” despite the opening
Iran declares the strait fully open for the cease‑fire, but Trump posts that the U.S.
June 30 drops to 48%12%
naval blockade will remain “in full force” until negotiations are 100 % complete
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial vessels during a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but President
May 15 drops to 25%8%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial vessels during a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but President Trump simultaneously states the US naval blockade of Iranian ports "will remain in full force," creating mixed signals and market uncertainty
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump reiterates the U.S.
May 8 plunges to 31%21%
blockade will remain in effect
Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait “completely open” for the cease‑fire;
May 31 rises to 83%4%
Trump praised the opening on Truth Social, but warned the blockade would remain
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said U.S.
May 31 dips to 79%2%
forces would “actively pursue any Iranian‑flagged vessel…providing material support to Iran,” underscoring continued enforcement
President Donald Trump announced the U.S.
May 31 surges to 81%33%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately after peace talks collapsed
Trump posts on Truth Social announcing a U.S.
May 31 surges to 85%37%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, citing “illegal tolls” on ships bound for Iranian ports
President Donald Trump announces US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran and causing initial
May 31 surges to 85%37%
President Donald Trump announces US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran and causing initial market confidence near 48%-60% Yes
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran after peace
May 15 dips to 33%1%
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran after peace talks collapse in Islamabad. This official announcement set the market's initial baseline for the blockade's continuation
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