The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after nationwide protests in late 2025 and early 2026, triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation above 50 percent, underpins trader expectations of continuity. Security forces contained demonstrations across all provinces through mass arrests, lethal force, and prolonged internet shutdowns, with no verified large-scale defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. External pressure peaked in February 2026 with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet the clerical establishment quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, reorganized command structures, and quelled follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing appointments, factional management, and institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation show the Islamic Republic adapting without signs of imminent overthrow before the year-end resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$24,758,517 Vol.
$24,758,517 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$24,758,517 Vol.
$24,758,517 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after nationwide protests in late 2025 and early 2026, triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation above 50 percent, underpins trader expectations of continuity. Security forces contained demonstrations across all provinces through mass arrests, lethal force, and prolonged internet shutdowns, with no verified large-scale defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. External pressure peaked in February 2026 with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet the clerical establishment quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, reorganized command structures, and quelled follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing appointments, factional management, and institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation show the Islamic Republic adapting without signs of imminent overthrow before the year-end resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$24,758,517End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after nationwide protests in late 2025 and early 2026, triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation above 50 percent, underpins trader expectations of continuity. Security forces contained demonstrations across all provinces through mass arrests, lethal force, and prolonged internet shutdowns, with no verified large-scale defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. External pressure peaked in February 2026 with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet the clerical establishment quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, reorganized command structures, and quelled follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing appointments, factional management, and institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation show the Islamic Republic adapting without signs of imminent overthrow before the year-end resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,787,417End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after nationwide protests in late 2025 and early 2026, triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation above 50 percent, underpins trader expectations of continuity. Security forces contained demonstrations across all provinces through mass arrests, lethal force, and prolonged internet shutdowns, with no verified large-scale defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. External pressure peaked in February 2026 with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet the clerical establishment quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, reorganized command structures, and quelled follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing appointments, factional management, and institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation show the Islamic Republic adapting without signs of imminent overthrow before the year-end resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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