Iran's post-conflict political environment features intensifying factional tensions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with hardline lawmakers publicly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of sidelining rivals such as Mojtaba Khamenei and shifting authority to the Supreme Council for National Security during US truce talks. These July 2026 accusations of a "political coup" build on earlier unverified reports of January internal challenges and follow the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests amid economic strain and the February–June war with the US and Israel. Traders monitor elite infighting, any renewal of unrest, or further diplomatic developments through year-end, as no widely reported coup attempt has materialized despite the heightened uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,115,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
December 31
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-conflict political environment features intensifying factional tensions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with hardline lawmakers publicly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of sidelining rivals such as Mojtaba Khamenei and shifting authority to the Supreme Council for National Security during US truce talks. These July 2026 accusations of a "political coup" build on earlier unverified reports of January internal challenges and follow the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests amid economic strain and the February–June war with the US and Israel. Traders monitor elite infighting, any renewal of unrest, or further diplomatic developments through year-end, as no widely reported coup attempt has materialized despite the heightened uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-conflict political environment features intensifying factional tensions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with hardline lawmakers publicly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of sidelining rivals such as Mojtaba Khamenei and shifting authority to the Supreme Council for National Security during US truce talks. These July 2026 accusations of a "political coup" build on earlier unverified reports of January internal challenges and follow the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests amid economic strain and the February–June war with the US and Israel. Traders monitor elite infighting, any renewal of unrest, or further diplomatic developments through year-end, as no widely reported coup attempt has materialized despite the heightened uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-conflict political environment features intensifying factional tensions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with hardline lawmakers publicly accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of sidelining rivals such as Mojtaba Khamenei and shifting authority to the Supreme Council for National Security during US truce talks. These July 2026 accusations of a "political coup" build on earlier unverified reports of January internal challenges and follow the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests amid economic strain and the February–June war with the US and Israel. Traders monitor elite infighting, any renewal of unrest, or further diplomatic developments through year-end, as no widely reported coup attempt has materialized despite the heightened uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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