Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by early March. This rapid transition occurred amid ongoing conflict, domestic economic strain, and IRGC influence over institutional appointments, shifting decision-making toward security-focused figures while preserving regime continuity. Trader sentiment reflects the completed dynastic handover and limited near-term alternatives, though future volatility could arise from internal power consolidation or external diplomatic pressures within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,338,853 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
11%
November 30
14%
December 31
19%
June 30, 2027
32%
$23,338,853 Vol.
August 15
$38,508 Vol.
<1%
August 22
$22,227 Vol.
1%
August 31
$1,116,047 Vol.
3%
September 30
$422,102 Vol.
7%
October 31
$7,505 Vol.
11%
November 30
$8,810 Vol.
14%
December 31
$3,961,635 Vol.
19%
June 30, 2027
$215,642 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by early March. This rapid transition occurred amid ongoing conflict, domestic economic strain, and IRGC influence over institutional appointments, shifting decision-making toward security-focused figures while preserving regime continuity. Trader sentiment reflects the completed dynastic handover and limited near-term alternatives, though future volatility could arise from internal power consolidation or external diplomatic pressures within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,338,853End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by early March. This rapid transition occurred amid ongoing conflict, domestic economic strain, and IRGC influence over institutional appointments, shifting decision-making toward security-focused figures while preserving regime continuity. Trader sentiment reflects the completed dynastic handover and limited near-term alternatives, though future volatility could arise from internal power consolidation or external diplomatic pressures within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,338,853End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by early March. This rapid transition occurred amid ongoing conflict, domestic economic strain, and IRGC influence over institutional appointments, shifting decision-making toward security-focused figures while preserving regime continuity. Trader sentiment reflects the completed dynastic handover and limited near-term alternatives, though future volatility could arise from internal power consolidation or external diplomatic pressures within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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