Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.4% chance of a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027, reflecting Xi's ironclad control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army solidified through ongoing anti-corruption purges. Early 2026 rumors of a failed plot involving senior PLA general Zhang Youxia—allegedly planning Xi's arrest on January 18—proved unverified amid Beijing's opacity, reframed officially as loyalty enforcement rather than internal revolt. Xi's March directive emphasizing political loyalty in the military, alongside no subsequent defections or unrest, underpins this near-certain stability. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, Taiwan escalation fallout, or elite mass dissent, structural barriers like surveillance and party discipline make such an event improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$127,546 Vol.
$127,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$127,546 Vol.
$127,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.4% chance of a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027, reflecting Xi's ironclad control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army solidified through ongoing anti-corruption purges. Early 2026 rumors of a failed plot involving senior PLA general Zhang Youxia—allegedly planning Xi's arrest on January 18—proved unverified amid Beijing's opacity, reframed officially as loyalty enforcement rather than internal revolt. Xi's March directive emphasizing political loyalty in the military, alongside no subsequent defections or unrest, underpins this near-certain stability. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, Taiwan escalation fallout, or elite mass dissent, structural barriers like surveillance and party discipline make such an event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$127,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.4% chance of a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027, reflecting Xi's ironclad control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army solidified through ongoing anti-corruption purges. Early 2026 rumors of a failed plot involving senior PLA general Zhang Youxia—allegedly planning Xi's arrest on January 18—proved unverified amid Beijing's opacity, reframed officially as loyalty enforcement rather than internal revolt. Xi's March directive emphasizing political loyalty in the military, alongside no subsequent defections or unrest, underpins this near-certain stability. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, Taiwan escalation fallout, or elite mass dissent, structural barriers like surveillance and party discipline make such an event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$127,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.4% chance of a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027, reflecting Xi's ironclad control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army solidified through ongoing anti-corruption purges. Early 2026 rumors of a failed plot involving senior PLA general Zhang Youxia—allegedly planning Xi's arrest on January 18—proved unverified amid Beijing's opacity, reframed officially as loyalty enforcement rather than internal revolt. Xi's March directive emphasizing political loyalty in the military, alongside no subsequent defections or unrest, underpins this near-certain stability. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, Taiwan escalation fallout, or elite mass dissent, structural barriers like surveillance and party discipline make such an event improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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