Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the succession by early March amid active conflict. An interim leadership council managed the transition under constitutional procedures while the 88-member Assembly selected the new leader. The Islamic Republic has maintained continuity through wartime operations, IRGC influence, and limited public appearances by the new Supreme Leader, who was reportedly injured in the same attacks. Trader consensus reflects this rapid institutional adaptation and absence of major internal challenges or external regime-change breakthroughs since March, keeping near-term leadership change probabilities low through late 2026 while assigning modestly higher odds to later windows such as mid-2027. Ongoing military developments, potential diplomatic shifts, or health-related factors remain the primary variables that could alter positioning.