A fragile ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered after intense US-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 that severely degraded Iran's military defenses—remains on "life support," as stated by President Trump amid Tehran's efforts to reconstitute ballistic missile forces during the pause. Recent US admiral testimony on May 15 confirmed the strikes' impact, while Institute for the Study of War reports from May 13 highlight Iran's tactical reorganization, fueling trader skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. No direct bilateral negotiations exist; US-Iran talks in Pakistan have stalled over nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, with Israel assessing high risks of renewed military action. Key watchpoints include Strait of Hormuz tensions, proxy escalations, and any ceasefire extensions before potential breakdowns.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$879,442 KL.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
16%
$879,442 KL.
May 31
$247,069 KL.
3%
June 30
$317,758 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered after intense US-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 that severely degraded Iran's military defenses—remains on "life support," as stated by President Trump amid Tehran's efforts to reconstitute ballistic missile forces during the pause. Recent US admiral testimony on May 15 confirmed the strikes' impact, while Institute for the Study of War reports from May 13 highlight Iran's tactical reorganization, fueling trader skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. No direct bilateral negotiations exist; US-Iran talks in Pakistan have stalled over nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, with Israel assessing high risks of renewed military action. Key watchpoints include Strait of Hormuz tensions, proxy escalations, and any ceasefire extensions before potential breakdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$879,442Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered after intense US-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 that severely degraded Iran's military defenses—remains on "life support," as stated by President Trump amid Tehran's efforts to reconstitute ballistic missile forces during the pause. Recent US admiral testimony on May 15 confirmed the strikes' impact, while Institute for the Study of War reports from May 13 highlight Iran's tactical reorganization, fueling trader skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. No direct bilateral negotiations exist; US-Iran talks in Pakistan have stalled over nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, with Israel assessing high risks of renewed military action. Key watchpoints include Strait of Hormuz tensions, proxy escalations, and any ceasefire extensions before potential breakdowns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$879,442Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered after intense US-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 that severely degraded Iran's military defenses—remains on "life support," as stated by President Trump amid Tehran's efforts to reconstitute ballistic missile forces during the pause. Recent US admiral testimony on May 15 confirmed the strikes' impact, while Institute for the Study of War reports from May 13 highlight Iran's tactical reorganization, fueling trader skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal. No direct bilateral negotiations exist; US-Iran talks in Pakistan have stalled over nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, with Israel assessing high risks of renewed military action. Key watchpoints include Strait of Hormuz tensions, proxy escalations, and any ceasefire extensions before potential breakdowns.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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