Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran refuses a long-term moratorium—offering only five years against Washington's demand for 20—while insisting on its "inalienable right" to enrich. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's record stockpile of highly enriched uranium at near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%), with limited agency access complicating verification. Iran's May 12 parliamentary statement threatening 90% weapons-grade enrichment if attacked again underscores escalation risks, amid fragile post-war ceasefire talks lacking progress on stockpile removal or halt. Upcoming indirect diplomacy sessions offer slim prospects for resolution by deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$1,349,225 Vol.
$1,349,225 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,349,225 Vol.
$1,349,225 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran refuses a long-term moratorium—offering only five years against Washington's demand for 20—while insisting on its "inalienable right" to enrich. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's record stockpile of highly enriched uranium at near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%), with limited agency access complicating verification. Iran's May 12 parliamentary statement threatening 90% weapons-grade enrichment if attacked again underscores escalation risks, amid fragile post-war ceasefire talks lacking progress on stockpile removal or halt. Upcoming indirect diplomacy sessions offer slim prospects for resolution by deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,349,225End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran refuses a long-term moratorium—offering only five years against Washington's demand for 20—while insisting on its "inalienable right" to enrich. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's record stockpile of highly enriched uranium at near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%), with limited agency access complicating verification. Iran's May 12 parliamentary statement threatening 90% weapons-grade enrichment if attacked again underscores escalation risks, amid fragile post-war ceasefire talks lacking progress on stockpile removal or halt. Upcoming indirect diplomacy sessions offer slim prospects for resolution by deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,349,225End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations where Tehran refuses a long-term moratorium—offering only five years against Washington's demand for 20—while insisting on its "inalienable right" to enrich. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's record stockpile of highly enriched uranium at near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%), with limited agency access complicating verification. Iran's May 12 parliamentary statement threatening 90% weapons-grade enrichment if attacked again underscores escalation risks, amid fragile post-war ceasefire talks lacking progress on stockpile removal or halt. Upcoming indirect diplomacy sessions offer slim prospects for resolution by deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions