**Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have both publicly rejected a renewed joint list for Israel’s October 2026 Knesset election.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner for a combined list, and believes it can clear the threshold on its own. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has similarly signaled a preference for separate runs to maximize right-wing seats, including comments earlier in 2026 that his Otzma Yehudit party has an important standalone role. These positions follow their 2022 joint list (which delivered 14 seats before splitting into separate factions) and occur despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reported efforts to encourage another merger for bloc stability. Recent polling shows Otzma Yehudit polling more strongly than Religious Zionism, reducing incentives for Smotrich to accept a subordinate position. The parties’ explicit rejection of an alliance, combined with their separate factional positioning in the current Knesset, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the 66% “No” probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
32% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have both publicly rejected a renewed joint list for Israel’s October 2026 Knesset election.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner for a combined list, and believes it can clear the threshold on its own. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has similarly signaled a preference for separate runs to maximize right-wing seats, including comments earlier in 2026 that his Otzma Yehudit party has an important standalone role.
These positions follow their 2022 joint list (which delivered 14 seats before splitting into separate factions) and occur despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reported efforts to encourage another merger for bloc stability. Recent polling shows Otzma Yehudit polling more strongly than Religious Zionism, reducing incentives for Smotrich to accept a subordinate position. The parties’ explicit rejection of an alliance, combined with their separate factional positioning in the current Knesset, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the 66% “No” probability.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$479End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have both publicly rejected a renewed joint list for Israel’s October 2026 Knesset election.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner for a combined list, and believes it can clear the threshold on its own. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has similarly signaled a preference for separate runs to maximize right-wing seats, including comments earlier in 2026 that his Otzma Yehudit party has an important standalone role.
These positions follow their 2022 joint list (which delivered 14 seats before splitting into separate factions) and occur despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reported efforts to encourage another merger for bloc stability. Recent polling shows Otzma Yehudit polling more strongly than Religious Zionism, reducing incentives for Smotrich to accept a subordinate position. The parties’ explicit rejection of an alliance, combined with their separate factional positioning in the current Knesset, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the 66% “No” probability.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$479End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have both publicly rejected a renewed joint list for Israel’s October 2026 Knesset election.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner for a combined list, and believes it can clear the threshold on its own. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has similarly signaled a preference for separate runs to maximize right-wing seats, including comments earlier in 2026 that his Otzma Yehudit party has an important standalone role. These positions follow their 2022 joint list (which delivered 14 seats before splitting into separate factions) and occur despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reported efforts to encourage another merger for bloc stability. Recent polling shows Otzma Yehudit polling more strongly than Religious Zionism, reducing incentives for Smotrich to accept a subordinate position. The parties’ explicit rejection of an alliance, combined with their separate factional positioning in the current Knesset, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the 66% “No” probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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