Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army commanders, including the January 2026 removal of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and joint staff chief Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rival networks ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption and loyalty measures, align with trader consensus that organized opposition capable of a coup attempt remains unlikely through 2026. Recent September 2026 social media rumors of troop movements and leadership arrests were rapidly debunked by open-source analysis as originating from unverified opposition accounts, with no supporting evidence from state media or credible reporting. While factors such as sudden leadership health developments or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings, the current structure of institutional oversight and personnel vetting supports the prevailing low probability of a qualifying coup attempt.