Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
MỚI
$56,746 KL.
Jun 26, 2026
June 26
14%
June 27
4%
June 28
6%
June 29
5%
June 30
5%
July 1
4%
July 2
4%
July 3
4%
July 4
3%
July 5
7%
July 6
5%
July 7
6%
July 8
28%
July 9
6%
$56,746 KL.
June 26
$33,239 KL.
14%
June 27
$10,322 KL.
4%
June 28
$2,647 KL.
6%
June 29
$3,594 KL.
5%
June 30
$2,881 KL.
5%
July 1
$563 KL.
4%
July 2
$182 KL.
4%
July 3
$158 KL.
4%
July 4
$305 KL.
3%
July 5
$878 KL.
7%
July 6
$214 KL.
5%
July 7
$2,490 KL.
6%
July 8
$10 KL.
28%
July 9
$22 KL.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Thị trường mở: Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$56,746Ngày kết thúc
Jul 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Khối lượng
$56,746Ngày kết thúc
Jul 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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