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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

21%

chance

$14m Vol.

repeat-3daily
US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

January 11

4%

January 12

12%

January 11

4%

January 12

12%

$9m Vol.

Another US strike on Venezuela on...? card icon

Another US strike on Venezuela on...?

January 9

<1%

January 10

<1%

January 9

<1%

January 10

<1%

$3m Vol.

US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

January 11

4%

January 12

18%

January 11

4%

January 12

18%

$2m Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

34%

chance

$7m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

15%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

40%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3daily
Will Khamenei leave Iran by...? card icon

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?

January 16

3%

January 31

11%

January 16

3%

January 31

11%

$4m Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

15%

chance

$880k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Another US strike on Venezuela by...? card icon

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

January 10

<1%

January 17

3%

January 10

<1%

January 17

3%

$1m Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? card icon

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

14%

chance

$6m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...? card icon

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

January 10

3%

January 12

84%

January 10

3%

January 12

84%

$1m Vol.

repeat-3daily
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

50%

chance

$1m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

47%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3daily
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

60%

chance

$968k Vol.

repeat-3daily
Next Country US Strikes card icon

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

50%

Iran

25%

Somalia

50%

Iran

25%

$355k Vol.

repeat-3monthly