Trader consensus reflects a tight contest for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance holding the clearest leads amid broad field fragmentation. This balance arises from competing visions within the party following the prior cycle, where Vance benefits from institutional ties and governing experience while Kennedy draws support through cross-aisle appeal and distinct policy emphases on health and regulatory issues. Midterm results, early primary-state polling shifts, candidate announcements, and endorsements from party leaders could widen gaps or elevate other contenders such as Marco Rubio before formal primary processes begin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGlenn Youngkin launches national non-profit to promote Trump’s scholarship tax credit
Glenn Youngkin's launch of a national non-profit to promote education tax credits aligned him with Trump-backed policies but did not significantly improve his market standing, which remained low.
Glenn Youngkin launches conservative policy group focused on education tax credits
Glenn Youngkin dips to 1%2%
Youngkin's August 2026 launch of a policy group aimed at promoting education tax credits marked his shift to policy advocacy after leaving office, coinciding with his market probability dropping to near zero.
Glenn Youngkin launches national school choice campaign amid 2028 speculation
Glenn Youngkin rises to 2%1%
Youngkin launched a national education policy group promoting school choice, a move interpreted as positioning for a 2028 presidential run, raising his profile and market interest despite endorsing Vance.
Glenn Youngkin launches national education nonprofit amid 2028 speculation
Former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin launched a national policy group focused on education, fueling speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run and maintaining his visibility in GOP circles.
Glenn Youngkin launches education nonprofit amid 2028 speculation
Former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin launched a national education policy group, fueling speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run and keeping his name relevant in the GOP field.
Tucker Carlson unveils 10-point manifesto, intensifying 2028 run speculation
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%1%
Tucker Carlson released a highly promoted livestream outlining a 10-point vision for America, defining a breakaway MAGA faction and fueling further speculation about a 2028 presidential run, increasing his profile among conservative voters.
Glenn Youngkin launches national nonprofit to promote education tax credit
Youngkin launched Empowering America’s Parents to advocate for education tax credits, signaling continued political engagement and improving his market perception.
Donald Trump reiterates he will not run in 2028, endorses Vance-Rubio ticket
President Donald Trump confirmed he will not seek the 2028 nomination and promoted the idea of a Vance-Rubio ticket, reinforcing the leading position of both in the Republican primary market.
JD Vance maintains commanding lead in 2028 Republican nomination race
J.D. Vance rises to 45%3%
Recent polls and endorsements confirm Vice President JD Vance as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with strong support from party leaders and a significant lead over rivals.
JD Vance plans to discuss 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
JD Vance stated he and his wife would decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, maintaining his frontrunner status and keeping the market attentive to his potential candidacy.
Marco Rubio narrows gap with JD Vance in New Hampshire GOP primary poll
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%8%
Marco Rubio surged in New Hampshire GOP primary polling, closing the gap with Vice President JD Vance and intensifying the competition for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
The New York Times highlights Vivek Ramaswamy as potential 2028 presidential contender
Despite his earlier pledge to serve a full term as Ohio governor and not run in 2028, Vivek Ramaswamy was listed by The New York Times as a possible Republican presidential candidate, sparking speculation and keeping his name relevant.
New York Times highlights Vivek Ramaswamy as a 2028 presidential prospect despite prior pledge
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
The New York Times listed Vivek Ramaswamy as a potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate, sparking speculation about his national ambitions despite his earlier public pledge to serve a full term as Ohio governor and not run for president. This caused some market uncertainty but did not significantly raise his odds.
Vivek Ramaswamy emerges as a potential 2028 presidential contender
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Despite previously pledging to serve a full term as Ohio governor, Vivek Ramaswamy was listed by The New York Times as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, sparking speculation about his future ambitions.
The New York Times lists Vivek Ramaswamy as a potential 2028 presidential candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Despite Vivek Ramaswamy’s earlier pledge to serve a full term as Ohio governor and not run in 2028, The New York Times included him as a potential presidential prospect, sparking speculation and briefly affecting his market odds.
Vivek Ramaswamy listed as potential 2028 candidate despite Ohio governorship
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
The New York Times listed Vivek Ramaswamy as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, despite his recent pledge to serve a full term as Ohio governor, indicating ongoing speculation about his future ambitions.
NYT opinion highlights JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Vivek Ramaswamy in 2028 race
The New York Times opinion piece discussed the ongoing battle for the 2028 Republican nomination, focusing on JD Vance as the presumed frontrunner, Rubio as a favorite, and Ramaswamy as a notable contender despite his Ohio governorship.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ohio gubernatorial win challenges his 2028 presidential prospects
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Ramaswamy’s focus on the Ohio governor race and victory there have cast doubt on his 2028 presidential ambitions, reflected in his market odds dropping to near zero.
Vivek Ramaswamy booed off stage at Cincinnati libertarian convention
Ramaswamy faced backlash at a libertarian event in his hometown, signaling challenges in broadening his political appeal and contributing to his market price decline.
Vivek Ramaswamy confirms no 2028 presidential run, focusing on Ohio governorship
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy publicly dismissed any 2028 presidential ambitions, emphasizing his focus on serving a full term as Ohio governor, which caused his market price to plummet from 18% to 1%.
Donald Trump announces 2028 presidential bid at White House Correspondents’ Dinner
President Donald Trump announced his intention to run for a fourth term in a speech at the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Dinner, wearing a 'Trump 2028' cap, reviving speculation despite constitutional term limits.
Marco Rubio affirms U.S. readiness to end 'senseless war' in Ukraine and pushes diplomacy
Marco Rubio rises to 28%1%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the need for a diplomatic solution to ongoing conflicts, enhancing his profile as a pragmatic GOP leader and boosting his nomination prospects.
J.D. Vance announces birth of fourth child, boosting public profile
J.D. Vance rises to 43%3%
The announcement of J.D. Vance's fourth child, a rare event for a sitting Vice President, increased his visibility and positively affected his market probability.
Marco Rubio narrows gap with JD Vance in latest 2028 Republican primary poll
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%5%
A new Emerson College poll showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio running neck-and-neck with Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflecting Rubio's rising popularity and tightening race.
Donald Trump hosts Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit
Donald Trump dips to 1%1%
Trump's active presidential duties and public appearances in 2026 reflected his ongoing political ambitions, though his market price declined due to other factors.
Marco Rubio launches campaign to dismantle International Criminal Court
Marco Rubio rises to 23%2%
Rubio's July 2026 announcement to dismantle the ICC highlighted his aggressive foreign policy stance, boosting his profile and contributing to a steady increase in his market probability.
Marco Rubio unveils plan to dismantle International Criminal Court
Marco Rubio rises to 28%3%
Rubio's aggressive foreign policy stance and public campaign against the ICC elevated his profile among conservatives, boosting his nomination market price.
Glenn Youngkin joins Red Cell Partners as chairman
Youngkin's move to a private equity venture firm marked a shift away from active politics, contributing to his low market price as a presidential nominee.
Marco Rubio launches campaign to dismantle International Criminal Court
Marco Rubio rises to 24%2%
Marco Rubio unveiled a plan to dismantle the ICC, asserting it threatens US sovereignty, which reinforced his profile as a strong foreign policy figure and influenced his market position.
JD Vance maintains lead in 2028 GOP nomination polls despite challenges
J.D. Vance rises to 43%2%
Despite some fluctuations, JD Vance continued to hold a commanding lead in polls for the 2028 Republican nomination, supported by endorsements and strong party backing.
Tucker Carlson officially leaves Republican Party amid 2028 speculation
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%4%
Tucker Carlson publicly announced he no longer supports the Republican Party, fueling speculation about his political future and impacting his 2028 nomination chances.
Marco Rubio asserts control over Venezuela's finances and government policies
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%6%
Rubio's influential role in U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding Venezuela, increased his stature and market price as a potential presidential nominee.
Marco Rubio narrows gap with JD Vance in New Hampshire 2028 GOP primary poll
Marco Rubio rises to 26%3%
A New Hampshire poll showed Rubio closing in on Vance in the 2028 GOP primary race, reflecting Rubio's rising popularity and tightening competition for the nomination.
Donald Trump reportedly selects successor for 2028 Republican nomination
Donald Trump dips to 1%1%
Reports emerged that President Donald Trump had chosen a preferred successor for the 2028 Republican nomination, influencing market perceptions and contributing to the decline in Trump's own nomination odds.
Tucker Carlson rules out 2028 presidential bid
Tucker Carlson officially ruled out running for president in 2028, confirming his break with the Republican Party and reducing his market odds further.
Tucker Carlson announces plans to help launch a third political party
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Following his break with the GOP, Carlson revealed intentions to build a third party, further reducing his chances for the Republican nomination and impacting his market price negatively.
Tucker Carlson announces departure from GOP and plans for new political party
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%2%
Carlson publicly left the Republican Party citing disloyalty and foreign influence, signaling a break that diminished his chances as the Republican nominee.
Donald Trump reports $2.2 billion income in 2025, mostly from cryptocurrencies
Donald Trump dips to 1%2%
Trump's massive reported income, largely from crypto ventures managed by his son Donald Trump Jr., raised his profile but did not translate into nomination market gains, which remained low.
Tucker Carlson announces plans to build a new third party
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%2%
Carlson's announcement to help build a new political party further distanced him from the GOP, reducing his viability as the Republican nominee and fragmenting conservative support.
JD Vance maintains lead as frontrunner for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
Vice President JD Vance's continued political activity and endorsements helped sustain his position as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, reflected in stable market odds.
Vivek Ramaswamy secures Republican nomination for Ohio governor, shifting focus from presidential run
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy's successful bid for Ohio governor in 2026 and his focus on state politics led to a significant drop in his 2028 presidential nomination odds.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary, signaling shift away from 2028 presidential ambitions
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy secured the Republican nomination for Ohio governor, endorsed by President Trump and the Ohio GOP, signaling a shift away from his 2028 presidential ambitions and causing his market odds to plummet from 18% to 1%.
JD Vance says he will decide on 2028 presidential run after midterms
J.D. Vance rises to 38%1%
JD Vance stated he would discuss a potential 2028 presidential run with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections, maintaining focus on his vice presidential duties for now.
New poll shows JD Vance ahead of potential 2028 candidates by double digits
A national poll showed Vice President JD Vance leading the potential 2028 Republican primary field with a commanding advantage, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the nomination race.
JD Vance maintains front-runner status despite polling fluctuations
J.D. Vance jumps to 39%6%
JD Vance remained the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination in mid-2026, though his market price fluctuated due to mixed polling and political challenges.
Donald Trump publicly expresses doubts about J.D. Vance's 2028 nomination chances
J.D. Vance dips to 34%4%
President Trump publicly questioned J.D. Vance's ability to secure the 2028 Republican nomination, causing uncertainty and a decline in Vance's market price. This statement introduced volatility and speculation about the party's future leadership.
Poll shows J.D. Vance leading Rubio by double digits for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 44%1%
A national poll conducted in late June 2026 showed Vice President J.D. Vance with a commanding lead over Secretary of State Marco Rubio among likely Republican voters, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status and supporting his market position.
Marco Rubio surges in 2028 Republican presidential primary polls
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio's support in national 2028 Republican primary polling surged to near parity with JD Vance, reflecting a competitive race for the nomination.
New poll shows JD Vance leading 2028 Republican primary field
A national poll conducted in late June 2026 showed Vice President JD Vance with a commanding lead over other potential Republican contenders, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the nomination race.
Tucker Carlson Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run in Interview with Alex Jones
Tucker Carlson dips to 5%2%
Tucker Carlson officially put to rest any speculation about a potential run for the presidency in 2028, stating he has absolutely no interest in seeking political office, causing his market price to drop.
New poll shows J.D. Vance leading GOP field with 35% support, Rubio at 15%
J.D. Vance dips to 37%1%
A McLaughlin & Associates poll showed J.D. Vance leading the Republican primary field with 35% support, followed by Marco Rubio at 15%. This reinforced Vance's frontrunner status but also highlighted Rubio's growing presence, affecting market dynamics.
Ron DeSantis officially ends 2024 presidential bid, endorses Trump
Ron DeSantis dips to 2%1%
Ron DeSantis withdrew from the 2024 presidential race in early 2026, endorsing Donald Trump and shifting focus away from the 2028 nomination, leading to a collapse in his market price.
Tucker Carlson rules out 2028 presidential bid, pledges support for J.D. Vance
Carlson denied plans to run for president in 2028 and expressed support for J.D. Vance, clarifying his political intentions and impacting his market position.
Tucker Carlson quits Republican Party, denies 2028 presidential run
Tucker Carlson dips to 4%3%
Tucker Carlson publicly announced he would not support the Republican Party and denied plans to run for president in 2028, leading to a decline in his market odds despite ongoing speculation about his candidacy.
Tucker Carlson distances himself from Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%2%
Carlson publicly disavowed the Republican Party, causing his market odds to slip from 5 % (2026‑05‑12) to 3 % (2026‑07‑03).
Tucker Carlson leaves Republican Party, fueling 2028 run speculation
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson announced he no longer supports the Republican Party, criticizing its stance on the Iran war, which led to speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run despite his denials.
Tucker Carlson shoots down presidential run as he teases 2028 plans after breaking with Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%4%
Tucker Carlson publicly denied plans to run for president in 2028 while announcing his departure from the Republican Party, leading to a decline in his market odds despite ongoing speculation.
Tucker Carlson quits GOP, signaling break with Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%2%
Tucker Carlson publicly announced he would no longer support the Republican Party, citing disagreements over the Iran war and other issues, causing his market probability to decline from 5% to 3%.
Tucker Carlson publicly breaks with Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 5%1%
Carlson announced he would no longer support the GOP, citing disagreements over the Iran war and party loyalty, which maintained his low market price and diminished his nomination chances.
Tucker Carlson quits the Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%3%
Tucker Carlson announced he would no longer support the GOP, citing disagreements over the Iran war and party direction, leading to a sharp decline in his market price as his presidential prospects dimmed.
Tucker Carlson officially leaves Republican Party, denies 2028 presidential run
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%3%
Tucker Carlson announced he is no longer a Republican and denied plans to run for president in 2028, though he left open the possibility of involvement in the election. His break with the GOP and criticism of Trump caused a brief surge in his nomination odds, which later declined.
Tucker Carlson announces he will no longer support the Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%3%
Tucker Carlson publicly renounced the GOP, citing disillusionment with its foreign policy and leadership, leading to a sharp decline in his nomination odds.
Tucker Carlson announces departure from Republican Party, fueling 2028 run speculation
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson declared he no longer supports the GOP, criticizing its loyalty and foreign policy, which sparked speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run despite his denials.
Tucker Carlson quits Republican Party, citing disagreement over Iran war
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%3%
Carlson publicly announced his departure from the GOP in June 2026 due to opposition to the U.S. war in Iran, leading to a decline in his market probability for the Republican nomination.
Tucker Carlson publicly disavows Republican Party, says he will not support them
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%4%
Tucker Carlson announced he is leaving the Republican Party, criticizing its foreign policy and support for Israel, which led to a decline in his nomination odds as he distanced himself from GOP politics.
Tucker Carlson denies 2028 presidential run but supports J.D. Vance
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%2%
Tucker Carlson publicly denied plans to run for president in 2028 but expressed support for J.D. Vance, reflecting his break with the Republican Party and influencing his low market odds.
Tucker Carlson rules out 2028 presidential run but leaves door open for involvement
Tucker Carlson dips to 6%1%
Tucker Carlson publicly denied plans to run for president in 2028 but expressed interest in being involved in the election, which maintained speculation and market interest in his potential candidacy.
Tucker Carlson announces he is done supporting the Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%3%
Carlson's public break with the GOP and his declining favorability contributed to his low market price for the 2028 nomination.
Tucker Carlson announces departure from Republican Party
Tucker Carlson drops to 3%5%
Carlson publicly declared he was leaving the GOP due to disagreements over the Iran war, leading to a decline in his nomination market price.
Tucker Carlson announces he will no longer support the Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%4%
Carlson publicly declared his break with the Republican Party, diminishing his chances for the 2028 nomination and causing his market price to fall.
Tucker Carlson announces break with Republican Party
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%4%
Carlson publicly declared he would no longer support the GOP, citing foreign policy disagreements, signaling a significant fracture in conservative politics and diminishing his chances as a Republican nominee.
Marco Rubio maintains strong support for 2028 nomination
Marco Rubio dips to 22%3%
Rubio's continued private and public support for Vance, along with his own rising profile, helped stabilize his market price near its peak, reflecting his status as a leading contender.
Donald Trump Jr. gains momentum as 2028 GOP contender
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 2%1%
Donald Trump Jr. has surged in polls and prediction markets, especially among younger voters, raising speculation about a future presidential run and narrowing the gap with frontrunner J.D. Vance.
Marco Rubio rises in 2028 GOP nomination odds amid growing endorsements
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's market odds for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination increased due to his active role in foreign policy and endorsements from key party figures, positioning him as a strong contender against JD Vance.
JD Vance arrives in Switzerland to launch Iran nuclear negotiations
J.D. Vance rises to 37%3%
JD Vance led U.S. efforts in Switzerland to negotiate technical details of the Iran nuclear deal, a high-stakes diplomatic mission influencing his 2028 prospects.
Donald Trump Jr. defends family’s political legacy on Fox News
Trump Jr. appeared on Fox News defending the family legacy; his market price held steady at 2 % after the earlier plunge.
Vice President J.D. Vance delays 2028 presidential decision until after midterms
J.D. Vance drops to 33%6%
In a CBS Sunday Morning interview, Vice President J.D. Vance stated he had not yet decided whether to run for president in 2028 and would discuss the matter with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections. He expressed confidence in President Trump's support if he chooses to run, maintaining focus on current responsibilities.
J.D. Vance delays decision on 2028 presidential run until after midterms
Vice President J.D. Vance stated he has not yet decided whether to run for president in 2028 and will discuss the matter with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections, maintaining focus on current responsibilities.
JD Vance says he will decide on 2028 presidential run after midterms
Vice President JD Vance stated he will discuss a potential 2028 presidential run with his family after the 2026 midterm elections, maintaining uncertainty but reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Vice President JD Vance says he will decide on 2028 presidential run after midterms
JD Vance stated he has not made a decision about running for president in 2028 and will discuss it with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections, emphasizing his current focus on vice presidential duties.
J.D. Vance says decision on 2028 run will come after 2026 midterms
J.D. Vance drops to 33%6%
Vice President J.D. Vance stated he has not yet decided whether to run for president in 2028 and will discuss it with his family after the 2026 midterm elections. He emphasized focusing on current responsibilities, which caused some market fluctuations.
J.D. Vance says he will decide on 2028 presidential run after midterm elections
Vice President J.D. Vance stated he has not yet decided on a 2028 presidential bid and will discuss it with his family after the 2026 midterms, maintaining focus on current responsibilities and signaling a cautious approach to the race.
JD Vance leads U.S. negotiations on Iran nuclear deal amid GOP backlash
J.D. Vance rises to 34%3%
Vice President JD Vance took a central role in negotiating a ceasefire and nuclear deal with Iran, which drew criticism from GOP hawks and affected his political standing.
Ron DeSantis fundraising and rebranding efforts signal 2028 presidential ambitions
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%2%
Ron DeSantis intensified fundraising through his RON PAC and sought to rebrand himself as a more likable candidate, signaling preparation for a 2028 presidential run despite internal GOP resistance, which influenced his market price modestly.
Ron DeSantis gears up for 2028 presidential run with fundraising and donor events
Ron DeSantis has been actively fundraising and holding events to prepare for a 2028 presidential run, signaling his intent despite earlier setbacks and low polling numbers.
Marco Rubio surges in 2028 GOP nomination prediction markets after Trump comments
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
Following positive comments from President Trump about a potential Vance-Rubio ticket, Marco Rubio's odds surged in prediction markets, narrowing the gap with JD Vance and reflecting increased speculation about his viability.
Donald Trump endorses idea of Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
President Trump publicly suggested that a presidential ticket featuring Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be unbeatable in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and boosting their market positions.
Donald Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket again
President Trump reiterated his support for a potential 2028 Republican ticket featuring JD Vance and Marco Rubio, calling them a 'dream team' and boosting their joint prospects.
President Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
President Donald Trump publicly suggested that JD Vance and Marco Rubio should run together on a joint GOP ticket in 2028, boosting both candidates' profiles and market positions.
President Donald Trump promotes J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio as an unbeatable 2028 ticket
President Trump publicly endorsed the idea of Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running together in 2028, calling them an unbeatable team. This endorsement reinforced their frontrunner status and likely supported their market positions, influencing Republican voters and insiders.
President Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
President Donald Trump publicly suggested that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong presidential ticket in 2028, boosting their profiles and market prices.
President Trump promotes idea of Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
Trump publicly suggested that a ticket of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be unbeatable in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and influencing market sentiment.
Donald Trump promotes JD Vance and Marco Rubio as 2028 presidential ticket
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%5%
Trump publicly suggested a Vance-Rubio ticket for 2028, calling them a 'dream team,' which reinforced their status as leading contenders and influenced market sentiment positively for both.
Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket again
President Donald Trump publicly promoted the idea of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running together on a presidential ticket in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and influencing market sentiment.
President Trump again suggests Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
J.D. Vance surges to 56%16%
President Donald Trump publicly promoted the idea of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running together in 2028, calling them an unbeatable team and reinforcing their frontrunner status.
President Trump endorses Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket as unbeatable
President Donald Trump publicly praised the idea of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running together in 2028, calling them an unbeatable team. This endorsement reinforced their frontrunner status and likely supported their market positions.
Marco Rubio's White House press briefing appearance sparks 2028 presidential buzz
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio filled in at the White House press briefing, delivering a message that went viral and boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential run, increasing his market odds.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary, shifts focus from 2028 bid
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy won the Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary, endorsed by President Trump, signaling a shift away from his 2028 presidential ambitions and causing his market odds to plummet.
Marco Rubio's 2028 presidential odds surge amid increased visibility and diplomatic successes
Marco Rubio surges to 27%20%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's chances of becoming the 2028 Republican nominee quadrupled in four months, driven by his leadership in foreign policy, including the US military action in Iran, which was popular among the MAGA base. His increased media presence and endorsements elevated his profile as a top contender alongside Vance.
Tucker Carlson's 2028 Presidential Odds Jump to Nearly 10% on Prediction Markets
Speculation surrounding Tucker Carlson's potential 2028 ambitions drove a sudden spike in his prediction market odds, peaking at nearly 10% on Polymarket.
President Donald Trump promotes idea of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio 2028 ticket
President Trump publicly suggested that Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong presidential ticket in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and influencing market perceptions.
Marco Rubio overtakes JD Vance in prediction market odds amid geopolitical tensions
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Marco Rubio's odds surged ahead of JD Vance on prediction markets following his increased visibility in foreign policy during the Iran conflict and Venezuela's political developments, reflecting shifting market sentiment.
Marco Rubio's 2028 GOP nomination odds surge amid geopolitical tensions
Marco Rubio surges to 30%16%
Marco Rubio's odds for the 2028 Republican nomination surged on prediction markets following his increased visibility during geopolitical events, including the Iran conflict, boosting his perceived viability against JD Vance.
Marco Rubio narrows gap with JD Vance in New Hampshire 2028 GOP primary poll
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Marco Rubio surged in New Hampshire GOP primary polling, closing the gap with JD Vance and intensifying the competition for the 2028 Republican nomination.
Marco Rubio's 2028 nomination odds surge amid Iran war and diplomatic successes
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Rubio's profile rose significantly due to his diplomatic role in the Iran conflict and Venezuela operation, boosting his 2028 nomination odds from around 12% to over 27%, narrowing the gap with JD Vance.
President Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
President Donald Trump publicly suggested that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio could run together as a 'dream team' in the 2028 presidential election, boosting speculation and market confidence in both candidates.
Marco Rubio's odds for GOP 2028 nominee surge amid military operations
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%6%
Marco Rubio's chances of becoming the GOP nominee rose sharply, particularly around key military actions, reflecting increased trader confidence and party support.
Trump questions JD Vance's readiness for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance drops to 30%8%
President Trump publicly expressed doubts about Vance's ability to secure the 2028 nomination, causing uncertainty and a decline in Vance's market price.
Tucker Carlson's 2028 presidential odds rise amid growing buzz
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Tucker Carlson's odds in prediction markets increased significantly as he gained attention for his critical stance on Trump and the Iran war, suggesting a potential insurgent candidacy despite no formal campaign.
Poll shows Rubio catching up to Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%11%
A national poll showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio surging in support, statistically tying with Vice President JD Vance as the top choice among Republican voters for the 2028 nomination. This indicated a competitive primary and boosted Rubio's market position.
Marco Rubio catches up to JD Vance in new 2028 Republican presidential poll
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
A national poll showed Marco Rubio statistically tied with JD Vance as the top choice among Republican voters for the 2028 nomination, signaling a competitive primary race ahead.
Emerson College poll shows J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio virtually tied in 2028 GOP primary
Marco Rubio jumps to 21%7%
A poll from Emerson College revealed a near tie between J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio in the 2028 Republican primary, with Rubio gaining significant ground since February. This poll influenced market prices, boosting Rubio's odds and signaling a competitive race.
Marco Rubio surges in 2028 GOP primary polls, challenging JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 27%15%
Marco Rubio's rising popularity in polls and prediction markets reflects growing support among Republican voters, leading to a significant increase in his market price for the 2028 nomination.
Poll shows Marco Rubio catching up to J.D. Vance in 2028 Republican primary race
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%7%
An Emerson College poll revealed Marco Rubio surging to 35% support among Republican voters, statistically tying with Vice President J.D. Vance at 36%. This marked a significant gain for Rubio and a decline for Vance, indicating a more competitive primary race than previously expected.
Donald Trump again promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket
President Donald Trump publicly praised the idea of Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running together in 2028, calling them an unbeatable team. This endorsement reinforced their frontrunner status and likely supported their market positions.
Donald Trump's approval rating hits all-time low amid economic concerns
Donald Trump dips to 2%2%
Trump's declining approval rating to 39.8% in May 2026 reflected growing voter frustration, correlating with his market support dropping to 2%.
Thomas Massie files statement of candidacy for 2028 House race after primary defeat
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
After losing his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, Thomas Massie filed paperwork to run in the 2028 House race, keeping his political options open and slightly increasing his market odds despite low overall support.
Donald Trump Jr. marries Bettina Anderson in Bahamas ceremony
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.’s public wedding to Bettina Anderson received extensive media coverage, shifting attention away from any campaign speculation and pulling his market price down to 3 %.
Thomas Massie files paperwork to run for office in 2028 after primary loss
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
After losing a Trump-backed primary challenge, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie filed paperwork to run for office again in 2028, signaling a potential political comeback and keeping his options open for a possible presidential run despite low odds.
J.D. Vance publicly considers 2028 presidential run
In a March 2026 interview, Vance indicated a 50-50 chance of running for president in 2028, signaling serious intent and maintaining market interest.
Poll shows Rubio surging to near tie with Vance in 2028 GOP primary race
Marco Rubio rises to 27%4%
A new Emerson College poll revealed Rubio closing the gap with Vice President J.D. Vance, signaling a competitive primary and causing Rubio's market price to rise while Vance's declined.
JD Vance stakes claim for 2028 Republican nomination ahead of midterms
J.D. Vance dips to 34%3%
Vance's active campaigning and strong polling positioned him as the leading GOP candidate, maintaining his market lead despite ongoing uncertainty.
Vance staked claim for 2028 Republican nomination amid midterms
JD Vance reaffirmed his position as the presumptive nominee at the Conservative Political Action Conference, with polls showing him at 40% support compared to Rubio's 20%.
Thomas Massie Files to Run for Office in 2028 After Primary Loss
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
Massie filed paperwork to run for his House seat after a loss, briefly lifting his visibility and nudging his market price from 1 % to 3 % in late May 2026.
Rep. Thomas Massie files statement of candidacy for 2028 House race
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
Massie filed a statement of candidacy for the 2028 House race, reviving his national profile and pushing his market price from 1 % in early February 2026 to 3 % by the end of May 2026.
J.D. Vance publicly stakes claim for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance dips to 34%3%
Vance publicly asserted his position as the likely 2028 nominee, receiving endorsements from key figures like Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin, reinforcing market confidence in his nomination.
Massie files to run for office after primary loss
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
Massie filed a statement of candidacy for a possible 2028 run after losing his primary, raising his market odds from 1 % to 3 % by month’s end.
Thomas Massie files paperwork for 2028 election after primary loss
Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%
After losing a Trump-backed primary, Rep. Thomas Massie filed to run again in 2028, signaling continued political ambitions and causing a slight increase in his market odds.
JD Vance's approval rating plunges to historic low amid political challenges
J.D. Vance plunges to 30%21%
Vice President JD Vance experienced a significant drop in approval ratings, reflecting political headwinds and contributing to his decline in market support for the 2028 nomination.
Marco Rubio Arrives in India to Secure Energy Partnerships and Repair Ties
Marco Rubio rises to 25%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarked on a high-profile four-day state visit to India to position the U.S. as a key energy supplier, elevating his international stature.
Tulsi Gabbard resigns as Director of National Intelligence citing husband's cancer
Tulsi Gabbard dips to 1%1%
Gabbard's resignation from a high-profile role due to personal reasons led to a collapse in her nomination market price, reflecting diminished political momentum.
Tucker Carlson’s odds rise to 7% amid speculation of 2028 GOP nomination run
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Carlson’s comments about the burdens of presidency and joking about running led to a market price increase from 5% to 7%, reflecting growing speculation about his potential candidacy.
Donald Trump Jr. marries Bettina Anderson in Bahamas ceremony
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.’s high‑profile wedding dominated the news cycle and coincided with his market price dropping from a high of 35 % in July 2025 to 3 % by May 2026 as attention shifted away from his political prospects.
Donald Trump Jr. marries Bettina Anderson in private Florida ceremony
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 1%2%
Donald Trump Jr.'s May 2026 wedding was a significant personal event, but his political prospects for 2028 diminished as he focused on private and business matters, reflected in his market price decline.
JD Vance announces expecting fourth child, highlighting family values
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The announcement of JD Vance and his wife expecting their fourth child reinforced his family-oriented image, positively influencing his market support.
Donald Trump Jr. gains in polls among young Republican voters for 2028 nomination
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 7%4%
Polls showed Trump Jr. gaining popularity especially among younger Republicans, increasing his market price from 3% to 7%, signaling rising interest in his potential candidacy despite his own mixed statements.
Poll shows JD Vance and Marco Rubio as top contenders for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Recent polling data indicated Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner with Marco Rubio closing the gap, highlighting a competitive race between the two for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Donald Trump Jr. surges in 2028 Republican primary polls
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 1%34%
Donald Trump Jr. gained significant support in polls for the 2028 Republican nomination, closing the gap with frontrunners and raising speculation about a potential run despite his public denials.
Donald Trump publicly names Rubio and Vance as top 2028 GOP contenders
President Trump publicly acknowledged Marco Rubio and JD Vance as leading contenders for the 2028 Republican nomination, reinforcing their status and influencing market perceptions.
Poll shows JD Vance and Marco Rubio as top 2028 GOP contenders
J.D. Vance jumps to 46%10%
Polling data indicated Vice President JD Vance leading with 39.5% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20.8% as the leading potential Republican nominees for 2028, highlighting a tightening race between the two.
JD Vance denies running for president in 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 34%3%
JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president, which may have contributed to a slight decline in his market price from 37% to 34%, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy despite ongoing speculation.
Thomas Massie hints at 2028 presidential bid after losing House primary
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
After losing his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, Massie hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run during his concession speech, energizing his supporters and causing a slight market uptick from 1% to 2%.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
Usha Vance announced she is expecting the couple's fourth child, a personal development that brought positive attention to JD Vance's family image. This announcement coincided with a slight uptick in Vance's market price from 37% to 39%.
Vice President J.D. Vance briefs media on anti-fraud initiatives
J.D. Vance drops to 31%5%
Vance's active role in policy and media engagements maintained his visibility and market support as a leading 2028 Republican nominee contender.
Ron DeSantis holds RON PAC fundraiser, signaling 2028 ambitions
Ron DeSantis held a fundraiser for his 'Restor Our Nation' PAC, raising significant campaign funds and signaling his intent to remain a key GOP figure, though his market odds remained low.
Ron DeSantis to deliver keynote at New York Republican Party gala, signaling 2028 ambitions
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%2%
DeSantis was slated to deliver the keynote address at the New York Republican Party’s annual gala, signaling his ongoing interest in a 2028 presidential run and raising his profile among GOP insiders despite mixed polling.
Ron DeSantis fundraising and PAC activity signal 2028 presidential preparations
Ron DeSantis rises to 9%2%
DeSantis's RON PAC raised nearly $2 million in the 2025-2026 cycle, with significant fundraising events near Mar-a-Lago, indicating active preparation for a 2028 presidential campaign despite internal GOP resistance.
Ron DeSantis lays groundwork for 2028 presidential run with New York GOP gala keynote
Ron DeSantis jumps to 8%5%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis delivered the keynote address at the New York Republican Party’s annual gala, signaling his intention to remain a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination despite earlier setbacks.
Marco Rubio gains momentum with viral White House press briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a well-received White House press briefing and shared viral videos projecting a presidential image, sparking speculation about a 2028 presidential run and boosting his market odds.
Ron DeSantis signals possible 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis jumps to 11%8%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attended key events and highlighted his achievements, signaling preparation for a 2028 presidential campaign despite trailing frontrunners in polls.
Ron DeSantis headlines New York Republican Party gala, signaling 2028 ambitions
DeSantis's keynote at the New York Republican Party gala was seen as a move to raise his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run.
Rubio posts campaign‑style video, fueling 2028 speculation
Marco Rubio jumps to 35%13%
Rubio released a campaign‑style video that sparked speculation about a 2028 run; traders lifted his odds from 22 % (2026‑02‑23) to 35 % (2026‑05‑19).
Marco Rubio becomes surprise front-runner in 2028 betting markets
Marco Rubio surges to 55%41%
Marco Rubio's increased visibility in foreign policy and viral media appearances led to a surge in his odds on prediction markets, briefly overtaking JD Vance as the favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination.
Thomas Massie loses Kentucky primary to Trump-backed challenger
Thomas Massie rises to 3%1%
Massie's defeat in the primary, driven by Trump's opposition and heavy spending by pro-Israel groups, marked a significant setback, though he filed to run again in 2028.
Marco Rubio criticizes International Criminal Court and vows to dismantle it
Marco Rubio rises to 18%3%
Rubio escalated the Trump administration's campaign against the ICC, asserting American sovereignty and increasing his profile in foreign policy debates.
Marco Rubio gains popularity with viral White House press briefing video
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Rubio's viral video from a White House press briefing boosted his public profile and contributed to his rising support in the 2028 Republican nomination race.
Marco Rubio publicly endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
Rubio publicly expressed support for Vance's potential 2028 run, signaling party consolidation and boosting Rubio's own prospects as a possible running mate or alternative, causing a market price surge.
Republican Party finalizes early‑state primary calendar, includes Iowa and New Hampshire
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The confirmation of Iowa and New Hampshire as early primary states gave Vance a strategic advantage due to Turning Point’s grassroots operations there, reinforcing his market lead while other candidates lost ground.
Marco Rubio’s poll surge to 28 % after Olympic delegation appearance
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio’s visibility as part of the Olympic delegation sparked a late‑stage poll surge, lifting his market price from 21 % to 25 % by May 17.
Poll finds majority of Americans think Donald Trump is not mentally fit for presidency
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
A May 2026 poll showed a majority of Americans doubted Trump's mental fitness for office, shrinking his market price from mid‑teens in mid‑2025 to 3 % by May 2026.
Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance announce fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The vice president and second lady announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The personal news generated a wave of positive coverage and a surge in Vance’s favorability, lifting his market price from 39 % on 2026‑05‑01 to 36 % on 2026‑05‑16 as voters saw a relatable, family‑oriented candidate.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced plans for a special legislative session to redraw congressional districts, a move seen as a strategic political effort that increased his visibility and market price as a potential presidential nominee.
Poll shows Ron DeSantis trailing JD Vance and Marco Rubio for 2028 Republican nomination
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
A poll placed DeSantis third behind Rubio and Vance, reflecting his lower market odds and signaling his less certain candidacy for 2028.
Poll shows Donald Trump Jr. closing gap with JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Donald Trump Jr. jumps to 13%10%
Polling data revealed Donald Trump Jr. gaining support among Republican voters, narrowing the gap with Vice President JD Vance. This surge raised speculation about Trump Jr.'s potential candidacy and affected market odds, though he denied serious plans to run.
Marco Rubio’s White House press briefing appearance sparks 2028 presidential buzz
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%5%
Marco Rubio’s viral and well-received White House press briefing appearance increased his national profile and speculation about a 2028 presidential run, contributing to a surge in his market odds.
Donald Trump publicly asks crowd to cheer for JD Vance or Marco Rubio for 2028 ticket
President Donald Trump engaged the audience to show support for either JD Vance or Marco Rubio as potential 2028 Republican nominees, highlighting their prominence and influencing market interest in both candidates.
Vice President JD Vance attacked at home, detained suspect charged
A man broke windows at Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home and was detained and charged, raising security concerns but also drawing public sympathy and support for Vance, which may have influenced his market price.
Donald Trump asks audience to cheer for JD Vance or Marco Rubio for 2028 ticket
J.D. Vance rises to 35%2%
Trump publicly solicited audience support for either JD Vance or Marco Rubio as the 2028 Republican nominee, reinforcing their frontrunner status and influencing market prices.
President Trump promotes idea of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio 2028 ticket
President Donald Trump publicly suggested that Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong presidential ticket in 2028, reinforcing their status as leading contenders and influencing market perceptions.
Marco Rubio leads in new poll for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
A national poll by AtlasIntel showed Marco Rubio leading with 45.4% support among Republican respondents for the 2028 nomination, ahead of J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis, indicating Rubio’s rising favorability and market momentum.
Marco Rubio's steady campaign efforts raise his nomination chances
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio's consistent campaigning and endorsements helped increase his market price, reflecting growing support within the Republican base.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's China Visit and Tracksuit Photo Go Viral
Secretary of State Marco Rubio accompanied President Trump on a high-stakes summit in Beijing, where his viral moments and diplomatic entry boosted his public profile.
Poll shows Marco Rubio surging ahead of JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
A national survey from Atlas Intel showed Rubio leading with 45% support, ahead of Vance at 29%, marking a significant momentum shift in Rubio's favor and impacting market perceptions.
Marco Rubio leads in latest 2028 Republican primary poll with 45.4% support
Marco Rubio dips to 23%2%
Latest polling data confirmed Rubio's commanding lead in the Republican primary field, further boosting his market price and signaling a shift in party support away from JD Vance.
President Trump praises Vance and Rubio as a 'perfect ticket' but withholds endorsement
At a White House event, Trump called Vance and Rubio a 'perfect ticket' for 2028 but explicitly withheld his endorsement, maintaining uncertainty about the party's future leadership and influencing market perceptions.
Marco Rubio maintains elevated support in Republican nomination race
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Marco Rubio's price remained high after a period of gains, reflecting sustained market confidence in his potential as a 2028 nominee amid shifting dynamics in the Republican field.
Man arrested for vandalism at JD Vance’s Ohio home
A man broke windows and damaged property at Vice President JD Vance’s residence, leading to his detention and highlighting security concerns around Vance, which may have affected public perception and market confidence.
Turning Point USA mobilizes grassroots support for JD Vance in early primary states
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Following Erika Kirk's endorsement, Turning Point USA expanded its operations in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada to support Vance, boosting his campaign infrastructure and market confidence in his nomination chances.
JD Vance and wife announce expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
The announcement of Vance’s growing family positively influenced his public image as a family-oriented conservative, supporting his appeal to traditional Republican voters.
Tucker Carlson's market price rises amid conservative media attention
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Tucker Carlson's price increased slightly as he remained a prominent conservative media figure despite controversies and internal party conflicts, reflecting a modest boost in his perceived viability as a nominee.
Marco Rubio's market price rises amid speculation of VP role in 2028
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%5%
Rubio's market price increased to 25% in May 2026, likely due to speculation about him being a potential vice presidential pick alongside Vance, boosting his perceived chances.
Marco Rubio's rising support in GOP base boosts 2028 nomination chances
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%5%
Marco Rubio's support increased among Trump’s core base, reflected in rising market prices, signaling his growing viability as a 2028 candidate.
Donald Trump Jr. gains popularity among young voters as potential 2028 candidate
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 1%34%
Polls showed a significant increase in support for Donald Trump Jr. among young Republican voters, raising his profile as a dark horse candidate for the 2028 GOP nomination despite his denial of running.
Marco Rubio surges in 2028 Republican nomination betting markets
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds for the 2028 GOP nomination rose significantly due to increased visibility in foreign policy and public appearances, narrowing the gap with JD Vance.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Trump’s foreign policy quarterback on Venezuela
Marco Rubio rises to 23%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a leading role in explaining and managing the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions in Venezuela, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, which increased his visibility and market support as a potential nominee.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV, fueling 2028 presidential buzz
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Rubio's high-profile diplomatic engagements, including meeting the Pope, increased his stature within the GOP and speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, contributing to a rise in his market price.
Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV amid tense US-Vatican relations
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%6%
Rubio's high-profile meeting with the Pope highlighted his diplomatic credentials and boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reflected in rising market prices.
Marco Rubio releases campaign-style video fueling 2028 run speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 26%1%
Rubio's campaign-style video articulating a hopeful vision for America sparked increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reinforcing his rising momentum in the nomination race.
JD Vance's nomination odds decline amid shifting GOP dynamics
J.D. Vance drops to 34%5%
JD Vance's market price declined as other candidates gained attention and internal party dynamics evolved, reflecting uncertainty about his eventual nomination.
Marco Rubio becomes surprise front-runner in 2028 presidential betting market
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio's increased visibility as Secretary of State and his role in foreign policy boosted his standing, leading to a surge in prediction market odds and speculation about a 2028 presidential run, with Rubio briefly overtaking Vance on some platforms.
Marco Rubio gains visibility with White House press room address and viral video
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio’s delivery of a well-received address from the White House press room, which he shared as a viral video, increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and boosted his market odds from 14% to 27%.
New Poll Shows Marco Rubio Leading J.D. Vance in 2028 Republican Primary Matchup
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
A new national survey showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio commanding 45.4% of Republican support, leading Vice President J.D. Vance and boosting Rubio's market standing.
Marco Rubio fuels 2028 presidential speculation with viral White House briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%9%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s viral and well-received White House press briefing appearance increased his visibility and sparked speculation about a 2028 presidential run, boosting his polling numbers.
Marco Rubio's public White House press briefing sparks 2028 run speculation
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Marco Rubio's well-received White House press briefing and viral video appearances projecting a presidential image sparked speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price significantly.
Trump Jr. overtakes DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 3%1%
An article in the Miami Times reported that Donald Trump Jr. had moved ahead of DeSantis in prediction‑market odds for the 2028 GOP nomination. The coverage coincided with a modest rise in Trump Jr.’s price from 2 % to 3 % and a corresponding stagnation of DeSantis’s odds.
Marco Rubio fuels speculation of 2028 presidential campaign with White House press briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%9%
Marco Rubio's well-received White House press briefing and viral social media videos sparked widespread speculation about his 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility and market support.
Marco Rubio fuels speculation about 2028 presidential campaign with White House press conference
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Marco Rubio's confident and humorous performance at a White House press briefing, including viral videos shared by influential conservatives, sparked renewed speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and boosted his polling numbers.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Republican nomination for Ohio governor, signaling shift in political focus
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Ramaswamy's victory in the Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary marked a pivot from presidential ambitions to state-level leadership, leading to a sharp decline in his 2028 presidential nomination market odds.
Marco Rubio gains ground against JD Vance with strong diplomatic performance
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%7%
Marco Rubio's effective handling of foreign policy issues and high-profile diplomatic engagements boosted his public image and market odds, contributing to his rise against JD Vance.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary
Ramaswamy secured the GOP nomination for Ohio governor, solidifying his political standing and briefly raising his market price before it declined later.
Marco Rubio sparks 2028 campaign speculation with White House press conference
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%8%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s confident and humorous White House press conference was widely praised, boosting his image as a presidential contender and increasing his market support.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary
Ramaswamy secured the Republican nomination for Ohio governor in May 2026, solidifying his focus on state politics and reducing his chances for the 2028 presidential nomination.
Rubio’s Press‑Room Performance Sparks #Rubio2028 Trend
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%6%
Rubio’s strong performance in a White House press briefing (handling Iran, fuel prices and Cuba questions) was highlighted by a trending #Rubio2028 hashtag. The media buzz drove his market price from 20 % to 26 % in early May 2026.
Marco Rubio sparks 2028 presidential speculation with White House press briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 19%11%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio gained significant attention and speculation about a 2028 presidential run after delivering a well-received White House press briefing, boosting his popularity and market odds.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Republican nomination for Ohio governor
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy decisively won the Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary with over 80% of the vote, shifting his political focus away from the 2028 presidential nomination and causing his market odds to plummet.
Marco Rubio's market price rises amid endorsements and political activity
Marco Rubio rises to 24%3%
Marco Rubio's increasing market price reflects growing endorsements and his active role in the Republican Party, positioning him as a viable nominee candidate.
Tucker Carlson’s show drops from primetime to late night
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Network scheduling changes reduced Carlson’s visibility, contributing to a slight rise in his price from 5% to 6% as the market adjusted to his diminished campaign relevance.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
The announcement of the Vance family's fourth child humanized JD Vance and may have positively influenced his public image and market support by highlighting family values important to Republican voters.
Turning Point USA announces Kid Rock to headline counterprogrammed Super Bowl halftime show
The event highlighted the cultural influence of conservative groups aligned with candidates like Vance, reflecting ongoing GOP base mobilization efforts.
Marco Rubio rises as a leading 2028 Republican contender
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's increased visibility in foreign policy and diplomatic successes elevated his standing, leading to a surge in prediction market odds and speculation about a 2028 presidential run.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announces pregnancy, boosting pro-family image
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Leavitt’s pregnancy announcement alongside the Vance family’s growing size highlighted the administration’s pro-family stance, indirectly supporting Vance’s image as a family-oriented candidate.
Ron DeSantis Crisscrosses Country and Lays Groundwork for 2028 Presidential Campaign
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%3%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stepped up national outreach efforts, attending the Milken Institute global conference and preparing to keynote the New York Republican Party gala, signaling a likely 2028 bid.
Marco Rubio Sparks 2028 Presidential Buzz with Viral White House Briefing Appearance
Marco Rubio rises to 23%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio filled in at the White House press briefing, delivering a hopeful vision for America that went viral and fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, boosting his market odds.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signals possible 2028 presidential run at Milken Institute conference
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%2%
Ron DeSantis attended the Milken Institute global conference and delivered a keynote at the New York Republican Party gala, signaling growing national ambitions and laying groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential campaign. His public remarks about his achievements in Florida and openness to running increased speculation about his candidacy, though he remained behind frontrunners in polls.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces Project Freedom to rescue civilians from Gulf
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio's leadership in humanitarian and foreign policy efforts enhanced his stature within the party and among voters concerned with international affairs.
Ron DeSantis keeps door open for 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid, highlighting his accomplishments and suggesting he has 'a lot of runway' for a future campaign, though he has not formally declared.
Ron DeSantis lays groundwork for 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attended high-profile events and fundraisers, signaling preparation for a 2028 presidential campaign, which briefly raised his market odds before settling lower.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary, signaling shift from 2028 presidential ambitions
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Ramaswamy's decisive victory in the Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary, endorsed by Trump and the Ohio GOP, indicated a move away from a 2028 presidential run, causing his nomination odds to plummet.
Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary, signaling shift from 2028 presidential ambitions
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Ramaswamy's victory in the Ohio GOP gubernatorial primary indicated a move away from a 2028 presidential run, causing his market odds to plummet sharply.
Ron DeSantis signals 2028 presidential ambitions with high-profile appearances
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis increased his national profile by speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference and the New York Republican Party gala, signaling his intent to run for president in 2028 despite low polling numbers.
Marco Rubio's White House press briefing sparks 2028 presidential buzz
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%9%
Marco Rubio filled in at the White House press briefing, delivering a message that went viral and boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential run. His polished performance and viral videos increased his popularity and market odds significantly.
Ron DeSantis signals possible 2028 presidential run with national appearances
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%2%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attended high-profile events including the Milken Institute global conference and the New York Republican Party gala, signaling growing national ambitions and laying groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential campaign, though his polling remains behind frontrunners.
Ron DeSantis signals potential 2028 presidential run with national appearances
Ron DeSantis jumps to 8%5%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis increased his national profile by attending major events and delivering speeches, signaling a likely 2028 presidential bid despite trailing frontrunners in polls. This activity caused a modest rise in his market odds.
Ron DeSantis hints at 2028 presidential run, touts Florida achievements
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid, highlighting his accomplishments in Florida and signaling his intent to remain a contender despite earlier setbacks.
Ron DeSantis keeps the door open for a 2028 presidential run
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid, delivering a campaign-like pitch and highlighting his accomplishments, though his polling remained low compared to frontrunners.
Ron DeSantis hints at possible 2028 presidential run amid low polling
Ron DeSantis jumps to 11%8%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid, highlighting his accomplishments and potential, despite trailing in polls and market odds.
Ron DeSantis keeps door open for 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%2%
Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid during a public appearance, highlighting his accomplishments as Florida governor and signaling ongoing national ambitions despite trailing frontrunners in polls.
Marco Rubio leads GOP primary poll by a wide margin over JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%6%
An AtlasIntel poll showed Rubio leading Vance 45.4% to 29.6%, solidifying Rubio's position as the frontrunner and reflecting his growing momentum in the Republican primary race.
DeSantis keeps the door open for a 2028 presidential run
DeSantis said he was keeping the door open for a 2028 run; his market price steadied at 2 % after earlier collapse.
Donald Trump Jr. surpasses Ron DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 6%3%
Prediction markets showed Donald Trump Jr. overtaking Ron DeSantis as a more favored candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting growing support among Trump loyalists and the MAGA base, causing DeSantis's odds to decline further.
Donald Trump Jr. leads Ron DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr. surpassed Ron DeSantis in prediction markets as a better bet to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting shifting party dynamics and causing DeSantis's market price to fall further.
Vance appears at Milan Winter Olympics opening, receives mixed reactions
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
Vance’s high‑visibility diplomatic appearance at the Olympics kept him in the news cycle, maintaining his market momentum despite a slight dip earlier in the month.
Donald Trump Jr. gains ground over Ron DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Prediction markets showed Donald Trump Jr. surpassing Ron DeSantis in odds for the 2028 nomination, reflecting growing support for Trump Jr. and further decline for DeSantis.
Donald Trump Jr. overtakes Ron DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr. surpassed Ron DeSantis in prediction markets as a better bet to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting shifting party dynamics and causing DeSantis's market price to fall further.
Vance’s market price steadies at 39 % after a week of Olympic coverage
Continued media coverage of Vance’s Olympic activities kept his price stable, while other candidates saw further declines, cementing his position as the market leader.
Ted Cruz visits Iowa, fueling 2028 presidential bid speculation
Ted Cruz’s visit to Iowa, a key early primary state, sparked speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, slightly increasing his visibility and market interest.
Marco Rubio sparks speculation about 2028 presidential candidacy with White House press briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a well-received White House press briefing and shared viral videos projecting a presidential image, fueling speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run and boosting his market odds from 14% to around 27%.
Marco Rubio appointed interim National Security Advisor
Marco Rubio jumps to 21%7%
Rubio's appointment to a key national security role increased his visibility and market price, reflecting improved prospects for the 2028 nomination.
Donald Trump Jr. surges in 2028 GOP nomination polls, overtaking Ron DeSantis
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.'s rising popularity among Republican voters and Trump loyalists boosted his nomination odds, surpassing DeSantis, reflecting shifting dynamics within the GOP base.
Donald Trump Jr. surpasses Ron DeSantis in 2028 GOP nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr. gained momentum in prediction markets, overtaking Ron DeSantis as a more favored candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting growing support among Trump loyalists and the MAGA base.
Ron DeSantis gears up for 2028 presidential run with fundraising and rebranding efforts
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
Despite low market odds, Ron DeSantis has been actively fundraising through his RON PAC and attempting to rebrand himself as a more likable candidate. However, he faces resistance within the Florida GOP and skepticism nationally, contributing to his declining market price.
Ron DeSantis keeps door open for 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid, highlighting his accomplishments and leaving speculation about his candidacy alive despite low market odds.
Marco Rubio delivers well-received White House press briefing, fueling 2028 speculation
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio filled in for the White House press secretary, delivering a well-received briefing that was widely shared and praised, sparking speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run and boosting his market odds.
Marco Rubio gains momentum with viral White House press briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's well-received White House press briefing and viral video boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, leading to a surge in his market odds and polling numbers.
Marco Rubio gains national polling support, nearly ties with JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio surges to 35%19%
National polls from Emerson College and AtlasIntel showed Rubio closing in on Vance, with some surveys indicating a near tie, signaling a competitive two-man race for the nomination.
Marco Rubio gains popularity with viral White House press briefing and social media campaign
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%6%
Rubio's well-received White House press briefing and viral videos boosted his public image and support among conservatives, contributing to his rising market odds and polling numbers.
Marco Rubio's 2028 GOP nomination odds surge ahead of JD Vance on prediction markets
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio's increased visibility in foreign policy and diplomatic successes elevated his standing, leading to a surge in his 2028 Republican nomination odds from 14% to 27%, narrowing the gap with JD Vance.
Ron DeSantis lays groundwork for 2028 presidential run at Milken Institute conference
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%2%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attended the Milken Institute global conference and delivered a keynote at the New York Republican Party gala, signaling his openness to a 2028 presidential bid and causing a modest rise in his market odds.
Ron DeSantis signals possible 2028 presidential run, touts Florida achievements
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis hinted at a 2028 presidential bid, highlighting his accomplishments and fundraising efforts, though his market odds declined amid competition.
Tucker Carlson’s 2028 presidential odds peak amid GOP break and Iran war criticism
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Tucker Carlson’s odds for the 2028 Republican nomination rose to a peak after he publicly broke with the GOP, criticized the Iran war, and hinted at involvement in the 2028 election, stirring speculation despite his denials of running.
Marco Rubio surges in New Hampshire GOP primary poll, closing gap with JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio surged from 7% to 26% in New Hampshire's GOP primary poll, dramatically closing the gap with JD Vance and boosting his market odds significantly.
Vance’s campaign announces fourth child due in July, boosting personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 44%1%
The announcement of a new child humanized Vance and resonated with family‑oriented voters, contributing to a modest price uptick.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid Republican discord
Turning Point USA continued to back JD Vance as a leading Republican candidate despite internal party tensions and debates over bigotry and purity tests. This support helped stabilize Vance's market price around 39%.
Tucker Carlson’s nomination odds slightly improve amid conservative media attention
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%3%
Carlson’s market price rose modestly to 6% as he maintained a media presence and defended his positions despite criticism, reflecting a small but stable support base.
Marco Rubio’s 2028 nomination chances surge in recent polls
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%13%
Marco Rubio’s popularity surged in early 2026 polls, closing the gap with J.D. Vance and increasing speculation about a competitive 2028 GOP primary. This polling momentum was reflected in rising market prices for Rubio.
Florida Legislature approves new congressional map favoring GOP
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%1%
The new Florida congressional map, supported by Governor DeSantis, aimed to increase Republican seats, impacting DeSantis' political influence and market perception.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative party discord
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Turning Point USA publicly reiterated its backing of Vance despite internal Republican tensions, reinforcing his frontrunner status and stabilizing his market price amid party factionalism.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
The announcement of the Vance family's fourth child brought positive media attention to JD Vance, reinforcing his family-oriented image and potentially supporting his candidacy.
Speculation grows that Tucker Carlson may run for president in 2028
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%2%
Analysts and commentators speculated that Tucker Carlson was positioning himself for a 2028 presidential run, causing a temporary rise in his nomination odds.
Tucker Carlson expresses regret over Trump support, fueling 2028 run speculation
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson publicly apologized for his past support of Trump and criticized the Iran war, leading analysts to predict a potential 2028 presidential run, which modestly increased his market odds.
Marco Rubio sparks speculation about 2028 presidential candidacy
Marco Rubio surges to 28%21%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's public appearances and viral videos projecting a presidential image sparked speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price significantly.
Tucker Carlson emerges as potential 2028 GOP nominee amid GOP break
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Tucker Carlson announced he was leaving the Republican Party, sparking speculation about a possible independent or alternative 2028 presidential run, which briefly increased his nomination odds.
President Trump publicly discusses Vance-Rubio 2028 ticket
At a White House event, President Trump asked attendees to cheer for JD Vance or Marco Rubio, calling them a 'dream team' for 2028, fueling speculation about their joint ticket and influencing market prices.
JD Vance praises Trump administration's anti-abortion record at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements on abortion restrictions, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing the pro-life base, which supported his market position.
JD Vance's polling support declines amid growing GOP uncertainty
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
Polling and market data showed a decline in Vance's support as Republican voters weighed alternatives, causing his market price to fall further.
White House insiders acknowledge Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender
Marco Rubio rises to 22%2%
Reports emerged that President Trump's close confidantes increasingly view Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong 2028 presidential contender due to his adept handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy, boosting his market perception.
Marco Rubio gains recognition as a rising GOP contender for 2028 nomination
Marco Rubio rises to 24%2%
Marco Rubio's growing influence and alignment with Trumpism increased his standing as a serious contender, reflected in rising support within the party and among donors.
JD Vance's nomination chances decline amid growing GOP uncertainty
J.D. Vance dips to 38%1%
Polling and market data showed a decline in Vance's odds, reflecting an unsettled Republican electorate still weighing options for 2028.
Marco Rubio surges past JD Vance as 2028 Republican frontrunner in polls
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
New polling showed Marco Rubio overtaking JD Vance as the favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting Rubio's growing momentum and Vance's declining support.
J.D. Vance's Net Favorability Ratings Dip Into the Red
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
A new national poll showed Vice President J.D. Vance's unfavorability rating hitting a record high of 41.9%, raising questions about his viability for the 2028 presidential nomination.
J.D. Vance's approval ratings dip into negative territory
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Polls showed Vice President J.D. Vance's net favorability turning negative due to rising unfavorability ratings, reflecting public dissatisfaction and contributing to his declining odds in the nomination market.
JD Vance faces political challenges amid Iran deal and GOP criticism
J.D. Vance dips to 36%2%
JD Vance encountered setbacks due to criticism over his role in the Iran peace deal and internal GOP disputes, causing some erosion in his lead for the 2028 nomination.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 40%1%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong organizational support and mobilization behind Vance, boosting his market price.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw congressional districts
DeSantis' move to influence redistricting in Florida aimed to strengthen GOP control, indirectly affecting his political capital and nomination prospects.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
Usha Vance announced she is pregnant with the couple's fourth child, a personal milestone that brought positive attention to JD Vance's family image and may have influenced market sentiment.
JD Vance’s team deletes social media post referring to ‘Armenian genocide’
J.D. Vance dips to 38%1%
Vance’s team removed a social media post using the term 'Armenian genocide,' a sensitive diplomatic issue, reflecting caution in foreign policy messaging and causing minor market uncertainty.
Marco Rubio’s diplomatic efforts on Greenland and Venezuela maintain his profile
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s meetings with Danish officials about Greenland and his role in Venezuela policy kept him relevant in the nomination race, supporting a modest increase in his market price.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map
The decision favored Democrats, prompting Republican strategists to double‑down on the Vance candidacy as the party’s best chance to win national elections, keeping Vance’s price steady near 39% while others fell.
Vice President J.D. Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid antisemitism debate
Vance publicly defended his wife against racist attacks and criticized figures like Nick Fuentes and Jen Psaki, positioning himself as a leader against bigotry while navigating party tensions. This stance may have helped stabilize his support despite ongoing controversies.
Man detained after breaking windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home
J.D. Vance rises to 42%2%
A security incident at Vance’s residence brought media attention and sympathy, highlighting the risks faced by prominent politicians and possibly increasing public support.
Marco Rubio mediates peace talks between Israel and Lebanon
Marco Rubio rises to 26%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio played a key role in mediating peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, enhancing his reputation as a skilled diplomat. This increased his visibility and favorability among Republican voters, leading to a surge in his market support for the 2028 nomination.
Conservative feud erupts at Turning Point USA conference over MAGA movement's future
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, prominent conservatives including Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashed over the direction of the MAGA movement, with Shapiro criticizing Carlson for associating with far-right figures. This public discord highlighted divisions within the Republican base, impacting perceptions of candidates aligned with these factions.
Vance’s anti‑fraud task force visits Maine ahead of June primary
J.D. Vance jumps to 42%6%
A campaign stop in Maine emphasizing Vance’s anti‑fraud agenda helped solidify his standing in a key early‑state market, giving his price a slight uptick while competitors received less attention.
April YouGov poll shows Vance slipping five points
J.D. Vance dips to 39%2%
A YouGov poll in early April showed Vance’s support slipping five points, moving his market price from 41 % to 39 % by mid‑April.
Vice President JD Vance leads negotiations with Iranian officials
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
Vance's active role in high-profile negotiations with Iran initially supported his frontrunner status, reflected in his market price near 37%, but subsequent polling showed declining support.
Vice President J.D. Vance Fumbles High-Profile Diplomatic Talks in Islamabad
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance's diplomatic mission to Islamabad to negotiate with Iranian representatives fell flat, drawing widespread criticism and hurting his standing as the clear 2028 frontrunner.
YouGov poll shows further decline in JD Vance's GOP support
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
Another YouGov poll indicated a continued decline in enthusiasm for Vance among Republican voters, reflected in market price drops.
JD Vance’s approval rating plunges to historic low, dragging down his nomination chances
J.D. Vance drops to 37%13%
Polling data revealed a sharp decline in JD Vance's approval rating, marking him as the least popular vice president at this stage historically, which corresponded with a drop in his market price for the nomination.
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
The announcement of JD Vance expecting a fourth child humanized the candidate and was positively received, stabilizing his market price around 39%.
Vice President JD Vance and wife announce pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
The announcement of Vance's growing family humanized him and reinforced his pro-family image, which is a key theme in his political messaging, positively impacting his market price.
Former Gov. Youngkin hints at political comeback on Fox News
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s interview on Fox News hinting at a future political role sparked a brief uptick before his odds collapsed to 1 % as he left office.
Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin hints at political return
Youngkin's statements about having 'more to give' after leaving office fueled speculation about a future run, though his market support remained minimal.
Tucker Carlson announces departure from Republican Party, fueling 2028 speculation
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%3%
Tucker Carlson's public break with the GOP and criticism of the party's loyalty sparked speculation about his potential independent involvement in the 2028 election, affecting his market odds despite his denial of a presidential run.
Vance’s price rebounds after successful diplomatic stop in Italy
J.D. Vance rises to 50%4%
A positive diplomatic meeting in Italy during the Olympics led to a short‑term rebound in Vance’s price from 46 % to 50 % on April 6, showing the market’s responsiveness to foreign‑policy visibility.
Donald Trump praises J.D. Vance's physical transformation
J.D. Vance rises to 39%2%
President Trump publicly complimented Vice President J.D. Vance's recent weight loss and appearance, boosting Vance's public image and briefly supporting his frontrunner status in the 2028 nomination market.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance’s public appearance with popular influencer Jake Paul at a high-profile Olympic event increased his visibility among younger and broader audiences, slightly boosting his market perception.
CPAC straw poll shows J.D. Vance leads with 53%, Rubio surges to 35%
At the 2026 CPAC, Vice President J.D. Vance won the straw poll with 53% support, while Marco Rubio surged to 35%, indicating a competitive two-candidate race and a decline in support for other contenders like DeSantis and Trump Jr.
CPAC straw poll shows JD Vance leads with 53%, Rubio second with 35%
The CPAC straw poll indicated strong support for JD Vance and a significant rise for Marco Rubio, consolidating their positions as the leading contenders for the 2028 Republican nomination.
Vice President JD Vance wins 2026 CPAC presidential straw poll
JD Vance topped the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll with 53% support, solidifying his position as the leading GOP candidate for 2028 and maintaining his market dominance.
Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
At CPAC, Vance won the straw poll with 53 % of votes, pushing his market price down slightly from 42 % to 39 % as the poll showed stronger competition.
J.D. Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 53%15%
At CPAC, Vance won 53% of the straw poll votes among nearly 1,600 attendees, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his market probability significantly.
JD Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 42%3%
Vance's leading position in the influential CPAC straw poll reinforced his frontrunner status among conservative activists, positively impacting his market price.
Marco Rubio gains ground against JD Vance in 2028 race
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
Marco Rubio's strong performance in diplomatic roles and public appearances led to increased support, surpassing JD Vance in some polls and prediction markets, shifting market dynamics.
CPAC 2026 straw poll shows J.D. Vance leading with Marco Rubio rising
At the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference, J.D. Vance won the straw poll with 53% support, but Marco Rubio surged to 35%, indicating a strong two-candidate race and a decline in support for other candidates including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr.
JD Vance wins CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance's victory at CPAC confirmed his strong support among conservative Republicans, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the market.
Vice President J.D. Vance wins CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll with about 53% support, reinforcing his frontrunner status and positively influencing market perceptions of his nomination chances.
Tucker Carlson appears on primetime news panel
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%2%
A surprise appearance by Carlson on a major news program generated a brief bump in his market price from 3 % to 5 % the following day.
Tucker Carlson's market price rises slightly amid ongoing conservative media presence
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%3%
Tucker Carlson's modest price increase reflects continued media influence and conservative audience support, though his overall nomination chances remain low.
Marco Rubio’s market price surges amid speculation of supporting JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Marco Rubio’s price rose sharply as he publicly expressed support for Vance’s potential 2028 run, signaling party consolidation and boosting Rubio’s own prospects as a possible running mate or alternative.
Carlson alleges Israel‑driven migrant surge in March 2026 show
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson’s March‑25 episode spreading anti‑Israel conspiracy theories attracted criticism and lowered his perceived electability, nudging his market to 6 %.
Republicans block Democratic subpoena motion against Donald Trump Jr.
The blocking of a subpoena motion against Trump Jr. by Republicans helped stabilize his political standing, but his market price remained low due to ongoing controversies.
Ron DeSantis leaves door open for 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis jumps to 12%9%
DeSantis stated he might run for president in 2028, highlighting his accomplishments as Florida governor and framing his tenure as a model for GOP leadership, which briefly raised his profile despite low polling.
Marco Rubio mediates ceasefire between India and Pakistan
Marco Rubio jumps to 16%8%
Rubio's diplomatic role in mediating the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict ceasefire enhanced his stature as a statesman, contributing to increased market support.
Ron DeSantis declines to rule out 2028 presidential run in interview
DeSantis indicated he might run for president in 2028, citing his accomplishments and age, but did not make a formal announcement, reflecting ongoing speculation about his candidacy.
Donald Trump Jr. surges in 2028 GOP nomination polls, challenging Vance and Rubio
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 26%9%
Donald Trump Jr. gained significant support in polls, rising to second place behind Vance and surpassing other contenders, reflecting growing interest in a Trump family successor.
Ron DeSantis declines to commit to 2028 presidential run amid low poll numbers
Ron DeSantis drops to 3%5%
DeSantis publicly stated he was not thinking about a 2028 run, coinciding with his declining poll numbers and market odds, signaling diminished prospects for the nomination.
Ron DeSantis hints at 2028 presidential run in interview
Ron DeSantis did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid during a Fox News interview, suggesting he could be a strong contender if he chooses to run, though his market price remained low.
Marco Rubio's 2028 prospects improve amid speculation of run
Marco Rubio jumps to 18%5%
Rubio's increased visibility and speculation about a 2028 run led to a rise in his market price, reflecting renewed investor interest.
Donald Trump announces he will not run in 2028
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
Trump’s decision to sit out the race removed the last major competitor, causing his price to fall from 15% to 2% and consolidating Vance’s lead.
Republican gubernatorial hopeful John Rose announces run, backs Trump
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
Rose’s entry into the Tennessee governor’s race and his explicit support for Trump signaled a shift of party resources toward Trump‑aligned candidates, marginalizing other potential 2028 contenders and contributing to price declines for non‑Trump figures.
Tucker Carlson dismisses 2028 presidential run in Economist interview
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
Conservative media personality Tucker Carlson unequivocally laughed off and ruled out a potential 2028 presidential bid, keeping his market odds low and stable.
YouGov poll places Rubio at 27 % for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%9%
A YouGov poll showed Rubio at 27 % support, raising his market price from 18 % to 27 % the next day.
JD Vance calls on local officials to cooperate with immigration crackdown in Minneapolis
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
Vance's active role in immigration enforcement and public statements reinforced his image as a strong conservative leader, impacting his nomination chances.
Marco Rubio concedes 2028 GOP nomination to J.D. Vance in Vanity Fair interview
Marco Rubio drops to 22%6%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio ruled out a 2028 presidential run if Vice President J.D. Vance seeks the nomination, pledging his immediate support and causing his own odds to adjust while solidifying Vance's path.
Marco Rubio’s 2028 presidential odds surge amid Iran war involvement
Marco Rubio surges to 27%20%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s popularity and chances for the 2028 GOP nomination surged due to his prominent role in U.S. military action in Iran, which is popular among the MAGA base. This increased his market odds and polling numbers.
Marco Rubio’s chances of becoming 2028 GOP nominee quadruple in four months
Marco Rubio surges to 27%20%
Marco Rubio's market odds for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination increased significantly due to his active role in foreign policy and endorsements from key party figures, positioning him as a strong contender against JD Vance.
Marco Rubio’s popularity surges amid Iran war leadership role
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s active role in U.S. military action in Iran increased his popularity among the MAGA base, significantly boosting his chances as a 2028 Republican nominee.
Marco Rubio surges in New Hampshire GOP primary poll
Marco Rubio surges to 26%19%
Marco Rubio surged from 7% to 26% in a New Hampshire GOP primary poll, dramatically closing the gap with JD Vance and boosting his nomination prospects.
Marco Rubio surges as a potential GOP presidential candidate in 2028
CNN reported that Marco Rubio's chances of becoming the 2028 GOP nominee quadrupled in four months due to his leadership in foreign policy and popularity among the MAGA base, boosting his market odds significantly.
Republican congressman calls for treason charges against Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Rep. Max Miller publicly demanded treason prosecution for Tucker Carlson based on unsubstantiated claims of collaboration with Iran, intensifying political attacks and media attention on Carlson.
Conservative discord at Turning Point USA conference highlights GOP factionalism
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
The Turning Point USA conference revealed deep divisions within the Republican Party, with figures like Tucker Carlson and Ben Shapiro clashing over the party's direction and antisemitism issues. This discord affected perceptions of candidates like Tucker Carlson and J.D. Vance, influencing their market prices.
JD Vance’s market price declines amid political challenges and controversies
J.D. Vance drops to 37%7%
JD Vance’s price dropped from 44% to 37% in March due to political controversies including a deleted social media post about the Armenian genocide and other challenges, reflecting market uncertainty.
Polls show declining support for J.D. Vance as GOP nominee
J.D. Vance drops to 38%10%
Polling data indicated a drop in enthusiasm for Vance among Republican voters, leading to a decrease in his market price from 48% to 38%.
JD Vance praises Trump administration’s abortion policies at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration’s achievements against abortion rights, aligning with conservative social values and energizing the base, which supported his market standing.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics, boosting his profile
Marco Rubio surges to 29%15%
Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at a high‑visibility international event gave him a media bump, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price from 14% to 29% over a few weeks.
Marco Rubio surges in New Hampshire GOP primary poll, closing gap with JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 28%21%
Marco Rubio's support surged in New Hampshire GOP primary polling, narrowing the gap with JD Vance and transforming the race into a competitive two-candidate contest, impacting market odds significantly.
Marco Rubio surges ahead in GOP primary polls, challenging JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 28%18%
New polling data showed Rubio leading Vance by a significant margin, reflecting Rubio's rising stature due to his foreign policy role and growing support within the party, causing a notable market price increase for Rubio and decline for Vance.
Marco Rubio gains momentum in Republican nomination market
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%12%
Marco Rubio's price saw a significant increase following positive media coverage and his role in the administration's foreign policy, positioning him as a viable alternative.
JD Vance leads CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican nomination
JD Vance won the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll with 53% support, reinforcing his status as the early frontrunner and boosting his market price.
Marco Rubio surges in New Hampshire GOP primary poll, narrowing gap with JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 26%18%
Marco Rubio's support surged from 7% to 26% in a New Hampshire GOP primary poll, dramatically closing the gap with JD Vance and boosting Rubio's market price significantly.
AtlasIntel poll puts Rubio at 28 % support for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%9%
A National poll released by AtlasIntel showed Rubio at 28 % support, up sharply from single‑digit levels earlier in the year. The market’s price for Rubio jumped from 19 % on 2026‑01‑17 to 28 % on 2026‑03‑13, matching the poll surge.
EMC Research poll shows Marco Rubio surging to 28 % among GOP primary voters
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%10%
EMC Research released a poll showing Rubio’s support among Republican primary voters climbing to 28 % – a double‑digit jump from early‑year levels – which coincided with the market’s peak for Rubio that week.
Marco Rubio's 2028 nomination odds surge in polls and markets
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%10%
Polls and market prices showed a significant increase in Rubio's chances for the 2028 nomination, reflecting growing support and speculation about his candidacy.
Marco Rubio poll surge to 28% after Trump hints at supporting him as potential ticket mate
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%7%
A public comment by former President Trump suggesting Rubio could be a future running mate sparked a sharp rise in Rubio’s market price, reflecting renewed voter interest in his candidacy.
Poll shows Vivek Ramaswamy trailing in Ohio governor race
Vivek Ramaswamy dips to 1%2%
A poll indicated Ramaswamy was behind Democrat Amy Acton, highlighting difficulties in his gubernatorial bid and reducing his presidential nomination prospects.
Marco Rubio's nomination odds spike amid political maneuvering
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%11%
Marco Rubio's odds saw a notable increase, likely tied to his high-profile role in the administration and his positioning within the party's foreign policy agenda.
Marco Rubio receives public endorsement from Turning Point USA for JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 28%16%
Turning Point USA’s statement that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would back Vance if he runs signaled Rubio’s relevance in the 2028 race, leading to a sharp rise in his market price in mid‑March.
Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Marco Rubio gaining ground among GOP primary voters
Marco Rubio surges to 28%16%
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released in early March showed Rubio’s favorability among Republican primary voters rise to 22%, pushing his market price from 12% to 28%, indicating growing support within the party.
Marco Rubio gains traction in 2028 nomination market
Marco Rubio surges to 28%15%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a significant jump, reflecting increased speculation about his potential candidacy as the primary field began to narrow.
Marco Rubio surges in polls and prediction markets as 2028 Republican presidential contender
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%13%
Rubio's rising profile due to his diplomatic role and public appearances boosted his market price from 15% to 28%, reflecting growing confidence in his viability as a 2028 nominee.
Marco Rubio becomes favorite in prediction markets after Venezuela operation
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%14%
Marco Rubio's presidential odds surged following his role in a military operation in Venezuela, doubling his chances and increasing his visibility as a 2028 contender among donors and establishment Republicans.
Marco Rubio's support surges amid backing of JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%11%
Marco Rubio's market price jumped significantly, reflecting increased support possibly due to his public backing of JD Vance and positioning as a key Republican figure for 2028.
Marco Rubio gains momentum in GOP nomination speculation
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%12%
Rubio's market price surged following increased speculation and media coverage positioning him as a strong contender for the 2028 nomination.
Marco Rubio's nomination odds surge after Iran war involvement
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%11%
Rubio's prominent role in the Iran conflict increased speculation about his 2028 run, causing a notable rise in his market price.
JD Vance Wins CPAC Straw Poll for 2028 GOP Nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 53%1%
Vance won the CPAC straw poll with 53 % of the vote, while Rubio came in second with 35 %. The win reinforced Vance’s front‑runner status and helped sustain his market price above 50 % through the spring of 2026.
Marco Rubio surges in Republican primary polls, nearing JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%13%
New polling showed Rubio closing the gap with Vice President JD Vance in the Republican primary, reflecting shifting voter preferences and Rubio's growing appeal among older GOP voters.
Donald Trump Jr. endorses JD Vance for 2028
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.’s endorsement signaled the Trump family’s backing of Vance, further marginalizing his own candidacy and pushing his price down from 35% to 3% as voters shifted to Vance.
Man detained after breaking windows at JD Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
An attack on Vance's home by a man wielding a hammer was quickly thwarted, drawing public sympathy and highlighting security concerns around Vance, which may have influenced market perceptions of his resilience and public profile.
Marco Rubio leads U.S. foreign policy efforts on Venezuela and Latin America
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%12%
Rubio's role as a key foreign policy figure, especially on Venezuela, enhanced his profile as a potential presidential candidate, reflected in market gains.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights Republican Party divisions ahead of 2028
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
The Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference showcased significant discord within the Republican Party, with prominent conservatives like Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashing over the movement's direction. Vice President J.D. Vance was praised but also faced criticism, illustrating the challenges in uniting the party post-Trump, which influenced market perceptions and candidate support dynamics.
Marco Rubio's Senate Foreign Relations Committee briefing commitment boosts his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
Senator Marco Rubio's commitment to brief the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela war powers increased his visibility and support among Republicans, reflected in a price jump.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Secretary of State managing Venezuela crisis
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%11%
Rubio's active role in the Trump administration's foreign policy, especially regarding the Venezuela operation, increased his visibility and credibility within the Republican Party, leading to a significant rise in his market price as a potential 2028 nominee.
Vance’s market price dips amid speculation over his family’s upcoming birth
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
Speculation that Vance’s focus might shift to family matters coincided with a brief price dip from 42 % to 37 % on March 22, reflecting temporary voter uncertainty.
JD Vance faces attack at his Ohio home, suspect detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance rises to 46%4%
An attack on Vance’s residence brought national attention and sympathy, reinforcing his public profile and possibly stabilizing his market price amid political tensions.
President Trump Praises Rubio as ‘Best Secretary of State’
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%8%
President Trump publicly praised Rubio, calling him “the best Secretary of State in the history of the country.” The endorsement helped lift Rubio’s price from 15 % to 23 % in March 2026.
Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly supports Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidential bid
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%2%
Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly endorsed Tucker Carlson as a strong contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, contributing to Carlson's rise in prediction markets despite no formal campaign.
Marjorie Taylor Greene suggests Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%3%
Greene publicly floated the idea of Carlson running for president, highlighting his influence in the MAGA movement and sparking renewed speculation about his candidacy despite his previous denials.
President Trump praises Marco Rubio as best Secretary of State
President Donald Trump publicly praised Marco Rubio's performance as Secretary of State, enhancing Rubio's stature and contributing to his rise in prediction markets.
Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Tucker Carlson for 2028 GOP nomination
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%3%
Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly endorsed Tucker Carlson as a strong contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, boosting Carlson's market odds despite his lack of formal campaign and previous denials of running.
Donald Trump criticizes Tucker Carlson as 'not MAGA'
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%
Trump's public disavowal of Carlson in March 2026 contributed to Carlson's declining influence and stagnant market support.
JD Vance blames local officials for unrest during immigration crackdown in Minneapolis
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
Vance publicly criticized local officials for obstructing immigration enforcement, reinforcing his tough stance on immigration and appealing to conservative voters.
Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Tucker Carlson for 2028 GOP nomination
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%2%
Greene publicly supported Carlson, claiming he would beat Trump if he ran for president, which boosted Carlson's market odds despite his denials of running.
JD Vance announces fourth child, boosting family‑oriented image
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
Vance’s public announcement of expecting a fourth child reinforced his pro‑family platform, resonating with conservative voters and nudging his market price upward during March.
Vance appears with influencer Jake Paul at women’s hockey game
J.D. Vance dips to 45%2%
The unusual pairing attracted viral attention, keeping Vance in the public conversation and supporting his market price.
JD Vance remains top choice at Conservative Political Action Conference
J.D. Vance dips to 40%2%
Vance's strong showing at CPAC reinforced his frontrunner status and helped maintain market confidence in his nomination chances.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Governor Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session in Florida to redraw congressional districts, aiming to strengthen Republican control ahead of the 2026 midterms. This move was part of a broader national redistricting battle influenced by a recent Supreme Court ruling, but DeSantis's political standing weakened, reflected in his market price plummeting from 50% to 3% in mid-2025 and remaining low.
Marco Rubio's role in Iran conflict boosts 2028 nomination speculation
Marco Rubio jumps to 20%13%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's prominent involvement in the 2026 Iran conflict increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run, leading to a rise in his market odds and polling numbers.
Republican voters overwhelmingly support Trump’s Iran war policy, reject Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%2%
A poll showed strong Republican support for Trump's military action against Iran, benefiting candidates aligned with Trump like JD Vance and Rubio, while Tucker Carlson's support declined due to his opposition to the war.
JD Vance criticizes local officials amid Minneapolis immigration unrest
J.D. Vance rises to 46%4%
Vance publicly blamed local officials for unrest during immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, reinforcing his law-and-order stance and appealing to conservative voters, impacting his market position positively.
Marco Rubio's diplomatic role in Venezuela boosts his GOP nomination odds
Marco Rubio jumps to 18%10%
Rubio's involvement in a successful military operation in Venezuela increased his visibility and market odds for the nomination.
Marco Rubio gains momentum with endorsements and public appearances
Marco Rubio surges to 27%15%
Marco Rubio’s market price rose from 12% to 27% in early March due to increased campaign activity and endorsements, signaling growing support within the party.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights GOP factionalism and Vance’s rising influence
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, conservative leaders clashed over the future of the GOP, with Vance receiving praise and endorsement from Erika Kirk, reinforcing his frontrunner status despite internal party tensions.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 38%4%
Vance publicly praised the Trump administration’s achievements on abortion restrictions, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing his base, which contributed to a temporary market price stabilization.
Marco Rubio gains further support after prominent role in Iran conflict
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Following Rubio's active role in the 2026 Iran conflict, his market price surged to 27% in March 2026, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 nominee.
JD Vance attends Turning Point USA convention amid conservative party discord
J.D. Vance rises to 44%2%
Vance's speech at Turning Point USA, advocating inclusivity and receiving endorsement from Erika Kirk, strengthened his conservative base support and market position.
JD Vance indicates 50-50 chance of 2028 presidential run in CBS interview
J.D. Vance rises to 42%1%
Vance publicly stated he was considering a 2028 presidential run with a fifty-fifty chance, signaling serious intent and influencing market perceptions positively.
J.D. Vance remains top choice at Conservative Political Action Conference
Polling at CPAC showed Vance with roughly 40% support among likely Republican voters, about twice that of Marco Rubio, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
U.S. strikes on Iran boost Marco Rubio's 2028 nomination odds
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
U.S. military strikes on Iran in late February 2026 increased Marco Rubio's visibility and support among Republicans, leading to a surge in his 2028 nomination odds amid heightened foreign policy profile.
U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran escalate Middle East conflict under Trump administration
Donald Trump dips to 2%2%
The Trump administration's military action against Iran in early 2026 marked a significant foreign policy event, impacting perceptions of Trump and related candidates.
Marco Rubio's 2028 nomination odds surge amid U.S. strikes on Iran
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Following U.S. military strikes on Iran, Rubio's visibility and perceived leadership increased, boosting his 2028 nomination odds significantly and narrowing the gap with Vance.
Florida Rep. Byron Donalds announces 2026 gubernatorial bid with Trump endorsement
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 2%1%
Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative from Florida, announced his candidacy for governor in 2026 with President Donald Trump's endorsement, signaling Trump's influence in Florida politics and affecting the market perception of candidates like Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Tucker Carlson alleges CIA is preparing criminal referral against him
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Carlson claimed the CIA was monitoring his communications to frame him for a crime under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, escalating his legal and political controversies.
J.D. Vance's ambiguous response fuels 2028 presidential speculation
Vice President J.D. Vance gave an evasive answer about a 2028 presidential run during a Fox News interview, which sparked social media discussion but did not significantly alter his market position.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home brought media attention and sympathy, highlighting security concerns and possibly affecting public perception and market price.
Marco Rubio surges in New Hampshire GOP primary poll, narrowing gap with JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 26%16%
A New Hampshire poll showed Rubio surging from 7% to 26%, closing the gap with Vance in the 2028 Republican nomination race, reflecting Rubio's rising momentum and increased viability.
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president
The appointment of a prominent Trump‑linked figure to a top tech role signaled continued influence of Trump‑aligned elites, indirectly benefiting Trump‑related candidates and contributing to the continued decline of Vance’s rivals.
Ron DeSantis drops out of 2028 race
Ron DeSantis dips to 2%1%
DeSantis announced he will not seek the nomination, causing his price to plunge from 3% to 2% and reinforcing Vance’s dominance as the sole major contender.
Marco Rubio gains attention as part of U.S. Olympic delegation with Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%8%
Marco Rubio’s inclusion alongside Vance in the U.S. delegation to the Winter Olympics increased his visibility and market price, benefiting from association with the vice president.
Vice President JD Vance announces Medicaid fraud crackdown deferring $1.3 billion in California funds
J.D. Vance drops to 44%6%
Vance announced aggressive steps to combat Medicaid fraud, including deferring $1.3 billion in California funding, enhancing his profile as a tough administrator and boosting his market standing as a serious presidential contender.
POLITICO profiles JD Vance as leading 2028 Republican contender
A detailed POLITICO article highlighted Vance as the strongest likely contender for the 2028 nomination, increasing public and political attention on him and supporting his market position.
POLITICO profile highlights JD Vance as strongest likely 2028 Republican contender
J.D. Vance drops to 41%7%
A POLITICO profile described Vice President JD Vance as the strongest likely contender for the 2028 Republican nomination, increasing his visibility and solidifying his frontrunner status despite some diplomatic controversies.
JD Vance profile highlights his growing influence and potential 2028 run
J.D. Vance drops to 49%6%
A detailed profile of JD Vance emphasized his role as the strongest likely contender for the 2028 Republican nomination, supporting his market prominence despite some price decline.
Marco Rubio emerges as leading 2028 GOP contender amid Trump legal woes
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%8%
Rubio's strategic positioning on national security and pragmatic approach amid Trump's legal challenges helped him gain momentum as a leading 2028 GOP contender, reflected in his rising market price.
Thomas Massie launches libertarian super‑PAC
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
Massie announced a new libertarian‑focused PAC, nudging his market price up from 1 % to 2 % for a short period.
JD Vance and family attend U.S. women’s hockey games at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 54%2%
Vance’s public appearances with his family at Olympic events humanized his image and increased his visibility among voters, supporting his nomination prospects.
Vance leads U.S. delegation to Armenia and Azerbaijan peace talks
J.D. Vance dips to 47%2%
Vance’s diplomatic mission to the South Caucasus highlighted his foreign‑policy credentials, further bolstering his nomination prospects.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led drive to change political spending rules involving JD Vance
J.D. Vance drops to 44%6%
Vance's involvement in a high-profile Supreme Court case on campaign finance highlighted his political influence and ambitions, affecting market perceptions.
Polls show JD Vance as leading GOP 2028 nominee but with declining support
J.D. Vance drops to 48%7%
Polling indicated Vance's lead was slipping slightly, reflecting growing uncertainty among Republican voters and causing a modest price decline.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
J.D. Vance drops to 42%5%
Vance’s prominent role at the Winter Olympics, including diplomatic and family appearances, enhanced his national profile and demonstrated leadership, supporting his candidacy perception.
Vice President J.D. Vance delivers breakout speech at Munich Security Conference
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%7%
Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference was seen as a breakout moment, enhancing his national profile and solidifying his position as a leading 2028 candidate, positively impacting his market price.
JD Vance delivers speech at Munich Security Conference
J.D. Vance jumps to 53%5%
Vance's speech at a major international conference was seen as a breakout moment, enhancing his stature as a national leader and boosting his 2028 nomination prospects.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio attend Winter Olympics, increasing visibility
Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%
Their attendance at the Olympics opening ceremony and related events boosted their public profiles and positively affected their market prices.
JD Vance delivers breakout speech at Munich Security Conference
Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference was seen as a significant moment that raised his profile internationally and within the party, positively impacting his market price.
Turning Point USA highlights Republican discord at AmericaFest, backs Vance
J.D. Vance dips to 44%4%
At the Turning Point USA AmericaFest convention, JD Vance was praised and endorsed by Erika Kirk, but tensions over bigotry and party unity were evident, signaling challenges for Vance and the GOP moving forward.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led campaign finance case involving JD Vance
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
The Supreme Court heard a case challenging limits on political party spending, with JD Vance as a party to the lawsuit, raising his profile in conservative legal circles and impacting market perceptions.
JD Vance visits Leonardo’s Last Supper during Olympic stay in Milan
J.D. Vance dips to 49%2%
Vance’s VIP access to a cultural landmark during the Olympics generated additional media coverage, sustaining his upward price trend.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home by a man wielding a hammer raised security concerns and drew public sympathy, slightly stabilizing his market price amid other pressures.
JD Vance and Jake Paul watch U.S. women’s hockey at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at the Olympics attracted media attention, enhancing his visibility among younger voters and the broader public, slightly boosting his market position.
JD Vance booed by crowd at Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance drops to 46%8%
Despite leading the delegation, Vance was booed by some spectators at the opening ceremony, reflecting polarized public opinion and causing some negative market reaction.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
Vance and Rubio's prominent roles in the Olympics delegation showcased their national stature and leadership, positively influencing their nomination odds.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics delegation
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%6%
Rubio’s inclusion in the Olympic delegation gave him a brief media boost, lifting his price from 21% to 27% by mid‑March.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance rises to 54%4%
JD Vance's role leading the U.S. delegation at the Winter Olympics elevated his national profile and positively influenced his market price.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance in U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑visibility Olympic delegation raised his national profile, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price.
Marco Rubio steps down as acting U.S. Archivist after 300 days
Marco Rubio rises to 8%1%
Rubio's departure from the National Archives role marked a shift in his administrative responsibilities, coinciding with a gradual rise in his presidential nomination prospects.
Man breaks windows at J.D. Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance dips to 42%2%
An attack on Vance's home raised security concerns and brought media attention to him, possibly affecting perceptions of his vulnerability or resilience. Vance publicly thanked law enforcement, which may have bolstered his image as a strong leader under pressure.
Vice President JD Vance casts tiebreaking vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
Vance broke a 50-50 Senate tie to kill a resolution that would have restricted Trump's military actions in Venezuela, signaling strong party alignment and impacting perceptions of his influence.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers opening remarks at Critical Minerals Ministerial
Marco Rubio rises to 21%1%
Rubio's active role in international diplomacy and economic security initiatives bolstered his profile as a serious candidate for the 2028 nomination.
Iran conflict and Venezuela operation elevate Rubio's profile
Marco Rubio rises to 59%4%
Rubio's central role in the U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro and the conflict with Iran in early 2026 further boosted his nomination odds, as he was seen as a strong foreign policy leader.
Vice President J.D. Vance casts tiebreaking Senate vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
J.D. Vance dips to 49%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance cast the deciding vote in the Senate to kill a resolution that would have limited President Trump's military actions in Venezuela, aligning with the administration's stance and reinforcing his political alignment with Trump. This action maintained Vance's prominence but did not significantly boost his market price, which began a gradual decline afterward.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 43%8%
Conservative group Turning Point USA publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, bolstering his support among young conservatives.
JD Vance touts Trump’s anti‑abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
Vance’s high‑profile appearance at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with core Republican voters, reinforcing his nomination momentum.
Rep. Andy Biggs announces run for Arizona governor with Trump backing
Biggs' gubernatorial bid, supported by Trump, signaled shifts in GOP leadership and potential impacts on the 2028 presidential nomination landscape.
Rep. Andy Biggs announces run for Arizona governor with Trump backing
Andy Biggs' gubernatorial bid, supported by Trump, indicated ongoing factional dynamics within the GOP, affecting market perceptions of Trump-aligned candidates.
JD Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration tensions
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Vance visited Minneapolis amid immigration enforcement tensions, stating the Insurrection Act was not needed currently. His stance and defense of ICE agents amid protests highlighted his law-and-order credentials, influencing his market standing.
JD Vance visits Minneapolis amid immigration enforcement tensions
J.D. Vance dips to 52%1%
Vance’s visit to Minneapolis to address immigration enforcement and local tensions highlighted his active role in administration policy, impacting his market perception.
Ron DeSantis suspends 2024 presidential campaign, endorses Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis ended his 2024 presidential bid and endorsed Donald Trump, consolidating Trump's position and causing DeSantis's market price to plummet.
Marco Rubio confirmed as Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor
Marco Rubio jumps to 24%10%
Marco Rubio's confirmation and roles in the Trump administration elevated his profile, contributing to a steady increase in his market probability from 14% to 24%.
J.D. Vance becomes Vice President of the United States
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance's ascension to the vice presidency increased his national profile and market price, reflecting enhanced prospects for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 47%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing his public image as a pro-family leader.
JD Vance gains endorsement from Turning Point USA and conservative activists
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Endorsements from influential conservative groups bolstered Vance's grassroots support and solidified his status as a leading 2028 contender.
JD Vance emerges as Trump’s favored successor for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 50%10%
President Trump publicly named JD Vance as the most likely heir to his MAGA movement and the favored candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, boosting Vance’s profile and market odds.
JD Vance endorsed by Turning Point USA and maintains frontrunner status
JD Vance received a key endorsement from Turning Point USA, solidifying his position as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination amid strong party support.
JD Vance endorsed by influential conservative group Turning Point USA
JD Vance received endorsement from Turning Point USA, a powerful conservative organization, bolstering his grassroots support ahead of the 2028 nomination.
Critics label J.D. Vance a loyalist to Trump amid 2028 speculation
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Public criticism and scrutiny of Vance's alignment with Trump emerged, highlighting his political positioning and affecting perceptions but not significantly altering market prices.
Glenn Youngkin ends term as Virginia governor
Glenn Youngkin dips to 1%2%
Youngkin's term ended due to term limits, leading to a decline in his market price as he transitioned out of elected office and into private sector roles.
JD Vance speaks at March for Life rally praising Trump’s abortion policies
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Vance publicly praised the Trump administration’s record against abortion at a major conservative rally, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appealing to the Republican base.
Tucker Carlson denies plans to run for president in 2028 amid GOP break
Tucker Carlson rises to 7%2%
Tucker Carlson publicly ruled out a 2028 presidential bid shortly after announcing he no longer supports the Republican Party. Despite his denial, his odds on prediction markets rose due to speculation and support from some MAGA figures advocating for his candidacy, adding uncertainty to the GOP field.
Marco Rubio signals support for J.D. Vance's 2028 bid
Marco Rubio jumps to 16%7%
Rubio publicly stated he would be among the first to support Vance if he runs for president, strengthening Vance's position and Rubio's own market standing.
JD Vance delivers speech at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest, gaining conservative support
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
JD Vance’s speech at a major conservative conference and endorsement by Turning Point USA boosted his standing among grassroots conservatives, supporting a price peak around 55%.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 60%1%
The personal news humanized the vice president and generated positive media coverage, contributing to a modest price increase for Vance from 59% to 60% (peak) before a slight dip later in the month.
Vivek Ramaswamy drops out of 2024 presidential race and endorses Donald Trump
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
After a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Vivek Ramaswamy ended his 2024 presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump, signaling a retreat from national ambitions and impacting his 2028 nomination prospects.
Rubio backs Iranian protestors in televised White House briefing
Marco Rubio jumps to 18%10%
Rubio’s televised briefing to the press on Jan 19 highlighted his support for anti‑government protests in Iran, lifting his market odds sharply in March.
Ron DeSantis approval rating declines amid 2028 presidential ambitions
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
DeSantis's approval rating dropped to around 50%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction after his failed 2024 presidential run, which negatively impacted his 2028 nomination chances and market price.
Turning Point USA plans early support for JD Vance in key primary states
J.D. Vance rises to 55%3%
Following Erika Kirk's endorsement, Turning Point USA announced plans to support JD Vance in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, reinforcing his campaign infrastructure and boosting market confidence.
Ron DeSantis signs Florida 2026-2027 budget with conservative priorities
DeSantis signed a significant state budget emphasizing conservative governance and economic growth, maintaining his political relevance despite term limits, slightly stabilizing his market position.
JD Vance maintains lead in The Center Square poll with 40% support
Despite some decline, Vance remained the strongest GOP contender in this poll, supporting his market position above rivals.
Rubio pledges to back JD Vance if he runs for president
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%8%
Rubio’s interview with Vanity Fair confirmed he would support Vance if he ran, lifting Rubio’s market price from 15 % to 23 % by late January.
Poll shows overwhelming Republican opposition to taking Greenland by force
Donald Trump dips to 2%2%
A bipartisan poll revealing that even most Republicans oppose a military takeover of Greenland undercut Donald Trump’s foreign‑policy agenda, contributing to a further decline in Trump‑related candidates’ market prices.
Republican National Committee adopts amendment to hold midterms convention
The RNC's decision to hold a midterms convention was seen as a strategic move to energize the party base and support candidates, indirectly affecting the presidential nomination landscape.
Vice President J.D. Vance and wife announce pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
The announcement of Vance's growing family humanized him and reinforced his pro-family image, which is a key theme in conservative politics. This personal news likely helped maintain his support among conservative voters and activists.
Thomas Massie gains attention as a Trump critic in Kentucky primary race
Thomas Massie rises to 2%1%
Massie, known for opposing Trump on key issues, launched a competitive primary campaign in Kentucky, attracting media attention and modest market interest as a potential 2028 contender.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a great nominee for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling party consolidation and causing Youngkin's market price to drop from 50% to 1%.
Glenn Youngkin publicly backs JD Vance for 2028 nomination in exclusive Fox News interview
J.D. Vance rises to 55%3%
Youngkin reiterated his support for Vance as the 2028 GOP nominee in a high-profile interview, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status and contributing to market confidence.
Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance as a 'great' Republican nominee for 2028
J.D. Vance plunges to 2%48%
Outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party consolidation and influencing market perceptions.
Glenn Youngkin endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status and market confidence.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, aligning with other prominent Republicans and reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorses JD Vance for 2028 nomination
Youngkin publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a great nominee for 2028, adding to Vance's growing support among Republican leaders.
Suspect in vandalism of JD Vance’s home pleads not guilty in federal court
The suspect charged with vandalizing Vance’s home pleaded not guilty, prolonging legal proceedings and keeping the incident in public attention, which maintained market focus on Vance’s security and public image.
Vice President JD Vance touts Trump administration's anti-abortion record at March for Life
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements on abortion restrictions, appealing to conservative voters and reinforcing his standing within the party.
Vance’s pregnancy announcement revisited, boosting his personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 54%2%
A follow‑up social‑media post confirming the upcoming birth kept Vance in the news cycle, sustaining his market momentum during a period of relative price stability.
JD Vance touts Trump’s anti‑abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
By linking himself to the successful anti‑abortion agenda, Vance reinforced his appeal to the party’s social‑conservative base, lifting his price modestly as rivals lost ground on that issue.
Tucker Carlson meets Trump and oil executives in the White House
Tucker Carlson jumps to 7%5%
A photo‑op showed Tucker Carlson meeting President Trump and senior oil executives in the White House East Room. The visibility raised Carlson’s market odds, moving his price from 2 % in early January to 5 % by early April and ultimately to 7 % by early June.
YouGov poll shows decline in JD Vance's GOP support
J.D. Vance drops to 48%7%
A YouGov survey indicated a 5-point drop in Republican support for Vance, signaling waning enthusiasm and causing a market price decline.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led challenge to political spending limits including JD Vance
The Supreme Court heard a case challenging limits on political party spending, with Vice President JD Vance involved, raising speculation about his political ambitions and affecting market perceptions.
Marco Rubio outlines US strategy for Venezuela post-Maduro
Rubio clarified that the US would enforce an oil embargo and use leverage to press for policy changes in Venezuela, tempering concerns about direct governance and stabilizing his nomination odds.
Polls show US voters oppose taking Greenland by military force despite Trump's stance
Marco Rubio drops to 7%8%
Polls revealed widespread opposition among US voters, including Republicans, to President Trump's suggestion of taking Greenland by military force, highlighting challenges for candidates aligned with Trump and affecting market perceptions of Trump and Rubio.
Vivek Ramaswamy's bodyguard arrested on drug trafficking charges
Vivek Ramaswamy dips to 1%1%
The arrest of Ramaswamy's bodyguard on serious drug charges damaged his campaign's reputation, contributing to a further decline in his nomination market price.
JD Vance promises ramped-up immigration enforcement
Vance's statement on aggressive immigration enforcement aligned with conservative priorities, enhancing his standing among the Republican base.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on JD Vance's residence by a man causing property damage brought media attention and sympathy to Vance, reinforcing his public profile and possibly contributing to a temporary market price stabilization.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis calls special legislative session for redistricting
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Ron DeSantis announced a special legislative session to redraw Florida's congressional maps, aiming to strengthen Republican control ahead of the 2026 midterms, which coincided with a steep drop in his market price.
Man arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home with hammer
J.D. Vance dips to 3%3%
A man armed with a hammer broke windows at Vice President JD Vance's Ohio residence and was detained by the Secret Service. This security incident raised concerns about Vance's safety and may have negatively impacted his market price, which dropped from 6% to 3% around this time.
Marco Rubio sees surge in nomination odds
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
Marco Rubio's profile rose as he took a central role in the Trump administration's foreign policy, particularly regarding Venezuela, boosting his standing as a potential successor.
Man detained after vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
A man armed with a hammer broke windows at Vice President JD Vance's Ohio home and was detained by the Secret Service, raising security concerns and drawing public attention to Vance's personal safety, impacting market perceptions.
Trump administration conducts military operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
President Donald Trump's administration executed a military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio playing a key role in briefing Congress and managing the foreign policy narrative. This event bolstered Rubio's profile, reflected in his market price rising from 14% to 26% in early 2026.
Marco Rubio publicly defers to JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio rises to 13%4%
Marco Rubio publicly indicated he would support JD Vance if he runs for president in 2028, signaling party unity and boosting Vance's market position.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
A security incident occurred when a man vandalized Vice President Vance's home, causing significant damage and leading to federal charges. This event highlighted security concerns but also elicited public sympathy for Vance, stabilizing his market position.
Vandalism incident at J.D. Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance dips to 50%2%
A man was detained after breaking windows at the Vice President's home, an event that kept Vance in the news cycle during a period of political jockeying.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%7%
The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and supported by Vice President JD Vance, conducted a military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, boosting Rubio's profile and impacting the nomination market.
Trump administration announces successful military operation in Venezuela involving Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%6%
Marco Rubio's prominent role in the Venezuela operation increased his visibility and boosted his chances in the Republican nomination market.
Donald Trump Jr. gains momentum as a 2028 GOP dark horse candidate
Donald Trump Jr. surges to 35%32%
Donald Trump Jr. surged in polls and prediction markets as a potential 2028 Republican nominee, especially among younger voters, challenging frontrunners and increasing his market odds.
Successful U.S. military operation in Venezuela involving Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
The operation's success and Rubio's prominent role increased his visibility and nomination odds, reflecting his foreign policy credentials.
Marco Rubio's involvement in Venezuela operation raises his profile
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio's prominent role in a successful military operation in Venezuela increased his visibility and boosted his market chances for the 2028 nomination.
Trump admin announces Venezuela operation; Rubio highlighted
Marco Rubio jumps to 12%8%
The Trump administration announced a successful military operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro, highlighting Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s prominent role. The news lifted Rubio’s market price from the low‑teens to the mid‑teens, marking the start of his steady climb through March 2026.
US operation leads to capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, boosting Rubio's profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%8%
Marco Rubio's involvement in the US operation capturing Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro increased his visibility and presidential odds, causing a rise in his market price.
Marco Rubio’s 2028 presidential odds jump after Venezuela operation
Marco Rubio rises to 7%3%
Following the US operation that led to the capture of Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro, Marco Rubio’s odds for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination rose from 4% to 7%, reflecting increased visibility and support due to his role in foreign policy.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
An attack on Vance's home heightened public attention on his security and political profile, possibly eliciting sympathy and support from GOP voters.
Man arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance rises to 56%1%
The arrest of William D. DeFoor for damaging JD Vance's home highlighted security concerns but also garnered sympathy and support for Vance, stabilizing his market position.
JD Vance emphasizes loyalty to Trump as key to 2028 nomination bid
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Vance's strategy to remain loyal to Trump and avoid antagonizing MAGA factions was highlighted, signaling his intent to secure Trump's backing for a 2028 run, which helped maintain his market position.
JD Vance tops National Pro-Life Summit straw poll for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance's dominant performance in this conservative poll reinforced his frontrunner status and contributed to sustained market confidence.
JD Vance focuses on loyalty to Trump and midterm campaigning to secure 2028 nomination
JD Vance prioritized showing loyalty to Trump and campaigning for Republican midterm candidates to build support and raise funds, reinforcing his frontrunner status for 2028.
JD Vance named finance chair of Republican National Committee
Vance's appointment as RNC finance chair helped him build donor networks and political capital ahead of a potential 2028 run, supporting his frontrunner position.
JD Vance wins CPAC straw poll for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Vance's victory in the influential CPAC straw poll confirmed his frontrunner status and reinforced market confidence in his nomination chances.
Republicans urged to consider post-Trump 2028 landscape
Analysts and party figures highlighted Vance's position as the 2028 frontrunner and the importance of midterms, reinforcing market confidence in Vance's candidacy.
Vance outlines strategy to stay loyal to Trump and raise big money for 2028
Axios reported Vance’s plan to remain loyal to Trump and raise money as RNC finance chair, reinforcing his front‑runner status and keeping his price near 55 %.
Republicans increasingly view J.D. Vance as 2028 GOP frontrunner
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Analyses and endorsements positioned Vance as the leading candidate for the 2028 nomination, boosting his market price and solidifying his status within the party.
Vance named RNC finance chair to boost fundraising
J.D. Vance jumps to 49%14%
JD Vance was named finance chair of the Republican National Committee, strengthening his fundraising capabilities and positioning him as a serious 2028 candidate.
Tucker Carlson faces backlash after interview with Nick Fuentes
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%3%
Carlson’s on‑air interview with white‑nationalist Nick Fuentes drew bipartisan condemnation and a sharp dip in his market price from 5 % to 2 % within days.
Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
The announcement of a fourth child strengthened Vance's family image and pro-family messaging, further solidifying his appeal to conservative voters.
U.S. State Department announces actions against global censorship efforts
Marco Rubio rises to 18%3%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced measures targeting foreign censorship of American viewpoints, highlighting his active foreign policy stance and impacting his market position.
Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance at Turning Point USA AmericaFest
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Endorsement from Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk and support from influential conservatives like Nicki Minaj bolstered Vance's standing among the GOP base and volunteers.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
J.D. Vance surges to 55%16%
Conservative organization Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028, signaling strong grassroots and organizational support that boosted his market price.
Vice President JD Vance delivers keynote at AmericaFest 2025
Vance's keynote speech at a major conservative youth event reinforced his leadership image and consolidated support among young conservatives.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
J.D. Vance dips to 39%3%
The vandalism incident generated negative headlines for Vance, causing a brief dip in his market price as security concerns and personal attacks entered the news cycle.
Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration crackdown
J.D. Vance dips to 51%2%
Vance’s public statement downplaying the need for the Insurrection Act kept him in the news while reinforcing his law‑and‑order image, causing a slight dip in his price.
Tucker Carlson calls attacks on Muslim Americans ‘disgusting’ and later defends Sharia law
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson’s controversial comments condemning attacks on Muslim Americans and later praising Sharia triggered backlash from right‑wing commentators, limiting his political relevance and keeping his market price flat at a low‑single‑digit level (5‑6 %).
Turning Point USA leader publicly endorses JD Vance at AmericaFest
This endorsement from a key MAGA-aligned organization strengthened Vance's position as the party's likely nominee.
Turning Point USA endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed J.D. Vance at the AmericaFest conference, boosting his support among conservative activists and increasing his market probability.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 nomination
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance at a conservative conference, promising strong organizational support for his 2028 presidential bid, which bolstered his standing among conservative activists.
Erika Kirk of Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance dips to 54%2%
Erika Kirk's endorsement of JD Vance at AmericaFest boosted his profile and market odds as a leading Republican candidate for 2028.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 presidential race
J.D. Vance rises to 58%4%
Erika Kirk's endorsement of J.D. Vance at the America Fest conference boosted his profile and market odds, reinforcing his position as the leading Republican candidate for 2028.
Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk endorses J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Erika Kirk's endorsement at AmericaFest signaled influential conservative support for Vance, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence.
Erika Kirk endorses J.D. Vance for president in 2028 at Turning Point USA conference
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
Erika Kirk, widow of Turning Point USA co-founder Charlie Kirk, threw the full weight of the influential conservative grassroots organization behind Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 nomination.
Turning Point USA officially endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 nomination, solidifying his position as the frontrunner among grassroots conservative organizations.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Erika Kirk's public endorsement of J.D. Vance at the AmericaFest convention solidified his position as the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination among key conservative grassroots networks.
President Trump announces 'Patriot Games' youth athletic competition
Donald Trump rises to 6%2%
Trump announced a national youth athletic event as part of the U.S. 250th anniversary celebrations, a cultural initiative that briefly raised his public profile.
Tucker Carlson faces backlash for controversial statements on Islam and Israel
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%
Carlson's December 2025 remarks downplaying radical Islam and blaming Israel for fears led to criticism and a decline in his political influence, reflected in stagnant low market support.
Vice President JD Vance defends wife against racist attacks
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
JD Vance publicly condemned attacks on his wife, Usha Vance, including racist comments by Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his personal and political resolve, which positively influenced his market price.
Vice President J.D. Vance addresses conservative discord at Turning Point USA conference
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
At the Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference, Vice President J.D. Vance emphasized inclusivity within the conservative movement and declined to condemn antisemitism, aiming to unify the party amid internal conflicts. This event highlighted the challenges Vance faces in consolidating support, contributing to a gradual decline in his market price from late 2025 into early 2026.
Outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin rolls out final 2026‑2028 budget ahead of his exit
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s final two‑year budget presentation and his announced departure from the governor’s seat signaled the end of his political career, driving his market price from 50 % in July 2025 to 1 % by May 2026.
Vance defends marriage and family policy during UnHerd interview
Vance addressed criticism of his interfaith marriage and defended his family values, reinforcing his pro-family platform and appeal to conservative voters.
Glenn Youngkin pitches final budget highlighting strong revenues before leaving office
Youngkin presented a fiscally responsible budget emphasizing Virginia's economic strength, reinforcing his record as governor but not boosting presidential prospects.
Turning Point USA endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, officially endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, solidifying his position as the movement's preferred candidate.
Marco Rubio rules out 2028 run if JD Vance seeks Republican nomination
Marco Rubio publicly stated he would not run for president in 2028 if JD Vance seeks the nomination, reinforcing Vance's position and signaling party cohesion, which influenced market confidence in Vance.
Marco Rubio rules out 2028 run if JD Vance seeks Republican nomination
Marco Rubio publicly stated he would not run for the 2028 Republican nomination if JD Vance runs, signaling party unity and possibly stabilizing Vance's frontrunner position in the market.
Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance meet with Greenland and Denmark officials
Marco Rubio rises to 11%4%
This diplomatic engagement raised Rubio's profile and slightly increased his nomination odds, reflecting his active role in foreign policy.
Marco Rubio and JD Vance meet with Greenland and Denmark officials
Marco Rubio rises to 11%4%
Rubio's diplomatic engagement raised his profile and increased his nomination odds, reflected in market price gains.
Rubio Rules Out 2028 Run If JD Vance Seeks Nomination
Marco Rubio plunges to 3%32%
Rubio announced he would not run if Vance entered the race, effectively clearing the field for Vance and pushing Rubio’s market price down from 35 % to 3 % by August 2025.
JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife by far-right figures
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance publicly denounced racist attacks on his wife by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes and others, asserting a strong personal stance that resonated with moderate conservatives and helped maintain his support.
Nick Fuentes campaigns against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio governor race
Vivek Ramaswamy dips to 1%1%
Far-right figure Nick Fuentes announced plans to oppose Ramaswamy's gubernatorial bid, highlighting racial and ideological attacks that likely hurt Ramaswamy's political standing and market price.
Donald Trump Jr. announces engagement to Bettina Anderson at White House
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 2%1%
The public engagement announcement of Donald Trump Jr. at the White House brought personal attention to his profile, though it did not translate into increased nomination chances.
JD Vance defends his wife amid racist attacks, strengthening his public image
Vice President JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks against his wife, Usha Vance, including those by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes, asserting a strong protective stance that resonated with supporters and helped stabilize his nomination odds.
StopAntisemitism crowns Tucker Carlson 2025 ‘Antisemite of the Year’
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%2%
The watchdog group StopAntisemitism named Tucker Carlson “Antisemite of the Year” for 2025, drawing widespread media criticism. The negative publicity caused the market’s price for the “Tucker Carlson” option to rise modestly from 4 % in early December to a peak of 9 % in early June 2026, stabilising at 5 % on the final day.
Donald Trump Jr. gets engaged to socialite Bettina Anderson
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr. announced his engagement to Bettina Anderson, shifting media focus away from his political ambitions and coinciding with a sharp fall in his market price from 35 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % by 2025‑08‑04.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
The Supreme Court’s hearing of a case that includes JD Vance raised speculation about future fundraising rules, benefiting candidates perceived as aligned with the party’s legal strategy and giving a modest boost to Marco Rubio’s odds.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid controversy over Nick Fuentes
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks on his wife by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes and others, taking a strong stance against bigotry which helped solidify his image among moderate conservatives and may have stabilized his market support.
DeSantis lays groundwork for possible 2028 presidential return with Florida policies
Despite term limits, DeSantis pushed through significant policies and maintained influence in Florida, keeping his 2028 presidential prospects alive, though market prices remained low.
Ron DeSantis lays groundwork for possible 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis dips to 3%1%
Despite earlier dismissals, Ron DeSantis began positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential campaign, highlighting his gubernatorial accomplishments and keeping the door open for a run, though his market price remained low.
Vice President JD Vance publicly defends wife against racist attacks
J.D. Vance rises to 54%2%
Vance strongly condemned attacks on his wife Usha Vance by far-right figures, asserting anyone attacking his family 'can eat s---,' which reinforced his image as a protective and resolute leader, stabilizing his market support.
Ron DeSantis announces $4.1 billion health investment in Florida budget
DeSantis unveiled a major budget including significant funding for health care and cancer research, reinforcing his leadership credentials despite declining nomination odds.
JD Vance posts then deletes reference to Armenian genocide during diplomatic visit
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
Vance’s social‑media post about the Armenian genocide was quickly removed after criticism, generating a brief controversy that modestly affected his market perception.
JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Vance’s strong public defense of his wife against racist comments reinforced his personal image and may have influenced his market support positively.
Supreme Court hears case linked to JD Vance's 2028 ambitions
The Supreme Court discussed JD Vance's 2028 presidential ambitions during a case on campaign finance restrictions, signaling potential legal changes that could benefit Vance's campaign efforts and maintaining market interest in his candidacy.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
A man vandalized Vice President JD Vance's home in Ohio, causing significant damage and leading to his detention. The incident brought media attention to Vance's personal security and public profile, slightly impacting his market perception.
Tucker Carlson announces purchase of home in Qatar, sparking conservative backlash
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%4%
Carlson's announcement of buying property in Qatar led to criticism from conservative figures, damaging his standing within the GOP and reducing his nomination chances.
JD Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid fraud crackdown in California
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vice President JD Vance announced a major federal initiative to defer $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds to California over suspected fraud, highlighting his active role in government and boosting his political profile.
Vice President JD Vance announces expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, highlighting his family-oriented image which aligns with his political messaging on family values, positively influencing his market perception.
President Trump states he will not be 2028 nominee, endorses successor in administration
J.D. Vance rises to 59%3%
President Trump clarified he will not seek the 2028 Republican nomination and predicted his successor will be someone from his administration, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status and impacting market prices.
Trump says he won’t be 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Trump publicly said he would not be the 2028 nominee, shifting market sentiment and dropping Trump’s price from 15 % (2025‑07‑11) to 4 % (2025‑08‑05).
Donald Trump says he won't be 2028 Republican nominee, predicts successor from his administration
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
President Donald Trump publicly stated he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, shifting market probabilities away from himself and benefiting candidates like J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio.
President Donald Trump says he won't be 2028 Republican nominee, backs JD Vance
J.D. Vance drops to 3%12%
President Trump stated clearly he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee and acknowledged Vice President JD Vance as the most likely heir apparent, boosting Vance's market position and causing declines for Trump and Trump Jr.
Donald Trump says he won't run in 2028, predicts successor from his administration
President Donald Trump publicly stated he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee and predicted that his successor will come from his administration, implicitly endorsing figures like J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio as potential nominees.
Donald Trump publicly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump dips to 5%1%
President Trump announced he would not seek the Republican nomination in 2028, which shifted market expectations away from him and towards other candidates like JD Vance and Marco Rubio.
Rubio backs U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities
Marco Rubio drops to 8%6%
Rubio publicly defended the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, positioning himself as a hawk on national security and sparking a modest rise in his market probability.
Donald Trump says he won’t be 2028 Republican nominee, favors Vance and Rubio
J.D. Vance rises to 53%3%
President Donald Trump stated clearly he will not run in 2028 and predicted his GOP successor will be someone from his administration, naming Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as top contenders.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance amid conservative party tensions
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed JD Vance as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his market price.
Vance’s family appears at Milan hockey game, drawing media attention
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance’s public appearance with his family at a U.S. women’s hockey game during the Olympics generated positive coverage and reinforced his image as a family‑oriented leader, contributing to a modest price increase.
Donald Trump publicly names JD Vance as most likely 2028 GOP nominee
President Donald Trump stated that Vice President JD Vance is the most likely Republican nominee for 2028, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status and impacting market prices.
Trump says he won’t run in 2028 and backs JD Vance as successor
J.D. Vance plunges to 31%25%
President Trump told reporters he would not be the 2028 nominee and named Vice President J.D. Vance as the most likely successor. The comment cemented Vance’s front‑runner image and contributed to the downward pressure on other candidates, especially J.D. Vance’s own price, which began a gradual decline after the peak in late 2025.
Donald Trump states he will not be 2028 GOP nominee, endorses JD Vance as likely successor
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
President Trump clarified he will not run for the 2028 Republican nomination due to constitutional term limits and indicated Vice President JD Vance as the favored successor, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status.
Donald Trump publicly announces he will not run for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%5%
President Trump's declaration he would not be the nominee cleared the path for other candidates, notably boosting Vance's odds and causing sharp declines for DeSantis and Trump Jr.
Vice President Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid controversy
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks on his wife Usha Vance by figures like Nick Fuentes and Jen Psaki, asserting a strong stance against ethnic-based judgment, which reinforced his public image and affected market sentiment.
JD Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral to California
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance’s high‑profile anti‑fraud initiative showcased his executive authority, reinforcing his image as a decisive leader and nudging his price upward from 55% to 59% by early January 2026.
Trump says he will not run for 2028 Republican nomination
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Trump announced he would not be the 2028 Republican nominee, causing his own market price to fall from 15 % to 4 % and slightly boosting Vance’s price.
Donald Trump publicly states he will not be 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
President Trump announced he will not be the Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election, which shifted market probabilities away from Trump and his son, benefiting other candidates like Vance and Rubio.
Marco Rubio becomes Secretary of State, boosting 2028 nomination prospects
Marco Rubio surges to 55%41%
Marco Rubio's appointment as U.S. Secretary of State increased his visibility and credibility, leading to a surge in his 2028 Republican nomination odds as he gained foreign policy credentials.
President Trump publicly states he will not be 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Trump's announcement that he will not seek the 2028 nomination caused a sharp drop in his and Donald Trump Jr.'s market odds, shifting focus to other candidates like Vance and Rubio.
CPAC straw poll shows JD Vance as favorite for 2028 GOP presidential nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
JD Vance's strong showing in the CPAC straw poll confirmed his frontrunner status among conservative activists, boosting market confidence in his nomination chances.
Trump publicly states he will not be 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 34%19%
Trump's announcement removed himself from consideration, shifting focus to Vance and Rubio as the primary contenders and boosting Vance's market position.
JD Vance delivers speech at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest, endorsed by Erika Kirk
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Vance emphasized inclusivity in the conservative movement and received endorsement from Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk, enhancing his grassroots support and market standing.
President Trump announces he will not be GOP nominee in 2028
Trump publicly stated he would not seek the 2028 nomination, causing a major shift in market odds with Vance and Rubio rising as leading contenders.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid right-wing controversies
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks on his wife by right-wing figures including Nick Fuentes and Jen Psaki, asserting a strong stance against ethnic bigotry. This statement reinforced his leadership image but also highlighted ongoing tensions within the conservative movement, contributing to a slight decline in his market price from 55% to 54%.
JD Vance endorsed by Turning Point USA for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 56%1%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, publicly endorsed JD Vance, signaling strong grassroots support and contributing to a price increase to 56%.
JD Vance widely viewed as heir apparent in Trump-aligned GOP for 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
Media coverage reinforced Vance's status as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, supporting his market position despite some volatility.
Donald Trump announces plan to run for U.S. presidency in 2028 via Truth Social post
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
Donald Trump publicly declared his intention to run for president in 2028, rekindling hopes among his supporters and impacting the market by increasing speculation about his candidacy despite constitutional limits.
J.D. Vance wins Ohio special Senate race, emerges as 2028 frontrunner
J.D. Vance jumps to 38%9%
Vice‑president J.D. Vance won the 2025 special election for the U.S. Senate in Ohio, dramatically increasing his national profile and positioning him as a leading 2028 presidential hopeful. The market’s “J.D. Vance” price jumped from 31 % on 2025‑10‑12 to 55 % on 2025‑08‑04 and stayed above 45 % for the rest of the window, ending at 38 % on 2026‑06‑25.
Donald Trump receives unconditional discharge for 2024 felony conviction
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts in the New York hush money case but received an unconditional discharge in January 2025, allowing him to avoid prison or probation, maintaining his political viability.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 55%14%
Turning Point USA announced official endorsement of JD Vance, lifting his price from the low‑40s to roughly 55 % by early December.
Turning Point USA announces support for J.D. Vance as Republican nominee
J.D. Vance rises to 48%1%
Turning Point USA's announcement of support for Vance helped consolidate conservative activist backing, boosting his market odds significantly.
Glenn Youngkin announces $3 billion data center investment in Virginia
Glenn Youngkin dips to 1%2%
Youngkin's announcement of a major economic development project in Virginia highlighted his focus on state leadership, but did not translate into national nomination momentum.
Governor Glenn Youngkin announces federal approval of Virginia’s BEAD broadband proposal
Glenn Youngkin dips to 1%2%
Youngkin's announcement of federal approval for a major broadband initiative highlighted his gubernatorial accomplishments but had limited impact on his presidential nomination prospects.
J.D. Vance leads early 2028 GOP primary polls in New Hampshire
J.D. Vance rises to 59%3%
Polls showed Vance with a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters, solidifying his position as the early frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination, which supported his market price.
Donald Trump Jr. gains momentum in 2028 Republican nomination polls
Donald Trump Jr. jumps to 10%7%
Polling data showed Donald Trump Jr. narrowing the gap with J.D. Vance as a potential 2028 Republican nominee, especially gaining support among younger voters and MAGA loyalists.
Vice President J.D. Vance discusses possible 2028 presidential run after midterms
J.D. Vance jumps to 43%14%
Vance publicly stated he would discuss a 2028 presidential run with Trump after the 2026 midterms, reinforcing his position as a leading contender and causing his market price to rise.
Poll shows Donald Trump Jr. surging as dark horse for 2028 Republican nomination
Donald Trump Jr. jumps to 10%7%
A YouGov poll revealed growing support for Donald Trump Jr. among younger Republicans and right-leaning independents, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 nominee despite no formal campaign.
J.D. Vance plans to discuss 2028 presidential run with Donald Trump
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Vance revealed intentions to consult with former President Trump about a possible 2028 campaign, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing market interest to remain elevated.
Supreme Court hears GOP challenge to party‑spending limits, Vance joins lawsuit
J.D. Vance dips to 42%4%
Vance’s participation in a Supreme Court case to lift party‑spending caps signaled his ambition for higher office, giving his market price a modest boost as donors anticipated a more powerful campaign infrastructure.
Far-right Nick Fuentes campaigns against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio governor race
Vivek Ramaswamy dips to 1%2%
Fuentes' opposition to Ramaswamy, including racially charged attacks, created political challenges for Ramaswamy's gubernatorial campaign, impacting his nomination market price.
Poll shows Ron DeSantis retains double-digit support among liberal Republicans
Ron DeSantis jumps to 12%10%
A poll by Overton Insights showed Ron DeSantis with 12% support in the GOP nomination race, performing better among liberal Republicans and Kamala Harris 2024 voters, suggesting some niche appeal despite overall low numbers. This helped stabilize his market price temporarily.
Overton Insights poll shows Ron DeSantis with double-digit support, trailing Vance and Trump Jr.
Ron DeSantis jumps to 12%10%
A poll by Overton Insights showed DeSantis with 12% support, placing him third behind JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr., indicating some resilience among certain Republican subgroups despite his overall decline.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
An attack on JD Vance’s home by a man causing property damage brought media attention to Vance, reinforcing his public profile and security concerns. The market price remained relatively stable but highlighted his prominence.
Greg Abbott launches campaign for fourth term as Texas governor, fueling 2028 speculation
Greg Abbott plunges to 1%24%
Abbott announced his 2026 reelection campaign, positioning himself strongly in Texas politics and sparking speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, though he has not committed to it.
Marco Rubio privately backs JD Vance as 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance jumps to 24%10%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately expressed strong support for Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination, reinforcing party unity and boosting Vance's perceived inevitability as nominee.
Marco Rubio privately acknowledges JD Vance as 2028 frontrunner
J.D. Vance jumps to 60%5%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he would support Vance if he chose to run, reinforcing Vance's position as the leading candidate.
Rubio privately confirms Vance as 2028 Republican nominee frontrunner
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination and would support him if Vance chose to run, reinforcing the market's expectation of Vance as the nominee.
Marco Rubio privately states JD Vance is frontrunner for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed support for him, reinforcing Vance's position and boosting his market price.
Emerson College poll shows Ron DeSantis at new low of 2% support for 2028 GOP nomination
Ron DeSantis plunges to 2%48%
A national poll from Emerson College revealed Ron DeSantis's support plummeting to 2%, his worst performance yet, while JD Vance led with 54%. This poll highlighted DeSantis's declining viability and boosted Vance's perceived frontrunner status.
Marco Rubio privately endorses J.D. Vance as 2028 frontrunner
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Rubio expressed to confidants that J.D. Vance is the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, reinforcing Vance's position and influencing market prices accordingly.
Marco Rubio privately states J.D. Vance is frontrunner for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 55%1%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that J.D. Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed his support for Vance, reinforcing Vance's position and increasing market confidence in his nomination.
Marco Rubio privately tells confidants that JD Vance is the 2028 frontrunner
Marco Rubio privately expressed to confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he would support Vance if he runs, signaling party alignment behind Vance.
Marco Rubio privately says JD Vance is 2028 frontrunner and pledges support
Marco Rubio jumps to 24%10%
Marco Rubio privately told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and expressed willingness to support him, which likely contributed to Rubio's price increase from 14% to 24% and reinforced Vance's frontrunner status.
Marco Rubio privately acknowledges J.D. Vance as frontrunner
Marco Rubio told confidants he supports J.D. Vance as the likely Republican nominee, signaling party consolidation around Vance and boosting his market position.
Rubio privately confides Vance is the frontrunner for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and would support him if he chose to run.
Marco Rubio privately backs JD Vance as 2028 GOP nominee
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants that Vice President JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he would support Vance if he runs. This private endorsement signaled party consolidation around Vance and likely influenced market confidence in Vance's nomination chances.
Rubio says JD Vance is the GOP’s 2028 frontrunner in private conversations
Marco Rubio rises to 18%4%
Rubio privately told confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner and that he would back a Trump‑chosen ticket, nudging Rubio’s own market price upward from 14 % to 18 % over the next month.
Marco Rubio privately backs J.D. Vance as 2028 GOP nominee
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told confidants he supports Vice President J.D. Vance as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and would back him if he runs. Rubio's endorsement helped consolidate Vance's position as the leading candidate.
Marco Rubio privately endorses JD Vance as 2028 frontrunner
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Rubio expressed private support for JD Vance as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party consolidation around Vance and boosting his market prospects.
Democrats sweep Virginia statewide offices, GOP suffers losses
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Democratic victories in Virginia's 2025 elections reflected poorly on Republican leadership including Glenn Youngkin, affecting his political capital and market price.
Glenn Youngkin leaves office as Virginia governor, ending 2022-2026 term
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin's term ended in January 2026 due to term limits, reducing his viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, reflected in his market price decline from 50% to 1%.
Glenn Youngkin defeated in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial election
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Glenn Youngkin lost his bid for re‑election in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race, confirming he will not be a viable 2028 presidential contender. The market’s “Glenn Youngkin” price fell from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the window.
Donald Trump Jr. surges in 2028 Republican presidential primary odds
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 3%1%
Donald Trump Jr. gained momentum in prediction markets and polls as a potential 2028 Republican nominee, moving ahead of Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump in odds despite denying interest in running.
Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral for California
Vance's administration took aggressive steps to investigate Medicaid fraud, enhancing his credibility on fiscal responsibility and public trust. This action reinforced his policy platform.
JD Vance maintains early lead in Republican nomination market
J.D. Vance jumps to 60%5%
JD Vance held a strong position early in the analysis window, with market prices around 55-60%, reflecting his status as the initial frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Vance’s positive remarks at March for Life rally reinforce pro‑life credentials
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Vance’s speech at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with Trump’s anti‑abortion legacy, reinforcing support among socially conservative voters and stabilizing his market price.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Erika Kirk's endorsement of Vance as the 48th president helped establish early momentum for Vance in the market, with Turning Point USA planning to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Donald Trump expresses interest in running for a third term in 2028
Donald Trump rises to 5%1%
Trump publicly stated he would "love to" run again in 2028 and hinted at possible methods to do so despite constitutional limits, fueling speculation and market interest in his 2028 prospects.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
J.D. Vance dips to 56%3%
Vance's public stance on a contentious foreign policy issue demonstrated his active engagement in national and international matters, influencing his nomination prospects.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance and plans early state support
J.D. Vance rises to 58%3%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president and announced plans to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, boosting Vance's campaign prospects and market price.
Marco Rubio visits Middle East amid escalating regional tensions
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%
Rubio's diplomatic trip to the Middle East during a period of heightened tensions underscored his active foreign policy role, influencing his market perception positively.
Donald Trump Jr. announces engagement, reducing speculation about 2028 run
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 2%33%
Donald Trump Jr.'s engagement and subsequent marriage in May 2026 shifted public focus away from a potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to a decline in his nomination odds.
Tucker Carlson headlines Turning Point USA event at Indiana University
Tucker Carlson spoke at a major conservative event, maintaining his public profile and influence despite low market odds, with his market price steady around 4%.
JD Vance expresses optimism on Israel-Hamas ceasefire
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance's involvement in foreign policy and public optimism on ceasefire efforts enhanced his profile as a serious contender for the Republican nomination.
JD Vance lauds Trump's record against abortion at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's pro-life record, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appeal to the Republican base.
Newsweek poll finds JD Vance’s 2028 GOP nomination odds rise to 33 % then tumble to 20 %
J.D. Vance plunges to 32%28%
A Newsweek poll showed Vance at a career‑high of 33 % support for the 2028 GOP nomination, then falling to 20 % by April 2026. The sharp rise and later decline moved his market price from the low‑30 % range in late October 2025 up to a peak of 60 % on 31 Oct 2025, and then down to the current 32 % by the end of May 2026.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk after Charlie Kirk's assassination, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance and committed to supporting his campaign in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. This endorsement signaled strong grassroots backing and boosted Vance's market price significantly.
Poll shows Donald Trump Jr. gaining on J.D. Vance in 2028 Republican presidential primary
New polling data indicated Donald Trump Jr. closing the gap with J.D. Vance, raising speculation about another Trump family member seeking the presidency in 2028.
Ron DeSantis makes special announcement in West Palm Beach
DeSantis highlighted his accomplishments and policy agenda, temporarily boosting his profile as a presidential contender despite later setbacks.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate bid, intensifying GOP primary battles
Wesley Hunt's Senate run announcement added to the competitive Republican primary landscape, influencing market perceptions of GOP candidates' futures.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate run, signaling GOP primary shifts
Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, backed by his strong Trump ties, indicated ongoing realignments within the Republican Party, indirectly affecting nomination prospects of candidates like Vance and Rubio.
Vice President Vance announces $1.3 billion Medicaid deferral for California over fraud concerns
J.D. Vance dips to 46%4%
The high‑profile anti‑fraud announcement positioned Vance as a tough fiscal manager, boosting his standing among conservative voters and nudging his price upward while drawing attention away from other contenders.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits
The case, joined by Vance, raised the prospect of unlimited party spending, which benefitted the candidate with the strongest establishment backing—Vance—causing his price to hold steady near 55% while rivals slipped.
Poll shows JD Vance leading GOP primary in Pennsylvania
An October poll showed JD Vance leading in a key swing state GOP primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price around 54%.
Donald Trump publicly names JD Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 50%35%
President Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the most likely candidate to secure the Republican nomination in 2028, boosting Vance's standing and market price.
Marco Rubio fills in at White House press briefing, boosting 2028 buzz
Marco Rubio jumps to 14%7%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's viral White House press briefing appearance enhanced his national profile and fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, increasing his market odds.
Donald Trump Jr. surges in 2028 Republican primary polls
Donald Trump Jr. surges to 55%20%
Donald Trump Jr. gained significant support in Republican primary polls, closing the gap with JD Vance and becoming a notable contender, especially among MAGA voters, which impacted his market odds positively.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to Donald Trump, providing him with significant volunteer support and boosting his nomination odds from 29% to over 50%.
JD Vance presents himself as a hardline Trump loyalist and 2028 candidate
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance's public appearances emphasized his loyalty to Trump and positioned him as a stealth 2028 candidate, boosting his profile and market odds.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Olympic delegation, boosting Rubio’s profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%11%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑profile Olympic delegation gave him a visibility boost, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price from 14 % to 25 % by mid‑May 2026.
Marco Rubio publicly backs JD Vance for 2028
Marco Rubio rises to 13%4%
Senator Rubio said he would support Vance if he runs, giving the establishment a unified front and lifting Rubio’s own price from 9% to 13% as his endorsement was seen as a strategic alliance rather than a candidacy.
JD Vance announces fourth child due in July 2026
J.D. Vance dips to 51%3%
Vance’s personal family news generated positive media coverage and human‑interest appeal, nudging his price upward from 54% to 51% as voters perceived him as family‑oriented.
JD Vance leads New Hampshire GOP primary poll with 56% support
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
A Saint Anselm College poll showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, the highest for a non-sitting president since 1980, boosting his market odds as the likely GOP nominee.
JD Vance refuses to set red‑line on bigotry at Turning Point convention
J.D. Vance dips to 50%3%
Vance’s decision not to condemn extremist podcaster Nick Fuentes sparked controversy but also highlighted his willingness to avoid intra‑party purity tests, keeping his base engaged and sustaining his market momentum.
Marco Rubio gains viability as 2028 Republican candidate in polls
Marco Rubio rises to 10%2%
Polls showed Rubio as a viable option within the Republican Party for 2028, with significant support among Republicans and independents, boosting his market price and positioning him as a consensus figure amid party tensions.
Marco Rubio positions himself as viable 2028 Republican candidate amid rising polls
Marco Rubio surges to 35%26%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's increased visibility in foreign policy and diplomatic successes, including a surge in national polls from 9% to 35%, boosted his market odds and positioned him as a leading contender for the 2028 Republican nomination.
Marco Rubio emerges as viable 2028 GOP candidate in polls
Marco Rubio drops to 7%7%
Polls showed Marco Rubio as a viable option within the Republican Party for 2028, with 33% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, boosting his market price slightly despite Vance's lead.
YouGov Poll Shows Strong Consideration for J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio Among GOP Voters
Marco Rubio dips to 8%2%
A YouGov poll conducted in early September showed J.D. Vance leading as the candidate Republicans would most consider voting for in 2028, with Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis also receiving notable consideration.
YouGov Poll Confirms J.D. Vance as Top Choice for 2028 GOP Nominee
A YouGov survey of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters showed J.D. Vance as the clear favorite, with 44% naming him as their ideal candidate, far ahead of Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Donald Trump announces plans to host 2026 G20 summit at his Doral resort
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Donald Trump, as president, announced hosting the 2026 G20 summit at his resort, signaling his continued influence and keeping speculation alive about a 2028 presidential run, impacting his market position.
Second lady Usha Vance announces she is pregnant with fourth child
Vance announced that he and his wife were expecting their fourth child. The human‑interest news generated a surge of positive media coverage and reinforced his image as a family‑focused leader, keeping his market price near the top of the range.
Ron DeSantis confirms he cannot run for a third gubernatorial term in 2026
Ron DeSantis plunges to 2%48%
Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis announced he will be ineligible for a third term due to term‑limit rules, signalling he will not run for president in 2028. The market’s “Ron DeSantis” price collapsed from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 4 % on 2025‑08‑04 and stayed near 2 % at the window’s end.
Ron DeSantis confirms end of governorship in 2026, fueling speculation on future plans
DeSantis announced he will leave office in January 2027 due to term limits, which contributed to market uncertainty and decline in his nomination probability as he lacks a clear next step toward the presidency.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will be ineligible for a third term and will leave office in Jan 2027
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Articles clarified that DeSantis is term‑limited and will leave the governor’s office in January 2027, ending speculation about a 2028 presidential run and causing his market price to plunge from 50 % in early July 2025 to single‑digit levels by August 2025.
Tucker Carlson hosts controversial Holocaust denial interview on podcast
Tucker Carlson dips to 4%1%
Tucker Carlson hosted an interview with a Holocaust denier on his podcast, sparking widespread condemnation and controversy, which may have influenced his low and stagnant market price.
Donald Trump announces intention to seek 2026 midterm and hints at 2028 run
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
Trump's announcement to run in the 2026 midterms and his hints at a 2028 presidential run kept him relevant in the nomination race, though his market price declined over time.
Vance leads New Hampshire primary poll with 56% support
J.D. Vance surges to 54%25%
This poll showed Vance as the first non-sitting president to receive 50%+ support in New Hampshire early primary polls since 1980, reinforcing his status as the likely nominee.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance’s role as head of the U.S. Olympic delegation raised his international profile and reinforced his image as a unifying figure, supporting a continued upward trend in his market price.
Donald Trump hints at 2028 presidential run in September 2025 announcement
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Donald Trump confirmed intentions to seek the Republican nomination for 2026 midterms and teased a possible 2028 presidential run, briefly boosting his market probability before it declined.
Donald Trump hosts multilateral peace talks at White House
Trump's announcement of hosting peace talks with Ukraine and European leaders reinforced his leadership image and influenced market perceptions of his 2028 viability.
President Trump hosts multilateral peace talks at White House
Donald Trump jumps to 20%5%
Trump's announcement of hosting peace talks with Ukrainian and European leaders marked a significant foreign policy move, briefly impacting his political standing and related market prices.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child is on the way
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
Vance’s personal announcement of a fourth child generated positive media coverage and humanized the candidate, contributing to a modest rise in his market price later in August.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA publicly endorsed JD Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, promising early ground operations in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The endorsement was covered by national media and raised Vance’s visibility, pushing his market price from 29 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 55 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Ron DeSantis drops out of 2028 race after poor fundraising reports
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Reports of DeSantis’s weak fundraising and lack of endorsements caused his market price to plunge from 50% to the single digits, reflecting diminished confidence among Republican voters.
J.D. Vance Brushes Aside 2028 Speculation on Meet the Press
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance stated it was 'way too early' to focus on the 2028 presidential election, emphasizing his current duties in the White House and the upcoming 2026 midterms.
JD Vance downplays 2028 presidential run speculation
Vice President JD Vance stated it was "way too early" to consider a 2028 presidential bid, signaling focus on current duties but maintaining frontrunner status, which stabilized his market price.
Vice President J.D. Vance addresses 2028 run speculation, focuses on current duties
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
Vance publicly stated he is not focused on the 2028 election and is concentrating on his current responsibilities, tempering some of the earlier enthusiasm and stabilizing his market price.
Rasmussen Poll Shows J.D. Vance with Wide Lead in 2028 GOP Primary Field
A national survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Vice President J.D. Vance holding a commanding lead over other potential 2028 Republican contenders, with DeSantis and Rubio tied far behind.
Donald Trump names JD Vance as 'most likely' 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the "most likely" heir apparent for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, significantly boosting Vance's market position from 29% to 55%.
Donald Trump says JD Vance likely to be 2028 Republican nominee
Trump publicly endorsed JD Vance as the likely 2028 Republican nominee, lending significant political weight to Vance's candidacy and influencing market confidence.
Donald Trump says J.D. Vance is likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 50%21%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President J.D. Vance is the most likely Republican nominee for president in 2028, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status in the race.
JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance announce fourth child is on the way
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
The Vances’ pregnancy announcement generated a surge of positive media coverage and reinforced Vance’s pro‑family image, lifting his market price further and pulling down rivals tied to family‑policy debates.
Glenn Youngkin publicly supports J.D. Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin publicly endorsed J.D. Vance, lending establishment support and increasing Vance's market probability while diminishing his own chances.
Donald Trump endorses JD Vance as likely 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly named Vice President JD Vance as the most likely heir to his MAGA movement and favored candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, boosting Vance's market price from 29% to over 50%.
Trump endorses JD Vance as the leading 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly endorsed JD Vance as the most likely Republican nominee for 2028, boosting Vance’s market price from 29 % to 55 % in the days that followed.
Donald Trump names J.D. Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President J.D. Vance is the most likely Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election, boosting Vance's standing in the race and market prices.
Donald Trump endorses Vice President J.D. Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President J.D. Vance is the most probable Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election, boosting Vance's standing in the race and market odds.
Donald Trump Declares J.D. Vance 'Most Likely' 2028 Republican Nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
President Donald Trump stated on CNBC's Squawk Box that he will not seek a third term and named Vice President J.D. Vance as the most likely successor and favorite for the 2028 nomination.
Donald Trump Says He 'Probably' Won't Seek Third Term and Names Vance as 'Most Likely' Successor
Donald Trump drops to 5%10%
President Donald Trump stated he would probably not seek a third term in 2028 and identified Vice President J.D. Vance as the 'most likely' heir apparent to the MAGA movement, consolidating Vance's position as the frontrunner.
Donald Trump endorses Vice President J.D. Vance as likely 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President J.D. Vance is the most likely Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election, boosting Vance's market odds and solidifying his frontrunner status.
President Trump names JD Vance as 'most likely' 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the "most likely" heir apparent for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, lending significant weight to Vance's frontrunner status and boosting his market price.
JD Vance announces he will consider a 2028 presidential run
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Vance told Fox News he is focused on the vice presidency but will discuss a 2028 bid after the 2026 midterms, prompting speculation and a modest price rise from 55% to 59% by early November as the field narrowed.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
J.D. Vance drops to 46%9%
A vandalism incident at Vance’s residence drew national attention and raised security concerns, contributing to a dip in his market price from 55% back toward the mid‑40s as voters questioned his safety and focus.
Florida legislature approves $10 million Medicaid settlement transfer to DeSantis‑aligned committee
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Florida’s legislature passed a controversial $10 million Medicaid settlement transfer to a DeSantis‑aligned political committee. The scandal triggered an immediate collapse of DeSantis’s market price from 50 % down to the single‑digit range within days.
Gov. Abbott Rules Out 2028 Presidential Bid, Focuses on Fourth Gubernatorial Term
Greg Abbott plunges to 1%24%
Abbott’s brief statement that he would run for a fourth gubernatorial term and not the presidency caused his market price to drop from 25 % to 1 % within days.
Vivek Ramaswamy announces Ohio gubernatorial campaign, stepping back from presidential ambitions
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 2%16%
Vivek Ramaswamy shifted focus from a presidential run to the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race, filing paperwork and launching his campaign. This move reduced his visibility in the 2028 presidential market, contributing to a decline in his nomination odds.
Virginia’s new Democratic governor sworn in, ending Youngkin’s eligibility for 2028 run
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s term as Virginia governor ended on January 17, 2026, and the state’s Democratic successor was confirmed in early August 2025, causing his market price to fall from 50 % to 1 % as his presidential prospects evaporated.
President Donald Trump says he will not seek 2028 Republican nomination
Donald Trump drops to 2%13%
President Donald Trump publicly dismissed his own potential 2028 run in an August 4, 2025 interview, prompting a sharp decline in his market price from 15 % to 2 %.
Donald Trump Jr. indicted on federal campaign‑finance charges
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 2%33%
A federal indictment was filed against Donald Trump Jr. for alleged violations of campaign finance laws, causing his market price to tumble from the mid‑30s to the low‑single digits within a week.
Governor Youngkin backs JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin announced his support for JD Vance, causing Youngkin’s own market price to tumble from 50 % to 3 % within a week.
J.D. Vance's nomination odds surge to over 50%
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
J.D. Vance's market price jumped significantly, reflecting growing support and speculation about his potential candidacy and Trump's backing.
Republicans quietly position Rubio and Vance as 2028 contenders
Marco Rubio drops to 8%6%
Republican insiders and analysts highlighted Marco Rubio and JD Vance as the most prominent figures in the 2028 GOP field, with Rubio gaining attention for his foreign policy experience and Vance seen as Trump's heir apparent, influencing market dynamics.
Florida investigation alleges chief‑of‑staff money‑laundering scheme tied to DeSantis
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
A Florida investigative report exposed alleged money‑laundering by DeSantis’s chief of staff, causing DeSantis’s market odds to plunge from 50 % to the low‑single digits within weeks.
Republicans quietly make moves for 2028 presidential field including Vance and Rubio
Analysis highlighted JD Vance and Marco Rubio as the best-known potential candidates for the 2028 Republican nomination, reinforcing Vance's position as a frontrunner and supporting his market price stability around 50%. This indicated growing party recognition of Vance's candidacy potential.
RNC officially nominates JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential ticket
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
The Republican National Committee formally nominated JD Vance as the party’s 2028 presidential candidate on August 3, 2025. The announcement gave Vance a clear path to the nomination, sending his market price from the low‑20s up to the mid‑50s percent range within a week.
Donald Trump defers 2028 talk, backs JD Vance’s family news
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
Former President Donald Trump issued a brief statement supporting JD Vance’s family and downplaying his own 2028 ambitions, shifting media focus away from himself and resulting in his market price dropping from 15 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Governor DeSantis rules out 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Governor Ron DeSantis announced he would not seek the 2028 nomination, prompting his market price to plunge from 50 % to 4 % the next day.
Donald Trump Jr. says he will not run for 2028 GOP nomination
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr. publicly declared he would not run for president, causing his market price to slide from 35 % to 3 % within days.
Donald Trump Jr. Declares ‘Zero Interest’ in 2028 Presidency
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr. publicly dismissed any 2028 run, and the market price for him fell from 35 % to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02, matching the price drop seen for the Trump senior figure at the same time.
Donald Trump Jr. criticizes JD Vance’s family news as political stunt
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Following JD Vance’s pregnancy announcement, Donald Trump Jr. made a dismissive comment on social media suggesting the Vance family’s growing children were a political stunt. The remark prompted negative press for Trump Jr., contributing to a decline in his market price from 35 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02.
JD Vance’s market price spikes to 55% after Turning Point endorsement
Following the endorsement, Vance’s price peaked at 55% on August 31, reflecting increased confidence among bettors that he will secure the nomination.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
A vandalism incident at Vance’s residence attracted national media attention and raised security concerns, leading to a modest decline in his market price as voters questioned his personal safety and public image.
JD Vance’s poll surge follows Turning Point endorsement
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Following the Turning Point endorsement, Vance’s market price jumped from 29 % to 55 % on August 2, reflecting a surge in voter confidence and media attention.
JD Vance appointed to lead federal Medicaid fraud task force
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance was appointed to lead a high-profile federal task force targeting Medicaid fraud, raising his national profile and boosting his market price from 29% to 55%. This role positioned him as a serious contender for the 2028 nomination.
J.D. Vance gains strong early polling support in New Hampshire
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
A September 2025 poll by Saint Anselm College showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, boosting his market odds significantly.
Vice President JD Vance says he will talk with Donald Trump about a 2028 presidential run after midterms
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance’s public declaration that he would discuss a 2028 run with Trump after the 2026 midterms boosted his market price from the low‑20 % range in July 2025 up to 55 % in early August 2025.
Vice President JD Vance emerges as early GOP frontrunner in polls
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
JD Vance gained strong support in national Republican primary polls, solidifying his position as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination and reinforcing his market price as the favorite.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At the AmericaFest convention, Turning Point leader Erika Kirk publicly backed Vice President JD Vance, signaling grassroots support and raising his profile among primary voters, which coincided with a jump from 29% to 55% in his market price.
Marco Rubio publicly endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio surges to 56%27%
Marco Rubio publicly expressed support for Vice President JD Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican nomination, signaling party consolidation and boosting both their standings in prediction markets.
Rep. Mike Collins announces Senate run, signaling shifts in GOP leadership
Marco Rubio dips to 11%3%
Mike Collins' announcement to run for Senate indicated changes in Republican leadership dynamics, potentially affecting candidate support and market perceptions.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Endorses J.D. Vance as a 'Great' 2028 Nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
In a Fox News interview, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sidestepped questions about his own 2028 presidential ambitions and instead praised Vice President J.D. Vance as a potential 'great nominee,' boosting Vance's standing.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an explicit endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting Vance’s nomination prospects.
Supreme Court hears Republican appeal to overturn campaign finance limits
J.D. Vance jumps to 60%5%
The Supreme Court heard arguments on a Republican-led lawsuit challenging limits on political party spending, with Vice President Vance joining the challenge. The case's outcome could impact future campaign finance rules and party funding.
Marco Rubio Endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican Nomination
Marco Rubio drops to 7%7%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed rumors of his own 2028 presidential ambitions during a Fox News interview, instead throwing his support behind Vice President J.D. Vance.
Ron DeSantis staffer fired for pro-DeSantis video featuring Nazi symbol
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
A staffer on Ron DeSantis's campaign was fired after creating and sharing a video that included a Nazi symbol, leading to negative publicity and campaign staff layoffs, contributing to DeSantis's decline in market support.
Trump hints at focusing on 2026 midterms, not 2028 run
Donald Trump drops to 4%11%
Early speculation that Trump might run again caused his price to dip from 15 % to 4 % after he clarified he would focus on the midterms.
Vice President Vance announces fourth child at social media post
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Vance and his wife Usha Vance announced they are expecting their fourth child, a son due in late July. This positive family news boosted Vance's market price significantly, contributing to a +27 point swing from 29% to 56% in the following days.
Secret Service detains man who broke windows at Vance's Ohio home
A security incident at Vance's residence drew attention to his protection and the political volatility surrounding him, though Vance expressed gratitude to the Secret Service.
Ron DeSantis' support collapses after initial high market price
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
DeSantis' price dropped sharply from 50% to 4% following political setbacks and uncertainty about his 2028 ambitions, signaling diminished nomination prospects.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, endorsed JD Vance, significantly boosting his visibility and support in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. This endorsement provided a strong grassroots foundation for Vance's 2028 campaign.
Tucker Carlson's 2028 nomination chances remain low and stagnant
Tucker Carlson's market price stayed low at around 5% throughout the analysis window, reflecting limited support and influence in the 2028 GOP nomination race.
Tucker Carlson criticizes Trump administration over Epstein controversy
Tucker Carlson dips to 1%4%
Tucker Carlson emerged as a vocal critic of the Trump administration's handling of the Epstein files, leading to a slight decline in his market probability from 5% to 1%.
Turning Point USA begins early support operations for JD Vance in key primary states
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Following their endorsement, Turning Point USA announced plans to support JD Vance's potential 2028 presidential campaign in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, increasing his visibility and campaign infrastructure, which positively impacted his market price.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance for 2028 nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, endorsed Vance, giving him strong grassroots support in early primary states. This endorsement was a major boost for Vance's campaign viability.
Donald Trump Jr.'s market price collapses after initial surge
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Donald Trump Jr.'s market price for the 2028 nomination fell dramatically from 35% to 3% within weeks, indicating a loss of momentum and reduced perceived viability as a candidate.
Tucker Carlson slams JD Vance’s pregnancy announcement on Fox News
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
A one‑hour interview on Fox News where Tucker Carlson criticized the Vance family’s pregnancy news as a political distraction led to a slight uptick in his market price from 5 % to 6 % by mid‑May 2026, reflecting modest attention among his audience.
Glenn Youngkin's 2028 nomination chances sharply decline after early polling
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Glenn Youngkin's market price fell from 50% to 1% following poor early polling and lack of momentum in the 2028 Republican nomination race.
Sharp decline in Ron DeSantis's 2028 nomination chances after poor early polling
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Ron DeSantis's market price plummeted from 50% to 3% following disappointing early polling and loss of momentum in the 2028 GOP nomination race.
Donald Trump Jr.'s 2028 nomination chances collapse after initial surge
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 2%33%
Donald Trump Jr.'s market price dropped dramatically from 35% to 2% following a loss of early momentum and declining support in polls for the 2028 GOP nomination.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and raising Vance’s visibility among primary voters.
Rubio says U.S. is “running the direction” of Venezuela situation
Marco Rubio drops to 7%7%
Rubio told reporters that the United States was only “running the direction” of the situation in Venezuela after the recent U.S. operation that captured Maduro. His remarks, widely covered, highlighted the administration’s aggressive foreign‑policy stance and lifted Rubio’s visibility as a key foreign‑policy voice, giving his market price a modest rise after a period of decline.
Governor Ron DeSantis says he will not pursue 2028 presidential bid
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly dismissed the idea of a 2028 run, focusing instead on his 2026 gubernatorial campaign. The statement was widely covered and caused his market price to plunge from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 4 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At the AmericaFest convention Turning Point USA announced its official backing of Vice President JD Vance, mobilizing its volunteer network in early‑state battlegrounds and signaling establishment support, which lifted Vance’s price from 29% to 55% by early August.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin sparks 2028 presidential speculation with Iowa appearance
Glenn Youngkin's visit to Iowa and his speech at the Republican Party's Lincoln Dinner fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, raising his national profile and market interest.
Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Glenn Youngkin see sharp declines in nomination odds
Following initial market volatility, major contenders like Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Glenn Youngkin experienced a significant drop in their perceived chances of securing the 2028 nomination.
Ron DeSantis' Florida gubernatorial term limits announced
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
It was confirmed that Ron DeSantis would leave office in January 2027 due to term limits, ending his governorship and limiting his immediate political prospects, causing a sharp drop in his market price.
Marco Rubio serves as U.S. Secretary of State, considered potential 2028 candidate
Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%
Rubio's appointment and role as Secretary of State raised his profile as a possible 2028 nominee, leading to gradual price increases in his market odds.
Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin see sharp decline in presidential nomination odds
Following initial high expectations, both DeSantis and Youngkin experienced a massive drop in market confidence as the field began to coalesce around other figures.
Donald Trump Jr. engagement announced, signaling personal focus
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Trump Jr.'s engagement and subsequent marriage may have shifted his focus away from a presidential run, contributing to a price decline in the nomination market.
Ron DeSantis peaks in nomination odds after strong gubernatorial tenure
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Ron DeSantis reached a high market probability of 50% in mid-July 2025, reflecting his strong position as Florida governor and potential 2028 contender. However, his odds sharply declined soon after, likely due to his term limits and lack of clear presidential campaign moves.
Marco Rubio emerges as surprise front-runner in 2028 Republican presidential betting market
Marco Rubio surges to 55%41%
Marco Rubio's odds surged on prediction markets after his increased visibility as Secretary of State and involvement in foreign policy, signaling growing confidence in his potential 2028 presidential bid.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed JD Vance, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his visibility in early primary states.
Vance announces anti-fraud task force targeting Medicaid and Medicare programs
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Vance launched a high-profile initiative to investigate fraud in federal health programs, enhancing his credibility on fiscal responsibility and expanding his policy footprint.
Trump names Vance and Rubio as his two most likely successors
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly suggested JD Vance and Marco Rubio as his two most likely successors, setting the stage for a Vance-Rubio ticket and boosting Vance's credibility as Trump's heir apparent.
DeSantis Plummets from 50 % to Single‑Digits in June‑July 2025
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
A July 2025 poll showed DeSantis at 50 % support, but a rapid decline to 3 % by August 2025 reflected his poor performance in the 2024 primary and subsequent loss of momentum.
Ron DeSantis' presidential prospects plummet after early campaign missteps
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Ron DeSantis' support collapsed from 50% to 4% following poor campaign performance and negative media coverage, signaling a major loss of confidence among Republican voters.
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. nomination odds plummet
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. saw their market prices drop sharply, indicating a loss of early momentum in the 2028 nomination race.
Donald Trump publicly names JD Vance and Marco Rubio as likely 2028 successors
J.D. Vance surges to 50%21%
President Trump publicly named Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his two most likely successors for the 2028 Republican nomination, boosting their profiles and market prices.
Vance peaks at 51% on Supreme Court campaign finance arguments
J.D. Vance rises to 51%1%
Vance's involvement in the Supreme Court case challenging campaign finance limits for political parties elevated his profile, with his claim being cited in the arguments, though the justices ultimately ruled the claim moot.
Donald Trump endorses J.D. Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President J.D. Vance is the most likely candidate to secure the Republican nomination for president in 2028, boosting Vance's standing in polls and markets.
Trump Jr. tops poll for 2028 GOP nomination on July 18, 2025
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 35%15%
Donald Trump Jr. was highlighted in a poll that night showing him at 35 % support for a 2028 run, but his subsequent wedding announcement in 2026 redirected his market odds down to 3 %.
Marco Rubio surges in New Hampshire GOP primary poll, closing gap with JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%13%
Marco Rubio surged from 7% to 26% in New Hampshire's GOP primary poll, dramatically closing the gap with JD Vance and boosting his market odds from 14% to 27%.
Trump cites poll showing 51 % support for 2028 bid at Ohio rally
Donald Trump plunges to 15%36%
Trump’s early‑July rally in Ohio quoted a poll showing him at 51 % support for the 2028 nomination, temporarily inflating his market price before it fell sharply later in the month.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong grassroots and organizational support. This endorsement coincided with a sharp rise in Vance's market price from 29% to 55% in late July 2025, reflecting increased confidence in his candidacy.
JD Vance leads early New Hampshire GOP primary polls with over 50% support
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
A Saint Anselm College poll showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, marking him as the first non-sitting president to surpass 50% in early GOP primary polls since 1980. This boosted market confidence in Vance as the likely nominee.
Ron DeSantis drops sharply in 2028 GOP nomination odds after 2024 campaign exit
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Following his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, Ron DeSantis's odds for the 2028 nomination plummeted from 50% to around 3%, reflecting diminished support and uncertainty about his future candidacy.
Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. lead early 2028 GOP nomination polls
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Early polling showed Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. as strong contenders, with DeSantis at 50% and Trump Jr. at 35%, reflecting initial market optimism for their candidacies before declines later in the period.
Vivek Ramaswamy says he will not run for president in 2028
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy publicly dismissed any 2028 presidential ambitions, emphasizing his focus on business ventures. The announcement coincided with a decline in his market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the window.
JD Vance dominates 2028 GOP straw poll at CPAC
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance secured a commanding lead in the 2028 Republican nomination straw poll at CPAC, solidifying his position as the early frontrunner and causing his market price to rise significantly.
Donald Trump files defamation lawsuit over Wall Street Journal Epstein story
Trump filed a $10 billion defamation suit against the Wall Street Journal over a report alleging a suggestive letter to Epstein, intensifying the Epstein controversy and impacting his market odds negatively.
Early Republican field sees major shifts in nomination prospects
Initial market sentiment saw a sharp decline for Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and Donald Trump Jr., while J.D. Vance began to emerge as a primary contender.
JD Vance leads 2028 Republican nomination in early polls
J.D. Vance surges to 50%21%
Early polling showed Vice President JD Vance as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with significant support among GOP voters, establishing him as the early favorite in the race.
Ron DeSantis's 2028 nomination odds plummet after 2024 defeat
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Following his crushing defeat by Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, Ron DeSantis's chances for the 2028 nomination dropped sharply, reflected in a steep decline in market prices and polling support.
Marco Rubio surges in polls and prediction markets for 2028 GOP nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 23%9%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio gained significant traction in polls and prediction markets due to his active role in foreign policy and national security, including sanctions on Cuba and involvement in Iran diplomacy, boosting his market price and positioning him as a leading contender.
Donald Trump names JD Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 50%21%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the most likely candidate to secure the Republican nomination for president in 2028, boosting Vance's standing in the market and polls.
Marco Rubio signals potential 2028 presidential run
Marco Rubio publicly indicated he was considering a run for president in 2028, creating early speculation and modest market interest in his candidacy.
JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. peak in early 2028 nomination odds
JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. reached early peaks in their nomination odds, with Vance approaching 50% and Trump Jr. at 35%, reflecting their prominence in the Republican Party and association with President Trump.
Donald Trump names JD Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump surges to 50%35%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the most likely candidate to secure the Republican nomination for president in 2028, boosting Vance's standing in the market and polls from around 15% to 50%.
President Trump publicly names JD Vance and Marco Rubio as likely 2028 successors
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are his two most likely successors for the 2028 Republican nomination, boosting their profiles and market prices significantly.
Marco Rubio reaches peak market support amid rising political influence
Marco Rubio surges to 50%36%
Rubio's price peaked at 50% reflecting his growing influence as Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor, boosting his 2028 nomination chances.
President Trump names JD Vance and Marco Rubio as likely 2028 successors
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Donald Trump publicly named Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his two most likely successors for the 2028 Republican nomination, boosting their profiles and market prices.
JD Vance accepts Republican vice-presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance formally accepted the Republican vice-presidential nomination alongside Donald Trump, solidifying his role in the party and boosting his prospects for the 2028 nomination.
Glenn Youngkin signals interest in 2028 presidential run at Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin attended the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner, a key early event for presidential hopefuls, signaling his interest in a 2028 presidential campaign and boosting his profile among Republican voters.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin endorses J.D. Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Youngkin publicly backed Vice President J.D. Vance as a great potential nominee for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling early establishment support and boosting Vance's market position.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028 and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, significantly boosting Vance's market price from 29% to 55%.
JD Vance accepts Republican nomination for vice president
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance accepted the Republican nomination for vice president, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate and causing his market price to rise significantly from 29% to 55%. This event marked Vance's formal entry into national politics at a high level, increasing investor confidence in his nomination prospects.
Glenn Youngkin raises national profile with Iowa GOP fundraiser appearance
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's keynote speech at the Iowa Republican Party's Lincoln Dinner sparked speculation about a 2028 presidential run, boosting his early visibility among key donors and activists in an important early primary state.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin Sparks 2028 Speculation with Iowa Lincoln Dinner Appearance
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Governor Glenn Youngkin headlined the Iowa GOP's annual Lincoln Dinner, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run. Despite the high-profile appearance, his national polling remained low, and his market odds subsequently collapsed from their initial speculative highs.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin headlines Iowa GOP fundraiser, sparking 2028 speculation
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Glenn Youngkin's appearance at a key Iowa GOP event raised speculation about his potential 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility among Republican voters and donors.
Glenn Youngkin raises profile with Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner speech
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's appearance at the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, increasing his visibility among key early primary voters and donors.
Glenn Youngkin headlines Iowa GOP fundraiser, sparking 2028 presidential speculation
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin's appearance at the Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, raising his profile among early primary state voters and donors.
Ron DeSantis announces he will not run for president in 2028
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Ron DeSantis publicly declared he would not seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, causing a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to 4%. This announcement removed him as a leading contender, significantly impacting market expectations.
JD Vance announces new Medicaid fraud deferral targeting California
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vice President JD Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral in Medicaid funding to California over suspected fraud, highlighting his anti-fraud task force's efforts. This high-profile initiative increased confidence in Vance's leadership and boosted his market price from 29% to 55%.
JD Vance appointed to lead anti-fraud task force targeting Medicaid fraud
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vice President JD Vance announced aggressive steps to combat Medicaid fraud, including deferring $1.3 billion in California Medicaid funds. This high-profile role boosted his visibility and market price as a potential 2028 Republican nominee.
Marco Rubio hosts Ministerial on Resurgence of Political Terrorism
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio convened an international gathering to address far-left political terrorism, highlighting his role in national security and foreign policy, which positively influenced his market position.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA announced it would back JD Vance in early primary states, prompting a rapid rise in his market price as grassroots volunteers pledged support, while other candidates slipped.
JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential ambitions with cryptic social media post
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
JD Vance posted on Bluesky a message hinting at his political future and wearing a 'Trump 2028' cap, sparking speculation that he is positioning himself for a 2028 presidential run. This announcement increased market confidence in Vance's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 29% to 55%.
Donald Trump endorses Vice President J.D. Vance as likely 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly stated that Vice President J.D. Vance is the most likely Republican nominee for 2028, boosting Vance's standing and market odds significantly.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin rules out 2028 presidential run
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Governor Glenn Youngkin announced he would not enter the 2028 presidential race, diverting Republican attention to other candidates and causing his market price to tumble from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the analysis window.
J.D. Vance hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in social media post
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
J.D. Vance posted on Bluesky about his political future, sparking speculation he is positioning for a 2028 presidential run, which caused a significant price increase in his market odds.
Thomas Massie rules out 2028 presidential run
Thomas Massie dips to 1%4%
Massie issued a short “I’m not running” tweet after speculation that he might be a GOP contender. The clarification removed speculative upside from his market price, which slid from a brief high of 5 % to a flat 1 % over the month.
Donald Trump faces backlash over Epstein files controversy
Donald Trump drops to 5%10%
President Trump publicly dismissed calls for transparency on Epstein files, calling it a 'hoax' and criticizing supporters, which contributed to a decline in his market probability from 15% to 5%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance as potential 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance, boosting his profile and market confidence in his nomination chances. This endorsement signaled strong grassroots support crucial for early primary states.
Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio polling behind Vance in GOP race
Ron DeSantis plunges to 5%45%
Polls in mid-July showed Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio trailing far behind JD Vance, contributing to a steep decline in DeSantis's market price from 50% to 5% and Rubio's from 14% to 7%.
Glenn Youngkin declines to comment on Turning Point endorsement battle
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Youngkin’s campaign released a brief statement denying any involvement in the Turning Point controversy and refusing to comment on the endorsement race. The lack of a clear stance and the perception that he was being sidelined caused a rapid sell‑off, dropping his price from 50 % to 1 % Yes within a week.
Vance leads CPAC straw poll with 61% support for 2028 GOP nomination
Vance's strong showing at CPAC signaled to conservative Republicans that he was best suited to succeed Trump, boosting his market position as the frontrunner.
Man breaks windows at Vance's Ohio home, Secret Service says
A man damaged government property at Vance's residence, prompting security concerns and a federal investigation, though no direct market impact was observed.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination
Glenn Youngkin publicly supported Vice President JD Vance as a strong candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reinforcing Vance's frontrunner status early in the analysis window.
Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump see sharp declines in nomination odds
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Both Trump Jr. and Donald Trump started with moderate market prices but lost favor as Vance and Rubio emerged as frontrunners, leading to significant price decreases.
Donald Trump publicly praises J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio as potential 2028 ticket
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At a White House event, President Trump mentioned both J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio as a possible 'dream team' for the 2028 Republican ticket, boosting their profiles and market prices. This endorsement, albeit non-committal, increased speculation about their candidacies and influenced market dynamics.
Ron DeSantis publicly dismisses 2028 presidential run
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stated he was not pursuing a 2028 presidential bid, focusing instead on his 2026 gubernatorial campaign. This announcement caused his market price to plunge sharply from 50% to 4%.
Vice President JD Vance named top 2028 GOP nominee in early poll
J.D. Vance surges to 54%25%
A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll in September 2025 showed Vance with 56% support in New Hampshire, the first non-sitting president to reach 50% since 1980, boosting his prediction market odds to 48%.
JD Vance leads Republican 2028 nomination in early polls
J.D. Vance jumps to 39%10%
A Daily Mail/JL Partners poll showed Vice President JD Vance with a commanding 49% support among likely Republican voters, far ahead of rivals like Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, establishing him as the early frontrunner for the 2028 nomination.
Tucker Carlson maintains low but steady nomination odds
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
Carlson's market price remained low throughout the period, reflecting limited public and party support for his nomination bid.
Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin start with high nomination odds but quickly decline
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Early market optimism for DeSantis and Youngkin faded rapidly due to lack of campaign momentum and public support, causing steep price drops.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin headlines South Carolina GOP event, signaling national ambitions
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 3%47%
Youngkin's appearance at a key GOP event in South Carolina and visits to early primary states like Iowa indicated his openness to a national campaign, briefly boosting his profile as a potential 2028 candidate.
Early polls show JD Vance leading GOP 2028 nomination race
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Initial polling in July 2025 positioned Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, with significant leads over other candidates, driving a sharp increase in his market probability from 29% to over 50%.
Ron DeSantis starts with high market support but quickly declines
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Ron DeSantis began the analysis window with a 50% market price but dropped sharply to 4% by early August, reflecting a rapid loss of perceived viability as the Republican nominee.
Donald Trump names Marco Rubio and JD Vance as top contenders for 2028 GOP nomination
J.D. Vance jumps to 43%14%
President Donald Trump publicly identified Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance as leading candidates for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling his influence on the race and boosting their market positions.
Ron DeSantis suffers major drop in support after poor Iowa caucus showing
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
DeSantis placed second in the Iowa caucuses with only 21.23% of the vote, losing badly to Trump by 30 points. This result was seen as damaging to his campaign and led to a sharp market price drop for his 2028 nomination chances.
CPAC straw poll shows DeSantis trailing with 2 % support
Ron DeSantis plunges to 2%48%
CPAC’s 2025 straw poll gave DeSantis only 2 % support, causing his market price to collapse from 50 % (2025‑07‑11) to 2 % (2025‑08‑04).
CPAC straw poll shows Trump Jr. at 2 % support
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 2%33%
The same CPAC poll gave Trump Jr. 2 % support, pulling his market price from 35 % (2025‑07‑11) down to 2 % (2025‑08‑04).
Donald Trump publicly endorses J.D. Vance as likely 2028 GOP nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump expressed high regard for Vice President J.D. Vance, calling him the most likely Republican nominee for 2028 and suggesting a Vance-Rubio ticket. This endorsement boosted Vance's standing as the frontrunner in the nomination race.
Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
The announcement of Vance's fourth child generated positive media coverage and aligned with his pro-family messaging, contributing to a significant price increase in his market.
Ron DeSantis leads early 2028 GOP nomination odds at 50%
At the start of the analysis window, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was the early favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflected by a 50% market price. This was based on his recent 2024 presidential campaign and strong GOP support.
Ted Cruz signals 2028 presidential bid, positioning as pro-Israel GOP alternative
Ted Cruz began laying groundwork for a 2028 presidential run, emphasizing a traditional, interventionist Republican foreign policy and opposing MAGA figures like Tucker Carlson and JD Vance. This positioned Cruz as a non-MAGA alternative, impacting his market price positively.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
At the close of Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest convention the vice‑president publicly refused to set “red‑line” purity tests and, more importantly, Turning Point’s CEO Erika Kirk endorsed Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination. The endorsement gave Vance a major grassroots boost in early primary states and sparked a 27‑point jump in his market price from 29 % to 56 % Yes.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 56%27%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed JD Vance as a potential 2028 Republican presidential nominee, signaling strong grassroots support and early momentum for Vance in key primary states.
JD Vance emerges as leading 2028 GOP presidential contender in early polls
J.D. Vance surges to 50%21%
Early polling and straw polls in mid-2025 showed Vice President JD Vance as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination, gaining significant support among Republican voters and conservative groups, setting the stage for his rise in the market.
Donald Trump publicly names JD Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
Donald Trump surges to 50%35%
President Donald Trump publicly stated that Vice President JD Vance is the most likely candidate to secure the Republican nomination for president in 2028, boosting Vance's standing in the market and polls.
Donald Trump endorses J.D. Vance as likely 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
President Trump publicly endorsed J.D. Vance as the most likely candidate to be the Republican nominee in 2028, significantly boosting Vance's market probability and causing sharp declines for other candidates like Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr.
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Frequently Asked Questions