Recent polls from Victory Insights place Catalina Lauf and Jim Schwartzel in a statistical tie at roughly 19% each among likely Republican primary voters in Florida's 19th District, with Jim Oberweis in third at around 12% and over a quarter of voters undecided just days before the August 18 contest. Self-funding has shaped the field, as Oberweis has loaned millions while Lauf leads in individual contributions and secured recent endorsements from Florida lawmakers. The crowded 10-candidate race, limited outside donor involvement, and emphasis on local ties versus national profiles have kept the top two contenders closely matched. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing assigns Lauf and Schwartzel the strongest implied probabilities, with separation likely to emerge from final campaign spending, turnout efforts, or late shifts among undecided voters in this open seat primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCatalina Lauf 44%
Jim Schwartzel 40.9%
Jim Oberweis 11.6%
Madison Cawthorn 2.6%
$48,882 Vol.
$48,882 Vol.

Catalina Lauf
44%

Jim Schwartzel
41%

Jim Oberweis
12%

Madison Cawthorn
3%

Bob Rommel
2%

Spencer Roach
1%
Catalina Lauf 44%
Jim Schwartzel 40.9%
Jim Oberweis 11.6%
Madison Cawthorn 2.6%
$48,882 Vol.
$48,882 Vol.

Catalina Lauf
44%

Jim Schwartzel
41%

Jim Oberweis
12%

Madison Cawthorn
3%

Bob Rommel
2%

Spencer Roach
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Victory Insights place Catalina Lauf and Jim Schwartzel in a statistical tie at roughly 19% each among likely Republican primary voters in Florida's 19th District, with Jim Oberweis in third at around 12% and over a quarter of voters undecided just days before the August 18 contest. Self-funding has shaped the field, as Oberweis has loaned millions while Lauf leads in individual contributions and secured recent endorsements from Florida lawmakers. The crowded 10-candidate race, limited outside donor involvement, and emphasis on local ties versus national profiles have kept the top two contenders closely matched. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing assigns Lauf and Schwartzel the strongest implied probabilities, with separation likely to emerge from final campaign spending, turnout efforts, or late shifts among undecided voters in this open seat primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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