The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity, rapid leadership succession, and security apparatus cohesion underpin the 94.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role within hours, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij forces sustaining control amid nationwide protests that began in January and produced thousands of deaths and arrests. External military strikes, a U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and severe economic contraction—including sharp rial depreciation—have strained resources without triggering mass defections or state fragmentation. Recent indirect U.S.-Iran talks on sanctions relief and Hormuz access reflect ongoing diplomatic channels rather than imminent breakdown, while the regime’s opaque, security-centered structure has absorbed shocks to date.