Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war stalemate, trader consensus prices an Iran coup attempt by June 30 at just 10.5% Yes, reflecting regime resilience following unverified April rumors of IRGC moves against moderates like President Pezeshkian and negotiators amid ceasefire talks. No widely reported coup has materialized since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February assassination and Mojtaba Khamenei's March ascension, with IRGC factions maintaining unity despite US-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockades. Recent May 7 US strikes on Iranian facilities and Trump's rejection of peace proposals have heightened tensions but solidified defensive cohesion rather than internal fractures. Upcoming FIFA World Cup in June and negotiation timelines further dampen near-term coup risks, though mass defections or escalation could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,103,824 Vol.
$1,103,824 Vol.
$1,103,824 Vol.
$1,103,824 Vol.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war stalemate, trader consensus prices an Iran coup attempt by June 30 at just 10.5% Yes, reflecting regime resilience following unverified April rumors of IRGC moves against moderates like President Pezeshkian and negotiators amid ceasefire talks. No widely reported coup has materialized since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February assassination and Mojtaba Khamenei's March ascension, with IRGC factions maintaining unity despite US-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockades. Recent May 7 US strikes on Iranian facilities and Trump's rejection of peace proposals have heightened tensions but solidified defensive cohesion rather than internal fractures. Upcoming FIFA World Cup in June and negotiation timelines further dampen near-term coup risks, though mass defections or escalation could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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