**Iran's political landscape features internal factional tensions but limited signs of an imminent coup attempt.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role amid IRGC consolidation of power. Hardline factions, including elements of the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" through U.S. negotiations, sidelining parliament, and elevating the Supreme National Security Council. These claims surfaced prominently around the late leader's funeral and subsequent ceasefire talks, with critics removed from key committees. The regime has responded by appointing hardline IRGC figures to senior military posts in August 2026, reinforcing control and suppressing unrest. Trader consensus on related markets reflects this stability, pricing low probabilities for a qualifying coup attempt due to institutional continuity and elite coordination rather than open challenges. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomacy and any escalation in regional tensions remain key variables that could influence internal dynamics through year-end.