President Trump's US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, imposed on April 13 after failed US-Iran peace talks, remains firmly in place as leverage for a final deal, despite Iran's partial reopening of the strait to commercial traffic on April 17. Trader sentiment reflects persistent tensions, highlighted by Trump's May 11 statement that the ceasefire is on "life support," recent US Navy destroyers exiting the strait under fire on May 7 before rejoining the blockade, and Iranian Guards' threats against US Mideast sites four days ago. No announcement of lifting has occurred, with Project Freedom paused May 5 amid allied concerns; upcoming negotiations or escalation signals could prompt resolution before key oil shipment deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump confirms the blockade will stay in force past the War Powers deadline, dampening hopes of a lift announcement
June 30 dips to 42%3%
Trump confirms the blockade will stay in force past the War Powers deadline, dampening hopes of a lift announcement
Cryptobriefing notes a market‑wide drop to 26% “Yes” after a week of mixed signals, confirming that no official lift announcement had been made and that the blockade remained
Cryptobriefing notes a market‑wide drop to 26% “Yes” after a week of mixed signals, confirming that no official lift announcement had been made and that the blockade remained fully in effect (baseline snapshot).
U.S. Central Command denies Iranian claims of striking a U.S.
May 31 dips to 26%1%
warship, while Tehran issues a four‑week ultimatum demanding blockade removal, keeping tensions high
White House aides are directed to prepare for a prolonged blockade beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit, confirming no imminent lift
June 30 drops to 45%6%
White House aides are directed to prepare for a prolonged blockade beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit, confirming no imminent lift
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure but no U.S. policy change
May 31 dips to 27%1%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure but no U.S. policy change
Iran’s super‑tanker “HUGE” evades U.S.
May 31 drops to 28%13%
naval forces, delivering two million barrels of oil to Indonesia, highlighting enforcement challenges and reducing lift‑announcement expectations
Iran re‑imposes strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
May 31 dips to 41%2%
Iran re‑imposes strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
Trump orders the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any vessels laying mines in the strait and triples mine‑clearing operations, signalling a hardening of the blockade
June 30 drops to 51%6%
Trump orders the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any vessels laying mines in the strait and triples mine‑clearing operations, signalling a hardening of the blockade
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard re‑asserts strict military control of the strait and warns vessels will be targeted;
May 15 dips to 6%4%
Vice‑President J.D. Vance says the U.S. will maintain the blockade
Saudi Arabia publicly urged the United States to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation;
May 31 drops to 27%7%
the appeal failed to produce a U.S. announcement, pushing odds lower
No official US government or President Trump announcement is made to lift the blockade by May 15, solidifying market consensus that the blockade will continue beyond the
No official US government or President Trump announcement is made to lift the blockade by May 15, solidifying market consensus that the blockade will continue beyond the resolution date
No new official lift‑announcement;
May 22 dips to 9%3%
analysts note that Trump’s earlier “Project Freedom” guidance applies only to non‑Iranian traffic, confirming that the blockade stays in place through the deadline
Continued absence of any official US announcement to lift the blockade and ongoing military and diplomatic stalemate keep market confidence low near 22%
May 31 dips to 22%1%
Continued absence of any official US announcement to lift the blockade and ongoing military and diplomatic stalemate keep market confidence low near 22%
U.S. Central Command denies Iran’s claim of striking a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 53%11%
warship, reducing immediate escalation risk and giving a modest uptick in lift expectations (derived from market bounce on reduced tension; source 1 notes the denial on May 6, which continued to influence sentiment through early May).
U.S. Navy announces a “shoot‑and‑kill” order for any Iranian boats laying mines in the strait, signalling escalation and reducing lift‑probability
May 22 drops to 12%11%
U.S. Navy announces a “shoot‑and‑kill” order for any Iranian boats laying mines in the strait, signalling escalation and reducing lift‑probability
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the Strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, escalating
May 31 plunges to 23%18%
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the Strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, escalating tensions and pushing market lower
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, confirming no
May 15 dips to 2%1%
Iran re-imposes strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian-flagged ships and stating the waterway will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade, confirming no imminent US lifting and pushing market
UKMTO reports the threat level in the Strait remains “critical” amid heightened military activity, underscoring continued U.S. enforcement
May 31 plunges to 43%16%
UKMTO reports the threat level in the Strait remains “critical” amid heightened military activity, underscoring continued U.S. enforcement
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, adding diplomatic pressure for a lift
May 22 drops to 23%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, adding diplomatic pressure for a lift
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to lift the blockade in exchange for concessions, reiterating that the blockade will continue
June 30 drops to 57%14%
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to lift the blockade in exchange for concessions, reiterating that the blockade will continue
US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the Strait but states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reducing market
May 31 drops to 40%10%
US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the Strait but states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reducing market optimism sharply
Trump posts again on Truth Social that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect,” dampening optimism and sending the
May 22 plunges to 31%15%
Trump posts again on Truth Social that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect,” dampening optimism and sending the
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated the next move was Iran’s, reiterating that the U.S. would maintain the blockade
May 31 drops to 34%11%
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated the next move was Iran’s, reiterating that the U.S. would maintain the blockade
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift
May 8 plunges to 1%29%
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift before May 8
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, declaring the blockade will stay until Tehran meets U.S. nuclear demands
May 31 plunges to 59%15%
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, declaring the blockade will stay until Tehran meets U.S. nuclear demands
Trump authorises the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and to target Iranian fast‑boats, heightening escalation and confirming the blockade will stay in place
May 15 drops to 8%5%
Trump authorises the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and to target Iranian fast‑boats, heightening escalation and confirming the blockade will stay in place
The US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the strait but explicitly states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached,
May 15 drops to 5%14%
The US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the strait but explicitly states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade and causing a sharp
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure but no official US lifting announcement,
May 15 dips to 3%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure but no official US lifting announcement, maintaining low market confidence in blockade removal by May 15
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation, but no US official statement indicates lifting, maintaining low market confidence
May 8 drops to 3%6%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation, but no US official statement indicates lifting, maintaining low market confidence
Reports confirm Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Iran meets US nuclear demands,
May 31 surges to 50%25%
Reports confirm Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Iran meets US nuclear demands, causing a temporary market rebound
No new official announcement of a blockade lift appears;
the continued absence of a qualifying statement keeps the “Yes”
U.S. Central Command confirms the first U.S.–flagged vessel has safely transited the strait under Project Freedom, prompting traders to bet on a possible lift
May 22 rises to 46%3%
U.S. Central Command confirms the first U.S.–flagged vessel has safely transited the strait under Project Freedom, prompting traders to bet on a possible lift
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
May 8 dips to 3%2%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lift announcement soon
White House spokesperson reiterates that the U.S.
June 30 drops to 59%12%
naval blockade remains “fully in effect” until a deal is reached, dampening lift‑expectations and pulling the
A brief market rally occurs as traders speculate on possible diplomatic breakthroughs, but no official announcement of lifting the blockade is made; the
May 15 surges to 27%19%
A brief market rally occurs as traders speculate on possible diplomatic breakthroughs, but no official announcement of lifting the blockade is made; the
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of regional escalation, adding diplomatic pressure but no US lift announcement, contributing to market
May 31 plunges to 25%16%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of regional escalation, adding diplomatic pressure but no US lift announcement, contributing to market decline
The Guardian live‑blog notes Trump’s pause of the ship‑guidance effort and his statement that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”
May 8 drops to 3%5%
The Guardian live‑blog notes Trump’s pause of the ship‑guidance effort and his statement that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully
June 30 surges to 71%15%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and ready for business,” sparking optimism that the U.S. blockade could be lifted
Trump announces “Project Freedom,” directing the Navy to guide neutral commercial ships through the strait while keeping the blockade on Iranian ports
May 22 surges to 43%16%
Trump announces “Project Freedom,” directing the Navy to guide neutral commercial ships through the strait while keeping the blockade on Iranian ports
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full
May 8 dips to 4%2%
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full effect
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused for a short period while negotiations progress, again stressing the blockade remains in effect
May 8 dips to 8%4%
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused for a short period while negotiations progress, again stressing the blockade remains in effect
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced and that the operation is set to continue
Trump launches “Project Freedom” to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while explicitly maintaining the blockade until a comprehensive deal, reinforcing
May 31 dips to 41%4%
Trump launches “Project Freedom” to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while explicitly maintaining the blockade until a comprehensive deal, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade and market drop
Trump launches “Project Freedom,” ordering the Navy to escort neutral commercial vessels through the strait while explicitly stating the blockade remains in force
May 31 drops to 74%5%
Trump launches “Project Freedom,” ordering the Navy to escort neutral commercial vessels through the strait while explicitly stating the blockade remains in force
Trump launches “Project Freedom,” directing the U.S.
June 30 surges to 71%23%
Navy to guide stranded neutral commercial ships through Hormuz while keeping the blockade on Iranian ports
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a
May 8 dips to 5%3%
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a lift before May 8 is unlikely
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not
May 22 drops to 16%10%
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not being lifted
The White House warned shipping firms not to pay Iranian “tolls,” reinforcing strict enforcement and dampening hopes of a lift
May 31 plunges to 45%15%
The White House warned shipping firms not to pay Iranian “tolls,” reinforcing strict enforcement and dampening hopes of a lift
U.S. officials warn shipping firms not to pay Iranian tolls, reinforcing strict enforcement of the blockade
May 15 drops to 11%5%
U.S. officials warn shipping firms not to pay Iranian tolls, reinforcing strict enforcement of the blockade
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls and enforces strict blockade measures, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
May 8 drops to 4%5%
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls and enforces strict blockade measures, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
U.S. Central Command issues a statement confirming continued enforcement of the blockade and no indication of an upcoming lift
May 8 dips to 8%3%
U.S. Central Command issues a statement confirming continued enforcement of the blockade and no indication of an upcoming lift
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S.
May 22 dips to 26%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S. lift announcement
Trump announces “Project Freedom,” a U.S.
May 8 drops to 12%10%
operation to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, but makes clear the blockade itself is unchanged
President Trump orders the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing operations, signaling escalation and no intention
May 15 drops to 8%6%
President Trump orders the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing operations, signaling escalation and no intention to lift the blockade soon, further depressing market optimism
Trump reiterates “blockade will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, rejecting Iran’s offer to open the strait
May 22 plunges to 27%33%
Trump reiterates “blockade will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, rejecting Iran’s offer to open the strait
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting diplomatic pressure on Trump
May 8 drops to 11%11%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting diplomatic pressure on Trump
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, tripling mine‑clearing operations and confirming the blockade will stay in force
June 30 plunges to 56%15%
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, tripling mine‑clearing operations and confirming the blockade will stay in force
Trump reiterates that the U.S. blockade “will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, despite earlier talk of opening the strait
May 8 plunges to 30%22%
Trump reiterates that the U.S. blockade “will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, despite earlier talk of opening the strait
CNBC reports Trump’s statement that the blockade will stay until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, underscoring no imminent lift
May 8 drops to 22%8%
CNBC reports Trump’s statement that the blockade will stay until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, underscoring no imminent lift
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s offer to reopen the strait and says the blockade will remain “in full force” until a deal is reached
May 15 drops to 10%10%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s offer to reopen the strait and says the blockade will remain “in full force” until a deal is reached
Trump directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, confirming the measure would stay in force beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit
May 31 drops to 60%14%
Trump directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, confirming the measure would stay in force beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to
May 22 dips to 26%4%
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to non‑Iranian ports are still allowed
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
April 30 dips to 0%3%
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed until the U.S.
May 22 plunges to 30%30%
blockade is lifted, warning vessels that any approach will be treated as hostile
Reports confirm sanctioned tankers continue to pass through the Strait despite the blockade, exposing enforcement gaps but no official lifting announcement.
April 30 dips to 3%3%
Traders interpret this as erosion of blockade effectiveness but not a formal end, pushing
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear
May 8 plunges to 10%42%
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear demands, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after peace talks collapse and Iran rejects partial reopening offers, confirming low near-term prospects for
May 31 drops to 45%11%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after peace talks collapse and Iran rejects partial reopening offers, confirming low near-term prospects for lifting, leading to further
President Trump tells aides to prepare for a prolonged U.S.
May 15 jumps to 39%5%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, signalling no near‑term lift
White House aides directed to prepare for an “extended” Hormuz blockade, signalling no near‑term lift despite diplomatic overtures
May 31 drops to 79%6%
White House aides directed to prepare for an “extended” Hormuz blockade, signalling no near‑term lift despite diplomatic overtures
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling
May 15 drops to 14%6%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade and causing a sharp drop in market confidence
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, underscoring a strategy of sustained pressure on Iran amid stalled diplomacy and no lifting announcement.
April 30 drops to 6%7%
This official preparation for prolonging the blockade further reduced market confidence in lifting by April 30
Iran offers to reopen the Strait if the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, but Trump and US officials reject the offer as insufficient, maintaining blockade conditions.
April 30 drops to 13%11%
This diplomatic stalemate pushed market odds lower
Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the strait and tripled mine‑clearing operations, signalling no imminent lift
May 31 drops to 74%6%
Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the strait and tripled mine‑clearing operations, signalling no imminent lift
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
April 30 drops to 16%12%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to further
US and Iran extend a two-week ceasefire without clear progress;
May 31 drops to 56%13%
calls for lifting the blockade intensify but no official US lift announcement, maintaining market uncertainty and slight
U.S. announces an indefinite cease‑fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
May 8 drops to 5%6%
U.S. announces an indefinite cease‑fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US maintains blockade;
April 30 plunges to 38%30%
Iranian Foreign Minister had briefly declared it open tied to a ceasefire, but the US refusal to lift blockade led to reclosure, causing market uncertainty and a sharp
U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade;
May 31 rises to 80%3%
Iran captured two U.S.‑linked vessels in retaliation
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, reinforcing US enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting.
April 30 drops to 50%10%
This action likely contributed to a
Iran reportedly lays mines and threatens counter-closure of the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 plunges to 65%17%
US orders Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and triples mine-clearing operations, signaling escalation and no imminent lift, causing market drop
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard again closes the strait and threatens vessels, signalling that any U.S. lift would be moot
May 8 drops to 22%9%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard again closes the strait and threatens vessels, signalling that any U.S. lift would be moot
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, reimposing strict military control and firing on ships
May 15 drops to 20%5%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, reimposing strict military control and firing on ships attempting passage, escalating tensions and reducing near-term prospects for blockade lifting
Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway would stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
May 31 drops to 77%6%
Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway would stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming its blockade and firing on ships attempting passage, after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
April 30 plunges to 38%25%
Trump confirms the US blockade remains fully in effect, escalating tensions and reducing odds of a near-term lifting
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz;
May 8 plunges to 31%21%
Trump replies on Truth Social that the naval blockade “will remain in full force” despite the opening
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial vessels during a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but President
May 15 drops to 25%8%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial vessels during a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but President Trump simultaneously states the US naval blockade of Iranian ports "will remain in full force," creating mixed signals and market uncertainty
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump reiterates the U.S.
May 8 plunges to 31%21%
blockade will remain in effect
Iran declares the strait fully open for the cease‑fire, but Trump posts that the U.S.
June 30 drops to 48%12%
naval blockade will remain “in full force” until negotiations are 100 % complete
Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait “completely open” for the cease‑fire;
May 31 rises to 83%4%
Trump praised the opening on Truth Social, but warned the blockade would remain
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said U.S.
May 31 dips to 79%2%
forces would “actively pursue any Iranian‑flagged vessel…providing material support to Iran,” underscoring continued enforcement
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
May 8 plunges to 11%20%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
President Donald Trump announced the U.S.
May 31 surges to 81%33%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately after peace talks collapsed
Trump posts on Truth Social announcing a U.S.
May 31 surges to 85%37%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, citing “illegal tolls” on ships bound for Iranian ports
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran after peace
May 15 dips to 33%1%
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran after peace talks collapse in Islamabad. This official announcement set the market's initial baseline for the blockade's continuation
President Donald Trump announces US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran and causing initial
May 31 surges to 85%37%
President Donald Trump announces US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade to pressure Tehran and causing initial market confidence near 48%-60% Yes
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and
April 30 jumps to 60%11%
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to pressure Tehran. This initial announcement set the market near 49%-60% Yes as traders
President Trump announces on Truth Social that the United States will immediately begin a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran‑U.S. peace talks collapse
June 30 jumps to 60%11%
President Trump announces on Truth Social that the United States will immediately begin a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran‑U.S. peace talks collapse
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