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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu 41%
Naftali Bennett 35%
Gadi Eizenkot 13.4%
Avigdor Lieberman 5.7%
$8,328,432 Vol.
$8,328,432 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu
$728,061 Vol.
41%
Naftali Bennett
$1,213,433 Vol.
35%
Gadi Eizenkot
$700,007 Vol.
13%
Avigdor Lieberman
$625,118 Vol.
6%
Yair Lapid
$457,108 Vol.
1%
Yariv Levin
$429,844 Vol.
1%
Itamar Ben Gvir
$286,321 Vol.
1%
Ayelet Shaked
$448,201 Vol.
<1%
Amir Ohana
$227,080 Vol.
<1%
Yossi Cohen
$585,305 Vol.
<1%
Benny Gantz
$334,197 Vol.
<1%
Israel Katz
$114,649 Vol.
<1%
Gideon Sa’ar
$620,513 Vol.
<1%
Moshe Feiglin
$486,498 Vol.
<1%
Yair Golan
$440,578 Vol.
<1%
Yoaz Hendel
$405,042 Vol.
<1%
Nir Barkat
$226,502 Vol.
<1%
Benjamin Netanyahu 41%
Naftali Bennett 35%
Gadi Eizenkot 13.4%
Avigdor Lieberman 5.7%
$8,328,432 Vol.
$8,328,432 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu
$728,061 Vol.
41%
Naftali Bennett
$1,213,433 Vol.
35%
Gadi Eizenkot
$700,007 Vol.
13%
Avigdor Lieberman
$625,118 Vol.
6%
Yair Lapid
$457,108 Vol.
1%
Yariv Levin
$429,844 Vol.
1%
Itamar Ben Gvir
$286,321 Vol.
1%
Ayelet Shaked
$448,201 Vol.
<1%
Amir Ohana
$227,080 Vol.
<1%
Yossi Cohen
$585,305 Vol.
<1%
Benny Gantz
$334,197 Vol.
<1%
Israel Katz
$114,649 Vol.
<1%
Gideon Sa’ar
$620,513 Vol.
<1%
Moshe Feiglin
$486,498 Vol.
<1%
Yair Golan
$440,578 Vol.
<1%
Yoaz Hendel
$405,042 Vol.
<1%
Nir Barkat
$226,502 Vol.
<1%
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a razor-thin contest for Israel's next prime minister after the Knesset election by October 27, 2026, with trader consensus pricing incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu at 40.5% implied probability ahead of Naftali Bennett's 34.5%, driven by the April 26 announcement of Bennett's "Together" alliance with Yair Lapid that consolidated opposition votes to 25-26 seats in May surveys like Kantar (May 13) and Midgam (May 7), tying or edging Likud's coalition bloc around 50-51 seats. Proportional representation demands coalition negotiations post-election, where Netanyahu's loyal Likud-Shas-Otzma base provides incumbency edge despite October 7 accountability demands, while Bennett attracts center-right voters wary of far-right partners. Gadi Eisenkot trails at 13.4% on security credentials via Yashar. Separation could arise from Eisenkot joining Together, snap election triggers amid coalition strains after Knesset recess, or Gaza-Hezbollah de-escalation boosting Netanyahu's record.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent polls show a razor-thin contest for Israel's next prime minister after the Knesset election by October 27, 2026, with trader consensus pricing incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu at 40.5% implied probability ahead of Naftali Bennett's 34.5%, driven by the April 26 announcement of Bennett's "Together" alliance with Yair Lapid that consolidated opposition votes to 25-26 seats in May surveys like Kantar (May 13) and Midgam (May 7), tying or edging Likud's coalition bloc around 50-51 seats. Proportional representation demands coalition negotiations post-election, where Netanyahu's loyal Likud-Shas-Otzma base provides incumbency edge despite October 7 accountability demands, while Bennett attracts center-right voters wary of far-right partners. Gadi Eisenkot trails at 13.4% on security credentials via Yashar. Separation could arise from Eisenkot joining Together, snap election triggers amid coalition strains after Knesset recess, or Gaza-Hezbollah de-escalation boosting Netanyahu's record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
Israeli strikes kill civilians in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
Continued Israeli strikes in Gaza, despite the ceasefire, resulted in civilian casualties, highlighting ongoing conflict challenges under Netanyahu's leadership and affecting his market support.
Apr 27 2026
Israel objects to US-led Gaza Board of Peace appointments
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting diplomatic tensions that influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political challenges.
Mar 18 2026
Netanyahu faces criticism over retouched images of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 44%16%
The revelation of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu's wife sparked an ethics debate, potentially undermining public trust and contributing to a decline in his market probability.
Mar 1 2026
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 64%6%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated regional tensions, with Netanyahu asserting Israel acted alone, affecting his market support amid international scrutiny.
Feb 20 2026
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 60%5%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including demilitarization and reconstruction, impacting his political standing and market odds.
Jan 15 2026
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank underscored ongoing security challenges, influencing market perceptions of his leadership effectiveness.
Dec 10 2025
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 47%5%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, highlighting his role in managing internal tensions which affected his market support.
Nov 20 2025
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, positively impacting his market probability.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a razor-thin contest for Israel's next prime minister after the Knesset election by October 27, 2026, with trader consensus pricing incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu at 40.5% implied probability ahead of Naftali Bennett's 34.5%, driven by the April 26 announcement of Bennett's "Together" alliance with Yair Lapid that consolidated opposition votes to 25-26 seats in May surveys like Kantar (May 13) and Midgam (May 7), tying or edging Likud's coalition bloc around 50-51 seats. Proportional representation demands coalition negotiations post-election, where Netanyahu's loyal Likud-Shas-Otzma base provides incumbency edge despite October 7 accountability demands, while Bennett attracts center-right voters wary of far-right partners. Gadi Eisenkot trails at 13.4% on security credentials via Yashar. Separation could arise from Eisenkot joining Together, snap election triggers amid coalition strains after Knesset recess, or Gaza-Hezbollah de-escalation boosting Netanyahu's record.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent polls show a razor-thin contest for Israel's next prime minister after the Knesset election by October 27, 2026, with trader consensus pricing incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu at 40.5% implied probability ahead of Naftali Bennett's 34.5%, driven by the April 26 announcement of Bennett's "Together" alliance with Yair Lapid that consolidated opposition votes to 25-26 seats in May surveys like Kantar (May 13) and Midgam (May 7), tying or edging Likud's coalition bloc around 50-51 seats. Proportional representation demands coalition negotiations post-election, where Netanyahu's loyal Likud-Shas-Otzma base provides incumbency edge despite October 7 accountability demands, while Bennett attracts center-right voters wary of far-right partners. Gadi Eisenkot trails at 13.4% on security credentials via Yashar. Separation could arise from Eisenkot joining Together, snap election triggers amid coalition strains after Knesset recess, or Gaza-Hezbollah de-escalation boosting Netanyahu's record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
Israeli strikes kill civilians in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
Continued Israeli strikes in Gaza, despite the ceasefire, resulted in civilian casualties, highlighting ongoing conflict challenges under Netanyahu's leadership and affecting his market support.
Apr 27 2026
Israel objects to US-led Gaza Board of Peace appointments
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting diplomatic tensions that influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political challenges.
Mar 18 2026
Netanyahu faces criticism over retouched images of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 44%16%
The revelation of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu's wife sparked an ethics debate, potentially undermining public trust and contributing to a decline in his market probability.
Mar 1 2026
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 64%6%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated regional tensions, with Netanyahu asserting Israel acted alone, affecting his market support amid international scrutiny.
Feb 20 2026
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 60%5%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including demilitarization and reconstruction, impacting his political standing and market odds.
Jan 15 2026
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank underscored ongoing security challenges, influencing market perceptions of his leadership effectiveness.
Dec 10 2025
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 47%5%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, highlighting his role in managing internal tensions which affected his market support.
Nov 20 2025
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, positively impacting his market probability.
"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Benjamin Netanyahu" at 41%, followed by "Naftali Bennett" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" has generated $8.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" is "Benjamin Netanyahu" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Naftali Bennett" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $8.3 million traded on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 41¢ for "Benjamin Netanyahu" in the "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 41% chance that "Benjamin Netanyahu" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 41¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 59¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" market has an active community of 247 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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Frequently Asked Questions