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Politics

Politics

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Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

$252m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

January 11

4%

January 12

12%

January 11

4%

January 12

12%

$9m Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 card icon

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

53%

Marco Rubio

13%

J.D. Vance

53%

Marco Rubio

13%

$172m Vol.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

45%

Kevin Hassett

33%

Kevin Warsh

45%

Kevin Hassett

33%

$169m Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets January 6 - January 13, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 6 - January 13, 2026?

460-479

<1%

480-499

<1%

460-479

<1%

480-499

<1%

$10m Vol.

repeat-3weekly
Elon Musk # tweets January 13 - January 20, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 13 - January 20, 2026?

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

$2m Vol.

repeat-3weekly
Another US strike on Venezuela on...? card icon

Another US strike on Venezuela on...?

January 9

<1%

January 10

<1%

January 9

<1%

January 10

<1%

$3m Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028 card icon

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

28%

Gavin Newsom

20%

JD Vance

28%

Gavin Newsom

20%

$181m Vol.

US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

January 11

4%

January 12

13%

January 11

4%

January 12

13%

$2m Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

34%

chance

$7m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

15%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026?

200-219

<1%

220-239

<1%

200-219

<1%

220-239

<1%

$4m Vol.

repeat-3weekly
Elon Musk # tweets January 10 - January 12, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 10 - January 12, 2026?

90-114

2%

115-139

17%

90-114

2%

115-139

17%

$893k Vol.

repeat-3daily
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

40%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3daily
Will Tim Walz resign by...? card icon

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

January 31

3%

June 30

14%

January 31

3%

June 30

14%

$1m Vol.

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...? card icon

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?

January 16

3%

January 31

11%

January 16

3%

January 31

11%

$4m Vol.