Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5%, reflecting the regime's resilience amid internal power shifts following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 death. Late April rumors of an IRGC "quiet coup" sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during stalled U.S. ceasefire talks proved unsubstantiated, with officials denying foreign plots and maintaining public operations. Early May reports highlight ongoing IRGC dominance, Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from view, and factional tensions complicating diplomacy, yet no verifiable military dissent, mass protests, or opposition mobilization has emerged. The IRGC's grip on security institutions and historical suppression of challenges underpin the low risk through the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,103,771 Vol.
$1,103,771 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,103,771 Vol.
$1,103,771 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5%, reflecting the regime's resilience amid internal power shifts following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 death. Late April rumors of an IRGC "quiet coup" sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during stalled U.S. ceasefire talks proved unsubstantiated, with officials denying foreign plots and maintaining public operations. Early May reports highlight ongoing IRGC dominance, Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from view, and factional tensions complicating diplomacy, yet no verifiable military dissent, mass protests, or opposition mobilization has emerged. The IRGC's grip on security institutions and historical suppression of challenges underpin the low risk through the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,103,771End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5%, reflecting the regime's resilience amid internal power shifts following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 death. Late April rumors of an IRGC "quiet coup" sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during stalled U.S. ceasefire talks proved unsubstantiated, with officials denying foreign plots and maintaining public operations. Early May reports highlight ongoing IRGC dominance, Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from view, and factional tensions complicating diplomacy, yet no verifiable military dissent, mass protests, or opposition mobilization has emerged. The IRGC's grip on security institutions and historical suppression of challenges underpin the low risk through the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,103,771End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5%, reflecting the regime's resilience amid internal power shifts following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 death. Late April rumors of an IRGC "quiet coup" sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during stalled U.S. ceasefire talks proved unsubstantiated, with officials denying foreign plots and maintaining public operations. Early May reports highlight ongoing IRGC dominance, Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from view, and factional tensions complicating diplomacy, yet no verifiable military dissent, mass protests, or opposition mobilization has emerged. The IRGC's grip on security institutions and historical suppression of challenges underpin the low risk through the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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